The Numbers - Box Office Data, Movie Stars, Idle Speculation
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Wednesday, November 25, 2009

News Stories About Down with Love

Hulk’s Set to Win Weekend and Smash Records

2003-06-20

are opening wide, only one is making any news.

Everyone is predicting the Hulk will easily win this weekend, and most analysts agree it will break the record for a June opening currently held by Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me at $54.9 million. But how well will it compare to the other monster openers of 2003. Some are predicting The Hulk will beat fellow Marvel Movie X-Men 2. But I think matching Finding Nemo is a more likely scenario. $69 million for an opening weekend, and based on the good reviews, enough legs to get well past $200 million.

The week to week drop-off for Finding Nemo was even better this week than last week. So look for an even smaller drop off this weekend. A box office of $20 million and second place for the year this weekend, after breaking $200 million Wednesday.

Speaking of $200 million, Bruce Almighty was able to cross that milestone on Thursday, completely a week which say it lose very little of its box office. If this trend continues, and it should despite losing nearly 400 theatres, Bruce Almighty should earn $9 million and could overtake X-Men 2 for third place this year.

2 Fast 2 Furious didn’t drop quite as badly during the mid-week, but it is losing nearly 10% of its theatres in just it’s third week. So another 60% drop at the box office should be expected. Still, this leaves it at $8 million for the weekend and just shy of $100 million total box office.

Rugrats Go Wild has held up surprisingly well during the midweek, and a drop of less than 40% could help this movie make a profit, eventually. Look for $7 million on the box office and enough legs to get at least close to $40 million.

Alex and Emma is the second new movie opening wide this weekend. On paper, this movie should be a sure hit. But the terrible reviews, including 0% from the cream-of-the-crop suggest it will be anything but a hit. Look for it to get worse numbers than other ‘also ran’ comedies like The In-Laws and Down With Love. About $6 million and missing the top five is in store.

The last new movie released this week is From Justin to Kelly, which wasn’t screened for critics. Some are comparing it to The Real Cancun; another reality TV turned movie. I think it’s safe to assume From Justin to Kelly will not do quite as badly, with an opening weekend roughly the same as The Real Cancun’s total gross. Or about $4 million, but it may not make the top ten.

Submitted by: C.

Nemo Takes Top Spot, Bruce Stays Almighty

2003-06-02

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For the first time in 2003, the weekend box office totals were significantly above the same week last year. The total box office for the top ten was up nearly 45% from 2002 year. This helped put May in the record books as the best month in box office history. But, even after May's record-breaking performance, 2003 is still behind 2002's total for the year to date.

Opening in first place, with a record weekend for both Computer Animation and a studio best for Pixar was Finding Nemo. The Albert Brooks fish tale earned $70.3 million at the box office, and if the stellar reviews and past Pixar performances are any indications, this movie could pull in close to $300 million domestically, and a little more than that internationally.

Bruce Almighty came in second, and did so with a smaller drop off than expected. $37.3 million was only a 45% decline, which is very good considering the huge opening weekend take and the post-holiday dip. Along the way Bruce Almighty became the largest grossing comedy of the year after crossing the $100 million mark on Thursday.

Third place went to the second of three wide releases this weekend. The Italian Job grabbed up $19.5 million, on par with predictions. Surprisingly good reviews could give this movie legs. However, with a $60 million production budget, and an advertising budget close to half that it won’t see a profit in the home market.

Continuing to drop faster than expected is The Matrix Reloaded, with $15.7 million, down nearly 58% over last weekend. The movie seems to be suffering from The Empire Strikes Back effect, that is to say it doesn't have the novelty of the first movie, and doesn't have the satisfying conclusion of the third movie. Speaking of Star Wars, The Matrix Reloaded is now just a few hundred thousand above Attack of the Clones' pace, despite having a $24 million lead after opening weekend. It will take a surge just before the release of Matrix Revolutions to push this film above $300 million.

Daddy Day Care was able to stay in the top five one last week with a $5.7 million dollar performance. The movie now has made a little more than $80 million in four weeks, and could have enough gas in the tank to cross $100 million.

