The DVD Release Report finally comes out this week after a couple of delays. At least it is worth the wait as one of the most anticipated films of the year, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, comes out on both Two-Disc Collector's Edition and Blu-ray. This release is clearly the DVD Pick of the Week, on either format, while there are so many other releases that the list had to split into two. You can find the second part here.
It's the first busy week of the month, and it won't get this busy again for the rest of summer. There is literally a hundred releases mentioned on this week's list, roughly half of which are coming out to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of John Wayne. However, while there were plenty of those releases coming out, it was another classic movie to win the DVD Pick of the Week. That classic film is The Third Man - Criterion Collection - 2-Disc Edition - Buy from Amazon.
There hasn't been much news lately with IMAX releases since the last IMAX only release opened January. There have been a few IMAX Experiences of major Hollywood releases, but they only announce those box offices when a record is broken. Like now.
It's not a question of whether Spider-man 2 will open big; we all know it will. It's not even a question of if records will fall; we all know that will happen as well. It's a question of how many records will Spider-man 2 break, and by what margin.
Both opening films were unable to reach expectations and because of this we saw a relatively flat performance week-to-week of just 6.8%. And compared to last year's monster opening for The Matrix Reloaded this year was down an amazing 26.5%. Year to date now has 2004 up by just 1.2%, half the estimated ticket price inflation and unless Shrek 2 opens huge next weekend this year will dip below last year's pace.
This week looks reasonably stronger than last week, but nothing like this time last year when The Matrix Reloaded opened. Still, as long as we can see significant growth each weekend in May, then 2003 should maintain its lead on 2004.
Several readers have written in and asked why the story in front of the IMAX top five hasn't been updated in over a year.
There are two answers to this question. Firstly, the IMAX Corporation stopped publishing separate IMAX figures for movies released both in IMAX and regular format. This meant that for the biggest IMAX releases of the year, (Ghosts of the Abyss, The Matrix Reloaded, etc.) there were no box office figures. No box office figures, no box office news.
Another good news bad new weekend. Bad news, the total box office was down 8% from last weekend. Good new, it was up 31% from last year. Good news, 2004 has finally surpassed 2003 year-to-date. Bad news, that's due to inflation as admissions are still lower. Really bad news, the jump is thanks entirely to one movie, or the controversy surrounding one movie.
For the first time since it was released, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King had some stiff competition for top spot on the charts. It did still take first place for the fourth weekend in a row with $35.3 million in 51 markets. Including wins in head-to-head competition with second place The Last Samurai. For instance, Return of the King's fourth weekend easily won in the U.K. $6.7 million to Samurai's $4.9 million. It was a closer contest in Germany, but King remained number one $5.5 million to $4.9 million. But with only a couple of mid-level openings this week in Indonesia and the Czech Republic it could drop out of first place next weekend. Its international total $455 million, second for the year surpassing The Matrix Reloaded by less than $1 million and putting it in a virtual tie with The Lion King for 10th all-time. Worldwide it hit $767, which is also second for the year but 13th all-time.
As it has since it was first released, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King had a commanding win at the international box office. This weekend's numbers were $58.7 million from 8,826 screens in 45 territories, more than double Finding Nemo in second place. Highlights include $2.3 million opening in Poland and just shy of $1 million opening in Argentina, as well as $13.7 million in the U.K. and $10 million in Germany. Totals for Return of the King now sit at $390.4 million outside the US (3rd for the year, 13th all-time) and $680.8 million worldwide (3rd for the year, and 15th all-time). By next week it should be the highest grossing film for the year.
This week there are no new wide openings, so the top five should look a lot like last weekend. This includes another winning weekend for Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. The lack of new releases is not uncommon for this time of the year, nor is the number of potential $100 million movies. Of the top five, one has already crossed $100 million and three more could follow.
In just a dozen days of release, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King has already accumulated nearly half a billion dollars. And it is still going strong. This week it commanded $84 million from 38 markets, including $12.5 million from both the U.K. and Germany. It already has more than half the total box office of both its predecessors, and it has yet to open in major markets like Japan and Italy. Internationally, Return of the King has pulled in $268 million, just behind fourth place The Matrix Revolutions for the year and 33rd all time. Worldwide, it has $490 million and that's good enough for fourth for the year and 32nd place all-time. By next week, it will be in the top 20 in both.
