Movie Spotlight - Spider-Man 3

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Spiderman, Spiderman,
Does whatever a spider can.
Spins a web, any size,
Catches thieves just like flies.
Look out! Here comes the Spiderman.

And no, I didn't have to look that up on the Internet. That song has been burned into my brain and will stay in my memory long after I forget my own birthday. It's just one sign of the enduring appeal Spider-Man, and how ingrained he is in popular culture. However, while this gives Spider-Man films a huge advantage at the box office, it also means there's a lot to live up to. Spider-Man 3 could literally make $300 million at the box office and still be considered a disappointment. In this article, I'll take a look at its chances.

Spider-Man is one of the most iconic super heroes of all time and his transition to the big screen has been incredibly successful. The performance of Spider-Man movies is even fabulously successful compared to the cream-of-the-crop super hero franchises like Batman, X-Men, and Superman. With such a dominant performance since it first hit theaters, Spider-Man 3's real competition won't be any other movie in release, but mostly with the other films in the franchise.

Spider-Man 3 looks to make the Spider-Man franchise on the of the most successful movie franchises of all time. There is little doubt it will become only the fifth franchise to reach $1 billion domestically, and only the sixth to reach $2 billion worldwide. The real question is, how huge will it be? Can it surpass one or both of the previous movies in total box office, and can it recapture some records the franchise previously owned? As you can see from above, Spider-man 2's opening was 20% lower than the original's, so the studio is looking to rebound there; although, to be fair, Spider-Man 2 did open on a Wednesday, making the comparison a little misleading. $100 million is not out of the question this time, especially given the moviegoers' appetite for big, big hits so far this year. Even more impressive is the legs shown by the Spider-Man movies. Super hero films and sequels normally get smashed by the Fanboy effect, but Spider-man 2 generally matched, and in some respects improved upon Spider-man's already strong showing. This bodes very well for Spider-Man 3's chances to join the $400 million club.

So far, only seven films have crossed $400 million at the US box office. The oldest film to do so was the original Star Wars, which reached the mark just over 10 years ago, during its Special Edition re-release. The first movie to actually reach the landmark was Titanic, while it was powering its way to what still stands as the highest gross for any movie in the US (just a shade over $600 million). The most recent member of the club is last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest. In the time between, Star Wars became the only franchise with two $400 million movies, and of course, Spider-Man made it to that rare milestone after a record-breaking opening.

However, this May there are three films that have legitimate shots at reaching the $400 milliont milestone: Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. Each film is the third installment in its respective franchise, and each franchise has had one of its previous installments reach $400 million. Of course, the films that did reach $400 million didn't have the insane level of competition that these threes will face from one another, but this could still be a very special month.

Spider-Man 3 does have some advantages over the other two films. For instance, it is the first to hit theaters and will have a full two weeks as the prime box office draw. In two weeks, 14 days, the film could get to $300 million and, in doing so, beat Dead Man’s Chest’s 16-day record. Also, the Spider-Man franchise is the only one to see improvement in its reviews from the first installment to the next, with the number of negative reviews dropping 30%. (Shrek was flat while Pirates fell significantly.) On the other hand, it is also the only one of these three franchises that didn't see significant growth in box office from the first installment to the second. In fact, Spider-Man 2 had a US box office total 7.5% below Spider-Man’s.

Where does this leave the film's chances? A $100 million opening weekend should be obtainable, while even a low end estimate has the film pulling in $300 million. But the big question is, will it break $400 million? That's still too close to call.

- C.S.Strowbridge

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