Opening with a little weaker box office than predicted, but a spot higher was Wrong Turn. $5.2 million is not a lot of money for an opening weekend, but considering a budget of only $10 - $13 million, it should be enough to pull a profit from the home market. The reviews for Wrong Turn were not as low as one might have expected, getting a 50% score from the run-of-the-mill Internet reviewers. However, of the Cream-of-the-crop reviews, of which only four even bothered to review the movie, none of them gave it a positive review.

Coming in less than $100,000 behind in sixth place was X-Men 2 with $5.1 million. The mutant movie sequel just failed to cross the $200 million dollar mark but should do that by Tuesday. That total is enough to pay off the production budget, but it will take a bit more to make a profit domestically. However, add in its impressive international numbers and X-Men 2 has made Fox very happy.

The second Albert Brooks movie in the charts, The In-Laws, fell to eighth place with $3.7 million. It had one of the best drop-offs of the week, but that wasn’t good enough to save it: $14.5 million after two weeks is still a disappointment.

Down With Love dropped faster than predicted with only $1.6 million. Only $17.2 million after three weeks of wide release is quite a shock considering the talent attached to this film.

Rounding out the top ten is The Lizzie McGuire Movie, which was only able to grab $1.2 million this weekend and fell just shy of $40 million total. Fortunately, not only will it cross that mark before long; it will also have covered its total budget as well.

See the full weekend chart

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Can Nemo Find Box Office Success?

2003-05-30

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The weekend after Memorial Day sees three new movies open wide, each with widely difference target audiences and wildly different expectations.

Almost guaranteed to open first is Finding Nemo, the fifth film from Pixar studios. The real question with Finding Nemo is whether it will break records for the studio. It needs more than $62.5 million to better Monsters Inc. opening, which will be difficult - especially considering the post-Memorial Day dip that is historically experienced at the box office. However, Finding Nemo does have a higher theater count (3,374 to 3,237) and unbelievably high reviews going for it. Currently there is only one reviewer on Rotten Tomatoes that is not giving it a positive review. That puts it above both Monsters Inc. and A Bug’s Life, but amazing below both Toy Story 1 and 2, both of which received 100% positive reviews.

Coming in second, and crashing back down to Earth will be Bruce Almighty. The huge first weekend take and a post holiday weekend means this film will drop more than 50%. However, since the film outperformed expectations by such a large margin the first week, a 50% drop will still leave a second weekend box office greater than what the studio were hoping for before it opened.

There will be a close battle for third place between Matrix Reloaded and The Italian Job. The Matrix Reloaded is again tracking well below last week’s performance, which should result in another big drop. However, The Italian Job is only opening in 2,633 theatres, which is a little low. Surprisingly, The Italian Job is currently receiving nearly identical reviews as the Matrix. So look for the two movies to get nearly identical box office takes this week, around $18 million with a slight edge to the newcomer.

Fifth place will also go down to the wire as Daddy Day Care and X-Men 2 fight to stay in the top 5 one more week. Both are shedding theaters, but X-Men 2 is doing it faster. On the other hand, Finding Nemo will surely draw more of Daddy Day Care’s target audience away than from the X-Men. Still, Daddy Day Care has the lead last weekend, and while it will shrink, it should still win this weekend $8 million to $7 million.

Opening in only 1,615 theaters is the horror movie Wrong Turn, which has a plot reminiscent of The Lurking Fear by H.P. Lovecraft. The real surprise with the reviews is not that they’re as poor as they are, but that there are so few of them. As of noon Friday, there were only 6 reviews posted. But the target audience for these films generally doesn’t care about reviews or the lack thereof, so that shouldn’t affect the box office. And with a budget a mere fraction of the other films debuting this week, the studio should still be happy with $6 million and a seventh place finish.

In eighth place will be The In-Laws, which unperformed when in debuted last week and will do the same this week with a little more than $4 million. There are two bright spots for the studio, the movie did have a lower budget than most and it should find a larger audience in the home market.