The first figures for Lord of the Ring: Return of the King are in, and they are record breaking. The film earned an amazing $8 million from 2100 midnight showings. That surpasses the previous record of $5 million The Matrix Reloaded took in, however, The Matrix Reloaded needed more than 600 more theatres to do so.
story internationally this week, and that was the performance of The Matrix Revolutions. Not surprisingly, it was tops on the international box office. Its international take was $117.6 million since Wednesday, just ahead of the previous record of $113.2 million The Matrix Reloaded took in its second weekend of international release. However, Revolutions was shown on more than 1000 addition screens, so its per screen average was lower. Worldwide, The Matrix Revolutions took in $201.4 million, just shy of the $201.8 million Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers earned in its first five days of release. In a country by country comparison, The Matrix Revolution's performance was mixed compared to Reloaded's. However, even in countries where it was weaker, it held up much better than it did domestically.
After two weeks on top Intolerable Cruelty drop to second with $6.5 million. The film has only earned a disappointing $33.5 million domestically, but has already beat that internationally already with a few more significant opening in the coming weeks.
Kill Bill: Volume 1 was killed at the box office dropping from $8.9 million to just $3.3 million. It should recover this weekend when it opens in South Korea.
This should be the last slow weekend for Finding Nemo. It hasn't had an international opening since it debuted in the U.K. more than a month ago, so the fact that its still in the top five with $3.1 million is quite a feat. However, this week Finding Nemo opens in four mid-ranged European markets before major openings in Germany, France, Italy and then Japan in quick succession. So it should be making waves at the international box office very soon.
With just $2.9 million, Bad Boys II has probably had its last weekend on the top five. At least till it opens in Japan on the last weekend of November.
ions made on Friday were beaten at the box office, (albeit mostly by very slim margins) but the one movie that failed to live up to predictions did so by such a large margin that it wiped out the gains of all the other movies. Even with The Matrix Revolutions under-performing, we still saw a huge increase from last weekend (up nearly 50%) but a much smaller increase from last year (up just 6%, roughly the average increase in ticket prices.)
Even lowered expectations after Wednesday's and Thursday's weak performance were too high as The Matrix Revolutions failed to crack the $50 million milestone for its opening weekend. The $48.5 million was just above Scary Movie 3's opening two weeks ago. Its three day weekend was barely more than half what The Matrix Reloaded made during its three day opening weekend, and The Matrix Revolutions earned almost 40% less during its first five days than The Matrix Reloaded earned in the first 4 days. It is important to keep in mind that this is still a good opening weekend, it's just not the massive hit most people were assuming it would be. But why didn't The Matrix Revolutions live up to expectations? It was mostly do to great expectations, when the film didn't break any new ground it was attacked. This led to very poor reviews and bad word of mouth. How well will it do for the rest of its run? It's a little too early to know for sure, but it will still be one of the biggest movies of the year. It will just be closer to X-Men 2 than Finding Nemo. And The Matrix Trilogy will go down in history as one of the most successful movie franchises of all time.
Elf could be the real story of the weekend. Costing just a fraction of The Matrix Revolutions, Elf earned $31.1 million for its opening weekend. Thus ensuring Christmas movies will open earlier and earlier each year till we're surrounded by the holiday all year long. Moving on … Elf's family friendly nature and excellent reviews should bode well for this movie's legs and it should top last year's early Christmas entry, The Santa Clause 2.
Brother Bear earned slightly more than prediction with $18.5 million, off just 4% from last weekend. However, it did have an extra day to earn that $18.5 million as it opened wide last weekend on Saturday, not Friday. Comparing this Saturday and Sunday to last Saturday and Sunday and we see a roughly 25% drop. Still good, but not spectacular given its target audience.
