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Tuesday, November 24, 2009
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2004-03-15
It was the third weekend in a row with week-to-week drop-offs, this time it was 18.8%, which is huge for non-post holiday weekend. And only the weakness experienced this time last year is keeping 2004 above 2003's pace. This weekend it was up 10% helping the year-to-date gain increase to nearly 4%. Still not higher than inflation, but it's much better than earlier in the year.
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2003-10-29
viously that MGM had cancelled the planned James Bond spin-off Jinx, which would have starred Halle Berry. And the Oscar winning actress is reportedly furious over this decision. It's not hard to see why she is mad; Jinx was the first of a planned franchise and had a movie pedigree most projects can never hope to match. Even if the movie didn't work and the character couldn't pull off a movie on her own it would still make $40 million for an opening weekend, $100 million domestically, better than that internationally and home market sales enough to push total revenue past $300 million. For a good example of this, see Lara Croft: Tomb Raider's performance. And that's if it didn't work, if it did work revenues could be much higher with many sequels to come.
What makes the decision even more unusual is the reason given, or lack of reason given. The producers were simply told to stop work on the movie. And it's not like MGM has a great track record when it comes to box office hits recently. Since Die Another Day was released and made $400 million worldwide, MGM has released more than a dozen films. And with the exception of two relatively low budget kids' movies (Agent Cody Banks and Good Boy!) and the sequel Legally Blonde 2, none have done well enough to show a profit, even by the time the initial home market is considered.
This isn't the first time this year MGM has made a seemingly foolhardy decision. They previously lost the director to Agent Cody Banks 2 over budget concerns which amounted to only a few million dollars. It's not surprising that MGM reported a loss of $32 million for the third quarter.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-08-15
movies opening wide this week, and with such a crowded market at least two will bomb. And considering the dubious quality of the release, they could all fail to make much of an impact. With so many new openings I'm going to profile them first and then deal with the rest of the top five after.
Freddy vs. Jason - Ten years too late. The Friday the 13th and Nightmare on Elm Street franchises are some of the longest lasting with a combines 17 films between them. But despite this they have less than $450 million domestic box office. That's less than Austin Powers has made in just 3 movies. Predictions for this movie go as high as $30 million, but that's more 10 of the previous films earned in their entire run. And the people who grew up with the franchises have grown up themselves and are unlikely to see another slasher movie. Reviews are about what you would expect, 33% overall and about half that for the cream of the crop. Look for about $15 million this weekend and about $35 million overall.
Uptown Girls - MGM misses again. This is the eighth movie released by MGM/UA this year, and so far only one has beaten expectations (Agent Cody Banks) and one other will be profitable (Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde.) Normally I'd give this movie an extra boost given it's target audience, but this year there has been several movies aimed at similar audiences from What a Girl Wants to The Lizzie McGuire Movie to the more recent How to Deal and Freaky Friday. Unfortunately for MGM, reviews are closer to How to Deal than Freaky Friday. And so will the box office. $10 million this week, but with better legs it could top Freddy vs. Jason's $35 million.
Open Range - The Best reviewed wide release of the week. In fact, its score of 77% is higher than the other three movies combined. Too bad it is also the smallest release of the four opening in just over 2000 theatres. Recently Kevin Costner movies haven't performed well at the box office, and chances are good reviews won't save this one. $8 million opening weekend and good word of mouth will be its only hope.
Grind - Worse reviews that Gigli? As I'm writing this Grind is currently sitting at only 8% positive, which's the same score as Gigli. However, even Gigli had one cream of the crop reviewer give it a positive review, the same can't be said for Grind. The only thing going for this movie is it is relatively unknown, so at least there's no negative buzz surrounding it. $5 million opening weekend before dropping out of theatres by September.
If I lived in Cleveland I'd be checking out American Splendor this weekend. Since I don't I'll see if any of the local theatres are playing Passionada. If not, well, I've got a pretty good DVD collection I could dip into.
Now on to the holdovers.
Repeating at top spot will be S.W.A.T., not due to its quality, just because there's so little competition this week. It will stop roughly 55%, but that still leaves $16 million, good enough for first place.
Freaky Friday will drop one spot to land in third. A weekend total of $14 million will raise its run to nearly $60 million. More than it cost to make and advertise.
Making one more appearance in the top 5 will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. It's just $100,000 from beating Bruce Almighty for third place this year. It is starting to slow down and the race for 2nd place is becoming more interesting. $9 million this weekend will leave it just short of the $250 million mark.