In ninth place will be Down With Love, which unperformed when in debuted two weeks ago and will do the same this week with a little less than $3 million. Ok, enough of the cut and paste predictions, but the performance of the two previous movies has been very similar. Low expectations, even lower box offices and a quick descent down the charts.

Rounding out the top ten is The Lizzie McGuire Movie, which is shedding theaters faster than its box office pull would suggest it should. Failure to support this film in the long run could cost Disney several million dollars off the final box office figure. Even with the lost theaters it should earn a little more than $2 million and cross the $40 million mark for its total box office. The studio’s share of that figure should cover production and advertising costs.

Submitted by: C.S.Strowbridge

RankMovieTheatersChangeWeeks in
Release
Distributor
1Bruce Almighty3,490+82Universal
2Matrix Reloaded, The3,453-1503Warner Bros.
3Finding Nemo3,374New1Buena Vista
4Daddy Day Care3,128-3444Sony
5In-Laws, The (2003)2,652n/c2Warner Bros.
6Italian Job, The (2003)2,633New1Paramount
7X2: X-Men United2,533-5345Fox
8Wrong Turn1,615New1Fox
9Lizzie McGuire Movie, The1,330-7885Buena Vista
10Down with Love1,300-8174Fox

34Bhoot20New1Spark Media
40Together (Han Ni Zai Yiki)6New1MGM
43Capturing the Friedmans3New1Magnolia


Estimated Theater Counts for Next Week's Openers

MovieTheatersDistributor
2 Fast 2 Furious3,200Universal
Whale Rider9New Market
Eye, The4Palm Pictures

See the full theater

Reloaded Breaks Records as X-Men Tumble

2003-05-19

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As expected, Matrix Reloaded’s opening was huge, but not big enough to keep up with last year when Attack of the Clones opened. After this weekend, 2003 will have fallen another $8 million behind last year’s pace.

While it is true that Matrix Reloaded broke records this weekend, it didn’t break as many as some are saying. This confusion is due to Wednesday’s 10 p.m. previews. Estimates for the Matrix Reloaded preview range from $5 to $9.3 million dollars. Regardless of which figure is more accurate; this did break a record for largest single showing preview. However, this figure was added to Thursday’s box office inflating it past Spider-Man for the largest opening day. Another record that might not be a record was the largest four-day total. Taking Thursday though Sunday we get a total that is on par with Spider-Man’s total of $126 million, depending on how much the Wednesday preview really brought in. Another record broken is largest opening for an R rated movie.

Comparing these figures to the first movie is difficult. The first movie opened slowly as none of the stars had real drawing power. Keanu Reeves was in a slump since Speed, Laurence Fishburne previous best was 14 years earlier, and The Matrix was Carrie Anne Moss’s first major movie. Matrix Reloaded did better on its opening day than the first did on its opening weekend. It made more than 70% of its total box office in just four days. The $92.8 million opening weekend and $134.3 million total are great news, but the lower than expected reviews will probably mean Spider-Man’s total box office of $400 million will not be beat.

In second place, with a surprisingly low drop-off was Daddy Day Care, taking $18.9 million. The Eddie Murphy family friendly movie has now earned $50 million in two weeks, and could be on it’s way to $100 million total.

Dropping 57% on its way from first to third was X-Men 2. The direct competition from Matrix Reloaded hurt it at the box office, but the $17.3 million was more than enough to surpass the first’s total box office. It goes without saying there’s another sequel in the works.

As predicted, Down With Love finished fourth, however, it did significantly worse at the box office than predicted. The 60’s retro comedy earned $7.0 million, less than half of some predictions. Its reviews were quite good compared to most films released this year, but were still shy of the 60% needed for an overall positive rating.

After a larger than expected second week drop-off, The Lizzie McGuire Movie recovered nicely to earn $4.8 million to stay in the top 5 for the third week in a row. For a movie that cost an estimated $25 million to make, and advertise, its box office total of over $32 million should make the studio very happy.