After earning $48 million during its opening weekend, Scary Movie 3 has struggled to reach the $100 million milestone. If it fails, it will be the only movie to open with $40 million or more that has failed to reach that mark. Fortunately for all those involved, it held up better during its third weekend than it did the previous weekend. $10.8 million is still a 46% drop, but it does all but guarantee $100 million at the box office. If not by next weekend, then it will earn it by the weekend after next.
Radio continues to show strong legs with $7.2 million. However, even with strong legs its total box office of $36 million is just above its production budget. Add in P&A and the theatres' cut and Sony will have to wait for strong home market sales before they see a profit.
Love Actually has sleeper hit written all over it. After a successful preview, it opened this weekend with $6.9 million, a bit higher than Sunday's Studio estimates. All this was done in fewer than 600 theatres to give the film a per screen average of just shy of $12,000. Love Actually should climb into the top five next week when its theatre count doubles. And the overall positive reviews should help it maintain its box office as we head into the holiday season.
ed the final two films in The Matrix Trilogy would be released so close together most people were excited. However, after The Matrix Reloaded opened huge but fell fast at the box office the box office potential for The Matrix Revolutions had to be rethought. Wednesday brought some relief, single day box office numbers were great, not excellent but great. Then Thursday's numbers took a huge hit; down from $24.3 million to just $11.0 million or a 55% drop. Still, Friday's number should be double Thursday's and the rest of the weekend should have close to a 3.0 multiplier. $65 million weekend and $100 million by Sunday, as I predicted on Friday. The Matrix Reloaded's $282 million was probably out of reach, but $250 million was easily attainable.
That changed when Friday's estimates were just announced. On Friday, The Matrix Revolutions was only able to make $16.7 million, an increase of just over 50% from Thursday. With that news estimates have to be revised to less than $50 million this weekend, with $200 million at the top of the domestic estimates.
There's a word for this, and that word is, 'backlash.'
Fortunately for Warner Bros. the early international numbers are looking much stronger. But we'll have to wait till Tuesday for more details on that front.
://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2003/MTRX3.php">The Matrix Revolutions opens today throughout the US and Canada in a block-busting 3,502 theaters.
That includes an unprecedented 59 IMAX screens, marking the first time a major movie has opened simulatneously in IMAX and regular format theaters.
While anything over 3,500 theaters would be incredible just 2 years ago, that puts Revolutions a relatively modest 15th on the all-time list of widest openings (see the top 10), and about 100 theaters behind Reloaded's debut number.
That's a reflection of the relatively soft performance of Reloaded, after a great opening weekend, but won't be a deterrent to a huge fan base that has been waiting for the conclusion of a sci-fi classic.
Expect packed theaters and long lines t
ou talk to, The Matrix Revolutions is either the most anticipated film of the year or number two behind Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. And earlier in the year box office analysts would have been predicting record-breaking box offices. But after the disappointing performance of The Matrix Reloaded, Revolutions' box office potential less clear. (It is worth noting that despite earning nearly $300 million domestically and nearly $750 million worldwide, The Matrix Reloaded was still considered a disappointment. This says more about the expectations put on the movie than about the quality of the movie itself.)
The unrealistic expectations and The Matrix Reloaded's inability to live up to them are also hurting The Matrix Revolutions critically. Currently, its reviews are only 38% positive, well below the 86% of The Matrix and 73% of The Matrix Reloaded. This backlash will no doubt affect the box office, but more in the long run. Look for The Matrix Revolutions to earn roughly $20 million tonight and to cross $100 million by Sunday.
The film also opens in 80 markets internationally, and should become only the second film to break $100 million internationally in a single weekend. The last film to do so was The Matrix Reloaded.
tarted much slower than predicted. Not only did the two new movies fail to deliver at the box office (or critically), none of the holdovers managed to perform well either. Not only was the weekend the weakest of the year so far, it was arguably the weakest in the past several years. The total box office was down 35% from last week and 7% from last year.
Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star was in a close battle to win top spot at the box office this week. It did come in a bit lower than expected with only $6.7 million, and with very poor reviews don't expect much more than that for the rest of its run. On the positive side, with a production budget believed to be under $20 million it could show a profit from the home market.