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2003-06-13
cing it was ending negotiations with Tween Queen Hilary Duff, the Wall Street Journal reported Disney chairman Michael Eisner has requested the two sides reopened talks. This could prove a wise move as Disney has some economic setbacks recently. Their traditional cell animation department is not the guaranteed hit maker like it used to be, and they will soon be losing a large revenue source when they renegotiate their relationship with Pixar Studios. In addition, ABC, which is owned by Disney, suffered through another weak season finishing barely ahead of fourth placed Fox.
Meanwhile, Hilary Duff’s career is taking off. Before negotiations began, Hilary Duff was known almost exclusively as Lizzie McGuire having only starred in one theatrical release with Agent Cody Banks. However, since then she has finished filming on Cheaper by the Dozen and is preparing for her role in The Cinderella Story, starting next month. In addition, she is working on her first album, Metamorphosis, set to be released in September and has a new line of cosmetics coming out called Stuff by Hilary Duff. At this rate, the only thing Hilary Duff has to fear is over exposure.
Current demands from the Hilary Duff camp are for $5 million for the sequel and $100,000 per episode. This is on par with fellow Tween Sensation Frankie Muniz, but it is significantly higher than what Disney was willing to pay. How the negotiations go from here could be interesting, Hilary Duff was right when she said, ‘We might not have seen the last of Lizzie.’
Submitted by: C.
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2003-05-05
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The first weekend of summer started a little weaker than last year, but it is still very strong. Of course, it wasn’t long ago when summer didn’t start till Memorial Day.
X-Men 2 easily won with $85.6 million, on the high end of the estimates. Better reviews, and a better internal multiplier than the first movie, suggest X-Men 2 should have better legs. However, the sequel will have stronger competition when The Matrix Reloaded opens in just 10 days. Even with this increased competition, $250 million should be an easily obtainable goal.
Opening in second place was The Lizzie McGuire Movie at $17.3 million, $2 million more than it cost to make. It will still take quite a bit more at the box office till the studios share pays for production and advertising, but it’s well on its way to profitability. The opening for Lizzie McGuire is better than fellow Tween movies Agent Cody Banks, What a Girl Wants and Holes. Factoring in the lower production budget and advertising budgets than any of those, Buena Vista should be very happy. Poor reviews could mean weak legs, but it will take a week or two to determine that.
In third was Identity with $9.4 million. While a drop of 41.9% would normally be considered quite bad, the genre mixed with the extreme competition makes this a better than expected result. Fourth place went to Anger Management which dropped 44% to $8.4 million. Holes came in fifth with just shy of $7 million and now has a total of over $45 million in just three weeks.
On an interesting note, Bend It Like Beckham made it’s first appearance in the top ten in its eighth week of release. The British film made $1.5 million in just 484 theatres to bring its total past the $10 million mark. Not bad for a movie that cost about half that to make.
Note: CinemaScores went to a subscription service, so I an no longer be able to use it in my analysis. Sorry for the inconvenience and I am looking for a replacement.
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2003-04-28
tp://us.imdb.com/Title?0358349>sequel to MGM’s only hit of the year, Agent Cody Banks, is set to begin production next month in London and will have a couple of new faces in front on the camera, as well as behind it.
Anthony Anderson, currently in Malibu’s Most Wanted, has joined the cast as Cody Banks’ special operative handler, similar to the role Angie Harmon played in the first movie. Anthony Anderson has been in a series of projects lately from last September’s Barbershop to a cameo in this summer’s Scary Movie 3.
Not returning for the sequel will be Hillary Duff, and for those who are following her career this can’t come as a surprise. Between promoting her upcoming Lizzie McGuire Movie, (opening May 2nd) and filming Cheaper by the Dozen for a Christmas release and preparing for The Cinderella Story... Where would she find the time? No word on who is set to replace her as Cody Banks’ love interest, but star Frankie Muniz is pulling for Brittany Snow (currently the star of the TV series American Dreams).
Behind the camera, Agent Cody Banks 2 will have a new director. This became necessary when the original director, Harald Zwart left the project due to budgetary concerns. Kevin Allen has been signed to direct the sequel in his place. This will be the first major directing job for Kevin Allen, whose previous credits include the mockumentary The Big Tease.