Hanging in the top ten for another week were A Mighty Wind and Bend it Like Beckham. The Folk music mockumentary’s second week in the top ten helped it’s total move past $12 million. Bend it Like Beckham has now been in the top ten for three weeks and its total is now over $15 million.

Submitted by:

How Huge is The Matrix Reloaded?

2003-05-15

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The Matrix Reloaded opens today, and expectations are huge, both critically and at the box office.

It is safe to say The Matrix Reloaded will win the weekend, the real question is by how much? If it doesn’t make more today (Thursday) than the first made during its opening weekend (roughly 28 million) it will be seen as a disappointment. And if it doesn’t break $100 million by Saturday or Sunday at the latest, 2003 will fall further behind 2002 as far as the box office goes. There are a couple of warning signs which suggest Matrix Reloaded won’t be able to handle the pressure. Critically the movie is getting mostly great reviews, but its 78% positive is nearly a full 10 percentage points below the original. Compare that to X-Men 2 which beat the original’s reviews by 7 percentage points. Also, the extreme hype has the potential to cause backlash, and there is some evidence that this is happening. These signs aside, look for Matrix Reloaded to help this weekend be at least on pace with last year.

Dropping to second place is X-Men 2, which currently sits just $2 million behind the original’s total box office. Weekday tracking shows an even larger drop-off is in store for this weekend. However, that could be mitigated by Matrix overflow. X-Men 2 should make roughly $20 million this weekend.

Weekday tracking for Daddy Day Care suggests that a 50% second week drop off could be in the cards. Best case scenario still sees it lose more than 40%, which is not good for a family movie.

Coming in fourth will be the second new opener this week, Down With Love. Opening in only 2,200 theaters and with only moderately good reviews it should grab a respectable $6000 per theater for a total of $13 million. Enough to make the studio happy, but not enough to start a new trend.

In fifth place should be The Lizzie McGuire Movie, with an estimated $4 million. The studios share of the box office is already enough to pay for the production costs, and the P & A budget should be covered in a few more weeks.

Submitted by: C.S.Strowbridge

RankMovieTheatersChangeWeeks in
Release
Distributor
1Matrix Reloaded, The3,603New1Warner Bros.
2X2: X-Men United3,489-2593Fox
3Daddy Day Care3,408+382Sony
4Lizzie McGuire Movie, The2,658-1673Buena Vista
5Anger Management2,476-3436Sony
6Holes2,232-2205Buena Vista
7Identity2,196-4224Sony
8Down with Love2,124+2,1232Fox
9Malibu's Most Wanted811-1,1975Warner Bros.
10Mighty Wind, A770+55Warner Bros.

18Pokemon Heroes196New1Miramax
34Armaan50New1Eros
42L'Auberge Espagnole (US Release)11New1Fox Searchlight
48Sweet Sixteen3New1Lions Gate
51Woman is a Woman, A2New1Rialto
52Beyond Vanilla1New1Strand
53Dracula: Pages from a Virgin's Diary1New1Zeitgeist
54Sea, The1New1Palm/Manga


Estimated Theater Counts for Next Week's Openers

MovieTheatersDistributor
Bruce Almighty3,300Universal
In-Laws, The (2003)2,400Warner Bros.

See the full theater

Movie Websites Launches for May 8 - May 14

2003-05-14

k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.


L’Auberge Espagnole
Current Content: No change from when I first reviewed it. A website is still marked coming soon, but since the movie opens this Friday, they don’t have a whole lot of time.


Battle of Shaker Heights
Current Content: Like all Miramax movie sites, this one has just the synopsis and cast and crew (no bios) and a trailer marked coming soon.


Casa de los Babys
Current Content: This site uses the same format as other films from IFC. The content is also similar with a synopsis, trailers, cast bios, and some behind the scene information.


Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle
Current Content: The first of the animated adventures is up. More episodes will be shown as the release date comes closer.


Down with Love
Current Content: Three clips from the movie are available. They’re fun clips that fit well into the cheesy 60s feel of the rest of the site.


Dumb and Dumberer
Current Content: There’s a slashdot parody called slashdumb.