While a drop of 57% is massive no matter how you look at it, it wasn't as massive as predicted. Combined with the poor showing of the rest of the holdovers, that led to Jeepers Creepers 2 dropping only one spot to second place with $6.6 million.
With the best drop-off in the top five, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl climbed two places into the top three. Its 9th weekend grab of $5.3 million was also enough to vault it over The Matrix Reloaded into second place for the year and 19th on the all time chart.
Still one weekend away from the coveted $100 million club, Freaky Friday earned another $5.0 million at the box office.
S.W.A.T. managed one last weekend in the top five adding another $4.6 million to its total.
Both the early reviews and the box office for The Order were a little better than expected. Reviews were at one time at 28% positive, nothing to brag about, but not the complete disaster. However, they have since come down and are now at 10% including 0% from the Cream of the Crop. And its opening weekend take of $4.4 million is better than expected. But when compared to an estimated production budget of $35 million, a few hundred thousand more at the box office is essentially meaningless.
American Wedding dropped out of the top ten this week, but it was able to cross the $100 million mark. That's enough to cover the production budget and a bit of the advertising. Add in its international run, which has barely started, and you have a profitable performance.
the international box office was Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. This weekend's total of $20.5 million also helped the Disney adventure movie pass the $100 million mark internationally. The total was earned with a number one opening in Russia and several low drop-offs in other key markets like the U.K. and France.
Continue to perform well in a limited number of markets was American Pie: The Wedding. The latest in the American Pie trilogy has only opened in 5 markets, but its weekend take of $12.3 million was good enough for second place.
Winding down its international run, Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines finished third with $10 million. It is now just a couple of weeks from $250 million internationally and $400 million worldwide.
Also in international box office news, The Matrix Reloaded reached $450 million internationally. It will be interesting to see how well Finding Nemo can perform in comparison. We will know more after next weekend as Finding Nemo opens in Australia on the28th.
onelook.com/?w=Schadenfreude&ls=a>Schadenfreude is a German word that doesn't have an English equivalent. It means the joy derived from the misfortunes of others. The entertainment industry is full of example of Schadenfreude at work, and I don't mean Moe poking Larry in the eyes.
The Matrix Reloaded is a perfect example. Here is a movie that made $90 million in its opening weekend, nearly $300 million domestically and over $700 million worldwide. This movie is a success by any definition of the word. But what gets the most press? The big second week drop-off and how it lost to Finding Nemo for the summer crown.
But Schadenfreude was taken to a new level with the release of Gigli. Predictions for failure were written with almost overwhelming glee. And when it had record second weekend drop-off of 82% you could feel the smugness when entertainment journalists wrote about it. (Did you know its per theatre average was only $306? That put it in 100th place out of 103 films.) And now a Boston Radio station is creating a promotion around the spectacular failure. WBCN has bought out that last showing of Gigli in the city and will be giving away all 130 tickets to lucky listeners who can win a, 'I Survived Gigli' T-shirt just by staying till the end of the movie.
I don't think we’ve seen such Schadenfreude attached to a movie since Battlefield Earth.
EF=http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2003/TERM3.php>Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines has peaked at the international box office. This week its figure dropped nearly $10 million to $25.6 million despite seeing a significant increase in prints to 6489. At this rate it is still one weekend away from hitting $200 million internationally.
Finding Nemo Watch: International Edition is still waiting for break out performances in major markets. It has already become the highest grossing animated movie in several markets including Mexico and Brazil. However, it won’t really take off till it opens in more major markets like Australia on August 28. Its total international take s is less than $60 million and would need to finish at or near $400 million to overtake The Matrix Reloaded as 2003's Worldwide Champion. Something that is in real doubt at this moment.
//www.the-numbers.com/movies/2003/MTRX2.php>The Matrix Reloaded dominated the international marketplace for over a month, 4 films have held on to top spot in the last 5 weeks.
Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines rose to first place in its third week of release in the international market. An increase in markets to 21 helped Terminator 3 earn $18.2 million in and raise its total international take to $55 million.
