This weekend only one movie is opening wide, but it should open huge.
Anger Management is opening in over 3500 theatres, and it should be first by a huge margin - maybe even breaking Adam Sandler’s previous record for opening weekend, ($41 million for Big Daddy). Reviews are surprisingly high give Adam Sandler’s track record, or to look at it another way, a little low give Jack Nicholson’s track record.
The next largest opening is Rob Zombie's House of 1,000 Corpses. Opening in only 500 theatres, it won’t land in the top five, and maybe not even in the top ten. Reviews for House of 1,000 Corpses are horrible, so far there has been only 1 positive review out of 7, and no ‘Cream of the Crop’ reviewer has even bothered to review it. Also, there has been a lack of promotion for this film. I’ve seen more TV spots for Bend it Like Beckham, which is in almost 400 less theatres.
Having possibly a better chance to land in the top ten is Ghosts of the Abyss. Opening in only 97 theatres, this IMAX film could pull in $30,000 or more per theatre. If it does it could be the first IMAX film to ever land in the top 10. The closest so far what Fantasia 2000 at 12th place. Ghosts of the Abyss does have some factors that will help out. Specifically, the lack of IMAX openings, (this is the first one since The Lion King almost 3 months ago) and the high level of talent behind it (James Cameron and Bill Paxton.)
Holdovers will dominate the rest of the top five this weekend, with Phone Booth and What a Girl Wants battling for second place. Phone Booth had quite a lead on What a Girl Wants last weekend, but the difference in CinemaScores and their target audiences suggest this week it will be a closer contest. A Man Apart will be slightly farther behind with a moderate to poor drop-off. Lastly, Bringing Down the House should climb ahead of Head of State to stay in the top 5 for the sixth weekend in a row.
he first three places at the box office this weekend, while last weekend’s releases faired poorly in their second week. Box office was down, after climbing last week, and is now just a few million above the weakest it’s been all year. So far it has been a weak year for the movies.
In first place was Phone Booth at $15.0 million, roughly in line with predictions. The Colin Farrell suspense film had very good reviews, but poor CinemaScores. Perhaps people didn’t know what to expect before they bought their tickets. Or perhaps the real-time format was too strange. Either way, this movie won’t have the legs the studio would like. But with a production budget of $10 - 12 million, I don’t think they’ll lose any sleep over it.
What a Girl Wants came in second with $11.4 million, almost the same as Amanda Bynes’s first movie, Big Fat Liar. Reviews were not good, but the CinemaScores were excellent, getting an A+ among the target audience, and even more surprising were the good grades among men of all ages. So this movie should have legs, and $50 million should be a safe bet.
A Man Apart rounds out the three wide releases with $11.0 million, not as much as the studios would have liked, but also not the disaster that it could have been. Dreadful reviews were offset but average CinemaScores, but don’t expect A Man Apart to make back its low production budget of $36 million. (Which is low by Hollywood standards.)
Last week’s 1 - 2 comedy punch finished this week 4 - 5. Coming in fourth was Head of State with $8.6 million. That’s only a 36.5% drop, which is good, not great, but good. Bringing Down the House had its largest weekly drop, but that was still just a 33.4% drop to $8.3 million. That was good enough for fifth place and $111 million total.
The other two movies that opened last week didn’t fair so well this week. The Core lost just shy of 50% and Basic lost a little more than 53%. With only one movie opening wide next week, one or both could remain in the top ten next weekend. But that’s not a guarantee.
The only other movie to open in more than a few cities was DysFunKtional Family. The Eddie Griffin stand-up comedy movie tanked, managing only $1 million. Much less than most analysts predicted.
Head of State and Bringing Down the House battled for top stop at the box office this weekend, while the two other new releases faired poorly.
Head of State came in first with $13.5 million, a good figure when you consider its relatively small budget and the small number of theatres it was playing in. With reasonable CinemaScores, this film should have reasonable legs - nothing amazing, but enough to make the studio heads happy.
Chris Rock’s first attempt at directing has done significantly better than most analysts predicted and should lead to more opportunities to direct in the future.
Bringing Down the House failed to become the first film to win the weekend for weeks in a row since The Fellowship of the Ring. However, it was able to squeak over the $100 million mark by mere thousands. It is only the second film release this year to do so, after How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days did it on Saturday. And it reached the mark in less than half the time.
The Core came in third with only $12.0 million, which is nothing short of a disaster. Its estimated $70 million production and $30 million Print and Advertising budgets means this movie will end up costing Paramount a bundle. This movie failed to live up to analysts' predictions and its chances of sticking around in the top ten for more than one more week are minimal.
Also failing to live up to expectations was Basic, which could only muster $11.5 million. While cheaper than The Core, it still won't see a profit. In fact, after factoring in the exhibitor's share, the domestic box office probably won't cover John Travolta's salary. Expect Basic to lose more than half its box office next weekend before dropping out of the top ten.