Freddy vs. Jason
Current Content: A trailer and a quiz have been added to the site.


The Last Samurai
Current Content: None, just the flash intro.


The Matrix Reloaded
Current Content: This is the only site I know that comes with schematics to help you navigate, and you need them. There are literally dozens of buttons, and none of them are marked. However, when you move your mouse over them, the Navigation Display does tell you what it does. Normally this focus on style at the detriment of ease of use would irritate me to no end. However in this case, once I got used to the interface it added to the overall atmosphere. As for the actual content, there’s a lot. 10 different trailers / TV spots, dozens of images, cast and crew bios, posters, wallpapers, etc. Then there are the more unusual aspects, like the 360 degree Quicktime VRs. When you add in all the content from the first movie and other Matrix sources (comic books, anime, video games, etc.) you could surf this site for days. And it’s the combination of style and content that lets this site win the immutable Weekly Website Award.


Pokemon Heroes
Current Content: Like most Miramax films, this site lacks any real content. It does at least look different, but there’s only a trailer and synopsis to keep the surfer interested.


The Punisher
Current Content: None, just a placeholder site. But it does say when the site will launch, June 20th.


Rugrats for Wild
Current Content: Three more Rugrat adults are added to the Spike search game, as are some e-collectibles. However, you have to log into Nick.com to get them.


The Sea
Current Content: This site just has the bare bones, trailer, synopsis and cast and crew (no bios.)


Sinbad - Legend of the Seven Seas
Current Content: A new flash intro was added to the falsh site.


Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
Current Content: Just the trailer and a section on the 3-D aspect / synopsis of the movie.


Sweet Sixteen
Current Content: No changes since I last reviewed the site.


Submitted by: C.

Down With Love Tops Per Theater Chart

2003-05-12

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Fox studios released the romantic comedy Down With Love in one theater one week early, and it earned $45,029 to lead the Per Theater Average chart. Next week it expands to approximately 2,200 theaters.

In second place for the second week in a row was Spellbound; the documentary about the National Spelling Bee Championship saw its average increase by $81 to $17,589.

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Movie Websites Launches for May 1 - May 7

2003-05-07

k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. It’s been a slow week, no new site really jumped out at me and none of the old sites added enough content to warrant the award. But after reviewing each site once more, I was able to come to a decision. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.


Alex and Emma
Current Content: The original placeholder site has been replaced by another placeholder site, with the promise of a flash site to be launched soon. All the previous content is still there (synopsis, trailer, and photo gallery) and there is a poster and some wallpapers in the download section. Screen savers, buddy icons and a short story contest are all marked coming soon.


Cabin Fever
Current Content: So far the only content is synopsis and the teaser trailer. There’s a cast list, but that just links to IMDb. The movie isn’t released for four months, so there’s plenty of time for content to be added. Although right now only Images are marked coming soon.


Daddy Day Care
Current Content: No changes since the last review.


Down With Love
Current Content: The two interactive sections are up. The first section has quizzes and poll (both with one for men and one for women), and Catcher Block’s Bachelor Pad for men to test the Casanova power.


Dumb and Dumberer
Current Content: Some more features were added, including a pop quiz and bunch of trailers to watch. And they mean the kind you pull with your car. There’s also the official trailer offered in several sizes, including the smallest resolution I’ve ever seen.


Freaky Friday
Current Content: This remake doesn’t open in the theatres until August 8th, so the limited content is not surprising. Right now the only content is synopsis, trailer and the poster.


Freddy vs. Jason
Current Content: Right now this site has almost none of the usual features. No synopsis, no trailer, no cast and crew. There are quite a few images, including wallpapers and a poster. There are background sounds that are a little moody, but too short. You can also vote for who you think would win in their duel to the death.


Godsend
Current Content: None. Just a notice saying the site is under construction.


The League
Current Content: The full trailer is up, not just the teaser trailer.


Man on the Train
Current Content: A simple site with a synopsis, trailer, cast and crew bios, and some quotes from critics. There’s very little animation and no sound, which offers little to keep surfers interested.