Despite being in nearly three times the markets and on over four times the screens, Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle came in second place. The $17 million it did earn did let it cross the $100 million mark internationally. After the weekend it was roughly $1.5 million from hitting the $200 million milestone worldwide, something it should have crossed by now.
Also doing well is Bruce Almighty, which earned another $10 million to pass Liar Liar has Jim Carrey's third best international run. And it still has many more openings to come.
e comedy, Bruce Almighty ruled the international box office. This week another movie with an angelic theme was tops. Boosted by openings in 32 international markets, Charlie's Angels 2: Full Throttle led the way with $22.3 million. The movie opened first in a number of key markets, including Australia and Italy. However, it was Charlie's Angels performance in some of the 11 holdover markets that should impress the studio the most. Small drops in markets like Japan and South Korea indicate that, unlike its domestic run, this movie could have international legs.
In other international box office news, The Matrix Reloaded passed the $400 million milestone this weekend, and then some. It's total is now $410 million, putting it ahead of last year's Spider-man into tenth place on the all time international chart.
dnesday’s and Thursday’s numbers, this situation this weekend is much clearer. And all three of the new movies have had their estimates reduced.
Coming in first this weekend will be Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, but not with the numbers the studio was hoping for. $12.4 on Wednesday was significantly below initial predictions. It was also below current July 4th record holder, Men in Black II. However, Terminator 3’s Wednesday to Thursday drop-off was much better, (just 4.43% compared to 11.32%) and Terminator 3’s reviews are also much better, (71% to 38%.) Terminator could come from behind to earn the $52.2 million needed take the record, but it will be very close.
In comparison, Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde beat estimates, albeit by just $147 thousand, but then dropped farther on Thursday than expected. With the two factors almost balancing each other out, it should fall just shy of the original prediction with $27 million.
The first of the holdovers, coming in third will be Charlie’s Angels 2. Given the sequel effect, recent history and poor word of mouth, this movie is almost guaranteed to lose more than 50% this weekend. And with direct competition in both the action genre and the female demographic, this movie will lose much more. We’re not talking a Hulk like collapse, but $15 million is still a big drop.
In a summer dominated by huge drop-offs, Finding Nemo has been one of the few exceptions. It continues to do strongly and is set for $10 million in its sixth weekend of release. That will not only give it top spot for computer animated movies, it should also give it the overall lead for 2003, passing The Matrix Reloaded.
Rounding out the top five is The Hulk, which is continuing its downward spiral. Granted, this week it will only drop a little more than 50% to $8 million, not the 70% drop that happened last weekend. Even with this decline, there still is talk of a sequel. (Although a sequel would probably do much better. After all, the first Hulk comic book series was cancelled after 6 issues.)
Doing much worse than analysts predictions was Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas, which managed only $1.5 million on Wednesday. It did improve on Thursday, but not enough to get much more than half the original prediction of $14 million. Traditional cell animation was in trouble before this, and since Sinbad will only get a little more than $10 million after Sunday, studios could drastically cut back on future productions.
mmer box office crown has seen a passing of the torch, of sorts. Finding Nemo has earned $258,988,352 in 33 days. In contrast, 33 days into its run The Matrix Reloaded earned a paltry $258,191,894, a full $796,458, or 0.31% behind Find Nemo’s pace. In terms of total box office, Finding Nemo is still $10.7 million behind, but at the rate it’s catching up it will be #1 by the end of the weekend.
Reloaded is not longer dominating the International Box Office, several films are all vying for their piece of the pie. Coming in first in its fourth week of international release was Bruce Almighty with $23.9 million. The divine comedy earned its box office in 17 markets on 2,414 screens, which is an excellent per theatre average for the international market.
Charlie’s Angels 2 managed second place thanks to opening first in 9 of 11 markets, mostly in Asian markets. The Hulk came in third with $11.3 million, again mostly thanks to new openings. In markets where The Hulk debuted last week saw very large drop-offs mimicking its North American results. Also dropping fast is 2 Fast 2 Furious, which still came in fourth with $11.1 million despite losing more than half its box office in most markets.