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2003-04-24
mdb.com/Name?Zwart%2C+Harald>Harald Zwart, who directed the first Agent Cody Banks, has left the production of the sequel over budgetary concerns. The sequel was budgeted at $26 million, $1 million higher than the original. However, Frankie Muniz’s salary reportedly increased from $2 million for the first, to $5 million for the sequel, so the actual amount that will make it on the screen has been reduced somewhat. With this reduction, Harald Zwart felt he could not maintain a high enough level of quality for the final project.
For MGM/UA this must be quite a blow in an already bleak year. Agent Cody Banks was the only film released by the studio this year to perform up to expectations. Their four other releases this year, including the recent Bulletproof Monk, have been disappointments to varying degrees and combined have less than Agent Cody Banks.
There’s no word on who will be taking over as director, or how this will affect the shooting schedule.
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2003-03-28
n, a modern remake of the real life adventures of the Gilbreth family, has gained another daughter. Piper Perabo of Lost and Delirious and Coyote Ugly is set to join the cast playing the eldest daughter. Already set to play some of the children are Tom Welling of Smallville fame, in his first feature movie role, and Hilary Duff, who is also in Agent Cody Banks, The Lizzie McGuire Movie and Cinderella Story.
Playing the mother and father will be Bonnie Hunt of Jumanji and Bringing Down the House funnyman Steve Martin. The director of Big Fat Liar and many, many TV series, Shawn Levy is set to direct. Filming is set to begin shortly with a 2004 release date planned.
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2003-03-24
this year, a movie has finished first in the box office race three weekends in a row. Bringing Down the House racked up another $16.2 million to raise it’s total box office to an amazing $83 million in just three weeks. We’ll see this week if Steve Martin’s stint at hosting the Oscars will help give a bounce to the box office, but it’s hard to imagine it getting any better.
As predicted, in second place was the Stephen King adaptation, Dreamcatcher. It’s $15.0 million opening haul was better than predicted. However, it did have very poor reviews, low CineScores and a genre not known for its longevity at the theatres. So don’t expect too much more out of Dreamcatcher.
In third was Agent Cody Banks at $9.2 million, a drop of 34%. That’s only an average drop for a movie with Agent Cody Bank’s target audience. Better than Spy Kids, but not as good as Spy Kids 2. But with a budget much lower than either of those movies, it should still make the studios very happy.
Fourth place was snagged by the surprising View From the Top. Pulling in $7.0 million can’t be considered a success by any stretch of the imagination. But with its horrid reviews, it’s better than expected. But back to the bad news, View From the Top had awful reviews, a poor internal multiplier, weak CineScores, etc. It should drop faster than Dreamcatcher.
Deja view dominated fifth place as last week’s big military movie disappointment, The Hunted, became this week’s biggest drop-off with just $6.5 million. Just like last weekend when Tears of the Sun was the biggest drop-off after being the previous week’s big military movie disappointment. This should send the makers of Basic into full panic mode, as Basic will most likely be next week’s big military movie disappointment and the week after’s biggest drop-off.
Piglet’s Big Movie was only able to manage 7th place with $6.1 million. Stranger still is it’s lower than expected internal multiplier, especially for its target audience. This is also unusual given its great reviews and very high CineScores. We’ll have to wait till next week to see if this means Piglet’s Big Movie won’t have the legs of the other Disney reduxes.
Barely making the top ten was the fourth release of the week, Boat Trip at $3.8 million. That figure was a little less than predicted and with the audience reactions, don’t expect it to make much more during the rest of its run.
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2003-03-21
ovies are opening wide but will any of them unseat Bringing Down the House as box office champ?
The Contenders:
Dreamcatcher: Opening in nearly 3000 theatres, this Stephen King adaptation is the latest in a long line of Stephen King adaptations. And that’s a mixed blessing. For every Green Mile in Stephen King’s movie career there’s a Mangler. Dreamcatcher is not as bad as that, but its reviews are very poor so don’t look for this one to be a blockbuster. Dreamcatcher should do a little better than $11 million for its opening weekend.
Piglet’s Big Movie: Opening in just 2000 theatres, this Disney redux is the latest in a long line of Disney Reduxes. Follows in the footsteps of The Tigger Movie, Return to Neverland, The Jungle Book 2, etc. Reviews are almost immaterial (but quite good) considering how dependable these movies have been at the box office. Like those movies The Piglet Movie should make around $10 million in its opening weekend and about $50 million overall.
View From the Top: Opening in 2500 theatres … maybe. Miramax has just hours to delay the release of View From the Top for the seventh or eighth time; I’ve lost track. Officially it was delayed due to worries over whether the public was willing to laugh at the airline industry. Rumors were circulating that it was actually delayed cause it just wasn’t funny. And the reviews seem to support the second theory. Reviews are simply awful with Rotten Tomatoes currently showing only 8% fresh. Look for View From the Top to make a $5 million debut before disappearing quickly.