Rugrats Go Wild
Current Content: Three adults from the Rugrats tribe are added to the Spike Search Game. Also the game, Undersea Adventure is now available.


The Trip
Current Content: This site focuses more on behind the scenes than most sites do. In addition to the usual, there are sections on the origins of the story, the locations, production design, etc. And while the transitions are good, the lack of sound is a distraction.


Wrong Turn
Current Content: This is the first site I’ve seen with a warning for parental supervision. But unless they plan to add a lot more, this has more to do with marketing than with actual content. What content they do have (synopsis, cast and crew bios, image gallery) is well done and the transitions between sections are very good. The slashing animation and sound add to the overall experience. Speaking of sound, once again the background sound is a little short, but it does enhance the surfers’ experience. It is this weeks winner of the indecisive Weekly Website Award.


Submitted by: C.

Movie Websites Launches for April 24 - April 30

2003-04-30

k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.


The Dancer Upstairs
Current Content: A very understated website and I’m not sure if that is good or bad. Too flashy would be a distraction, but as it is it’s not very memorable. Besides the usual synopsis, trailer and cast and crew bios, there are 10 images that can be sent as e-cards and 2 clips from the movie.


Down With Love
Current Content: The movie is set in the 60s, and the website flaunts it. The style, the sound effects, the music all scream 60s, in a cheesy by charming way. Speaking of the music, it loops flawlessly, but some clips are a little short. There’s the usual synopsis, trailer, photo Gallery, cast and crew bios, as well as downloads like wallpapers, screensavers and Buddy Icons. There are two interactive sections, but they are still marked coming soon.


The In-Laws
Current Content: Two new TV Spots were added to the video section. Also, in the non-flash section, there are extensive production notes I failed to mention last time.


The Italian Job
Current Content: A flash site was launched with a section for each character, including the Mini. Each section has an actor bio, image gallery and several facts about heists, traffic jams, Venice sinking and other (marginally) related info. Each fact appears in a pop-up menu but if you move the mouse cursor off of it, it immediately closes. This was quite annoying, especially for the longer bios.


The Lizzie McGuire Movie
Current Content: Added this week was the Lizzie Party Planner, complete with invitations, simple pizza recipe, outfit suggestions and some simple Italian phrases. I found this section the most valuable as previously the only Italian phrase I previously knew was, “Dio mio! C'e' un' ascia nella mia testa!” Two more features, The Music Diva Makeover and Lizzie’s Vespa Tour, are marked coming soon.


New Suit
Current Content: This site has all the usual players, synopsis, trailer, cast filmographies, photo gallery. And it has simple, yet effective intros to each section. However, after the intro, there is no sound. And this is a shame, cause the site would have benefited from a little more sound.


Owning Mahowney
Current Content: Just the usual bits (synopsis, photo gallery, cast and crew bios) with the trailer still marked coming soon. The transition to and from each section is well done and the music, while a little short, is effective.


Rugrats Go Wild
Current Content: This week the four Thornberrys kids are added to the Spike Game. Other features are still marked coming soon.


Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas
Current Content: The trailer is now available.


Spellbound
Current Content: The movie is a documentary about the National Spelling Bee Championships, and the web site plays well to the subject matter. The chalkboard theme is not only fun, but doesn’t interfere with the information. Most of which focuses on the eight contestants from the movie. There’s also the synopsis, trailer, crew bios, release dates and a game of Hangman that I found strangely addicting.


Veronica Guerin
Current Content: So far just the synopsis, trailer and cast and crew (no bios.) But the film won’t be released for nearly half a year, so there’s plenty of time to add more.


X-Men 2
Current Content: This site is as huge as they come. Tons of animations and sound, information on cast, crew and characters, trailers, video clips behind the scenes, press conferences, etc. This is what a movie site should be. Of course, the people at Fox probably spent more on this site than the production budget of some of the other films on this list. But never let it be said that the incontrovertible Weekly Website Award can’t be swayed by flashy graphics.


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