Chicago re-entered the top 5 after its big win at the Oscars last week. Its box office climbed slightly to $7.2 million due in part to the increase in theatre count. However, it only increased by about 150 theatres, not the 300 - 400 predicted after its 6 Oscar wins last Sunday. With two of the three openers this week ready for a collapse at the box office, and none of next week's opening films creating much of a buzz, Chicago could stay in the top five for another week.
be the closest weekend in a long time as the top four films are within $600,000 of each other according to early estimates. Leading the way with $4.2 million is Head of State, with The Core ($3.8 million) Basic ($3.7 million) and Bringing Down the House ($3.6 million) all very close behind.
Consider two additional facts. First, holdovers tend to have much better internal multiplier than opening weekends. And second, last Friday Bringing Down the House was behind the first place movie (Dreamcatcher) by half a million before taking the weekend by over a million. So there is a very real chance Bringing Down the House could finish first for the fourth weekend in a row. Something that hasn’t happened since Fellowship of the Ring did it during the winter of 2001 – 2002.
After 3 weeks of box office domination by an escapist comedy, an escapist adventure movie looks set to take over the box office crown.
The Core contains all the elements needed for box office success - special effects, heroism, tough but beautiful women, tough but sensitive men, and a story line that bears almost no relation to reality.
A popcorn-muncher's dream.
Movie theaters figured out this is the kind of entertainment people are looking for right now, and it's booked in 3,017 theaters this weekend, which should give it a strong opening.
Mission to Mars earned $22 million on its opening weekend in March, 2000 in 3,054 theaters, and I'm projecting a $20 million debut for The Core (add a little for ticket inflation, take a little for the generally depressed market at the moment).
Basic is the latest war movie to hit theaters, and looks headed for modest opening numbers, and terrible numbers in the weekends to follow.
I'm projecting a $13 million opening, and a rapid decline to follow.
The final wide release this weekend is the Chris Rock comedy Head of State, which will unspool in a fairly limited 2,151 theaters.
That suggests an opening of no more than $6 million, although it could get a minor boost from being a comedy - a genre that people seem to be seeking out at the moment.
Among the returning movies, Bringing Down the House should manage around $11 million, and take 3rd in the chart.
Dreamcatcher will drop sharply, to around $7 million, giving Chicago a shot at 4th place - it is running at around a 10% increase from last week right now, boosted by its Oscar wins, and should take close to $7 million over the weekend.
k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. This week no site stuck out and screamed, ‘Give me an award!’ They either didn’t have enough information, or didn’t format the information well, or just didn’t strike me as special. I was tempted to simply not give an award this week, but I instead gave it to the best of the rest, so to speak. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details, please.
Assassination Tango
Current Content: Not much here to see, just the bare basics (Synopsis, trailer, etc.) Granted, there might not be a lot of their target audience in cyber-space. But the website still could have been much more engaging
Basic
Current Content: The flash site has a long intro that hits most of the points the trailer does. After that, too much of the focus is on the making of the movie instead of trying to sell the movie. The flash site only has the trailer, while the regular site have the trailer, a photo gallery and six preview scenes. Why these six specific scenes where chosen is a bit of a mystery as they weren’t particularly intriguing. A minor annoyance was the way the buttons expanded on the flash site. If you move from right to left the expanding and contracting buttons become a hindrance.
The Core
Current Content: Quite a lot of information, with all the usual suspects present (Synopsis, Trailer, Cast and Crew Bios, etc.) However, the user interface seems to be based more on ‘Wouldn’t it be cool if …’ rather than what would make a better website. Also, the website would have been a perfect place to explain the science behind the movie, as this is the biggest complaint given in the various reviews, previews, etc. I’ve seen. On the plus side, if you click the panic button you can play a game of pong.
Envy
Current Content: None. Just a placeholder image till the official site is activated later on. Look for an update here when it does.
Head of State
Current Content: Has a lot to offer, but for some reason never seems to come together as a cohesive whole. Which is too bad, cause if it did it would have won the Weekly Website Award. As it is, it’s still worth your time to watch the clips and interviews, read the synopsis and production notes, and make the old white people dance, etc.
Lara Craft Tomb Raider: Cradle of Life
Current Content: The first movie’s site is now the new movie’s site. Just launched, there are more features marked ‘Coming Soon’ then there are currently on the site, but that’s a good thing as it will entice surfers to come back for more. Among the site more unusual features is a countdown to the release accurate to 1/1000th of a second. Hopefully my entertainment planning never needs that kind of precision. On a side note: The sign up form assumed I lived in the United States, and there was no way to change that.
The Lizzie McGuire Movie
Current Content: In addition to the synopsis and the trailer, this website now has a photo gallery, wallpaper and a music video of Why Not by Hillary Duff. There’s also a poster, but you need to agree to Term of Use to download it. I’ve never seen that before. There are more features marked, ‘Coming Soon.’ Not the best site I’ve reviewed, but has good content with no flaws. So it’s the winner of the Weekly Website Award.
Sweet Sixteen
Current Content: Simple site with a good layout. Includes a synopsis, trailer and cast and crew bios. Hopefully as the release date nears more information will be present, especially in the press and awards section.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