Boat Trip: Opening in just 1700 theatres, and for good reason. Reviews are on par with View From the Top, at only 9% of them positive. Oscar winner Cuba Gooding, Jr. is apparently trying to make people forget just how good of an actor he can be. Boat Trip will make about $4 million this weekend before sinking completely.
And the winner is…
Bringing Down the House: Should bring in another $15 million to become the first movie of 2003 to finish first three weeks in a row.
Agent Cody Banks should remain in the top five, and perhaps Chicago will join him there.
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2003-03-17
www.the-numbers.com/people/SMART.html>Steve Martin / Queen Latifah comedy earned $22 million at the box office and its second straight first place finish. Bringing Down the House dropped less than 30% for its debut last week and has earned a total of $61.3 million. $100 million is all but assured at this point.
Battling for second place were two of the three new releases this week.
After spotting The Hunted a $300 grand lead on Friday, Agent Cody Banks came back to take second place by half a million dollars, $14 million to $13.5 million. Compared to last year’s Big Fat Liar, Agent Cody Banks pulled in a little more than 20% more in the box office with almost identical CinemaScores so look for nearly identical legs. MGM is obviously quite pleased with its performance so far since work on a sequel is already beginning.
The Hunted, on the other hand, will not impress the folks at Paramount. The Hunted had a much higher budget than Agent Cody Bank’s and a lower internal multiplier, weaker CinemaScores, etc. The studio’s share of the box office probably won’t even cover their advertising budget. This is the second weak in a row with an under-performing military movie, perhaps real-life events are affecting the box office of these movies.
In fourth place was last week’s under-performing military movie, Tears of the Sun, which became this week’s biggest drop off in the top 5. Its weekend tally of only $8.7 million is barely more than half of last week’s and brought its total box office to only $30 million so far. This one also won’t pay for the advertising budget.
In fifth place is the unstoppable Chicago. In it’s twelfth week Chicago’s box office climbed nearly 4% without any increase in its theatre count. With the Oscars only a week away a big win could keep Chicago in the top ten for many more weeks to come.
The only other movie to be released wide this week was Willard. The low budget horror was only able to pull in $4 million and should disappear quickly from the theatres. Willard had good critical reviews, but horrid CinemaScores, which usually means the fault lies with the marketing campaign.
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2003-03-11
the-numbers.com/movies/2003/HOUZE.php>Bringing Down the House opened huge last weekend and it looks like Steve Martin’s movie career is going to grow just as huge. Already in production is Shopgirl, based on Steve Martin’s novel and Picasso at the Lapin Agile, based on his successful stage play. And now it’s been announced that he will star in a contemporary remake of Cheaper by the Dozen.
Based on the 1950 movie of the same name, which was based on the real-life story of the Gilbreth family, Cheaper by the Dozen also stars Bonnie Hunt. And yesterday it was reported that Tom Welling and Hilary Duff will be joining the cast. Tom Welling, best known as Superman on the TV series Smallville will make his movie debut playing the eldest son. And Hilary Duff’s role as one of the daughters was written specifically for her, a sure sign of her increasing popularity. Hilary Duff is best known as Lizzie McGuire and can also been seen in Agent Cody Banks, opening this weekend.
Filming is set to begin at the end of the month with a release date sometime in 2004.
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2003-03-01
F=http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2003/CODYB.php>Agent Cody Banks has a sneak preview at nearly a thousand theaters, and that’s is just the beginning for co-star Hilary Duff. After the March 14th release of Agent Cody Banks there’s less than 2 months till she stars in The Lizzie McGuire Movie, the big-screen adaptation of her hit TV show. And now it’s been reported the 15 year old actress will be paid $2 million to star in Cinderella Story. A modern retelling of the classic fairy tale, it was described as a cross between Cinderella and Clueless. Production should start in the summer with a 2004 release date.
In other Hilary news, Disney is looking to move Lizzie McGuire from the Disney Channel to the ABC primetime line-up. It is still in the early stages of planning and much will depend on audiences’ reaction to her upcoming movies. But if all goes as planned, Hilary Duff could quickly become one of the best known young actresses working today.
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2003-01-17
tes have been announced for the following movies:
With March 21 suddenly looking crowded, we can expect some more suffling before the time comes.
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