One last note, The Matrix Reloaded earned another $9.9 million to raise its total to $397.2 million. It will cross the $400 mark any day now.
3 and it’s time to look at the state of the movie industry, and the news is decisively mixed. The overall box office is down approximately 1.5% while the average ticket price has increased more than 2.5%. And there’s no monster hit like last year’s Spider-Man. But despite this, so far in 2003 just the top ten movies represent almost 40% of the box office. (Up nearly 4 percentage points from last year.)
Good news is the dramatic increase in the number of $100, $200 million movies, and the number of $50 million openings. All are double what they were this time last year. Also good news, production budgets seem to be coming down, closer to 2001’s figures.
But even with lower average costs, of the 60 movies that received a wide release, only about half made more at the box office than it cost to make. Factor in P&A budgets and theatres’ share and only a handful will make a profit domestically.
ttp://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2003/MTRX2.php>Matrix Reloaded made its sensational debut in May, no one could really tell how far THIS rabbit hole would go.
But it soon became clear that Reloaded was a big thing, Critics say it has dropped off to quickly in the US. Nonsense,
reloaded has stuck in the top ten for 40 days. Thats a Long time for any flick to stay in that reigon, and its takings offshores are still strong despite the same stiff competition that knocked it off the US top rolling out across the world. But reloaded is set to stop at around 720-740 Million, depending on US performance in the months to come. "2 Fast 2 Furious" furiously smashed in at number one in the uk after extensive advertising. It took $2.7 Million($4.5 Million) for its first weekend, but Reloaded only took 660k. But with a healthy $30 Million ($50.5 Million) from the UK alone in its bank, And no sign of slipping to let the nearest rival, Identity, overtake it, Reloaded should stay in the top three for a few weeks yet.
But Identity has started out strong, knocking Anger Management down to fourth. The movie has opened to brilliant reviews and good buzz, being likened to intellegent hits like "The Usual Suspects" it did take a fairly healthy $51 Million in the us, enough to cover its budget.
But the main competition for all, sure to crush the other grosses, its the mega-hyped and Uber advertised "Bruce Almighty" which hits cinemas this friday in the UK. With three weeks of pre-release advertising under its belt, Bruce is sure to demolish the box office competition, In previews alone in limited theartres this weekend, it took an astonishing $1.8 Million($2.9 Million).
The hit comedy looks like its legs will be challenged too, with Charlies Angels 2 making its debut the week after Bruce's release, it will just show how Mighty he is. One things a dead cert, 2 Fast wont be Furious enough to fight of Bruce and The Angels, its expected to drop to fourth when Bruce is released. Reloaded could make big dropoffs, but due to a surprisingly strong UK support base, its likely to fluctuate between 2-4th positions for a while.
Elsewhere on the UK Charts, Igby Goes Down, the "Indie-Teen Movie Of The Year" rose a place, knocking X-2 down to 11th while it nestled into the top ten. And John Travolta's "Basic" debuted with an embarrasing £248k ($412k) Weekend, while a good figure for UK, the number was much lower than the millions expected, but the critics trashed the return of travolta, "Connie Nielsen is like a walking acting folio, she morphs her accent more than she blinks, and Travolta is totally outshone by Jackson"
Bringing Down The House slipped three places in the charts. The Queen Latifah hit had not mirrored the huge success it enjoyed in the US, it is expected to close in the UK at around $5 Million.($8.3 Million)
British Classical Diva, Charlotte Church's acting debut, "I'll Be There" is also opening soon, but reviews have been mixed, one speaking on Church-"Is worse than Madonna and makes you realise Britney wasnt that bad in Crossroads" and another on the same subject "Church is up to the role, it was written with her personality in mind, so the acting wasnt challenging, and it shows"
the-numbers.com/movies/2003/MTRX2.php>The Matrix Reloaded continued to lead the international markets this past week, and in the process climbed into the top 20 all-time list. In fact, it is now just behind Forest Gump and Armageddon for 13th place, which it could reach sometime during the week. The next milestones for the intermediary installment of the Matrix Trilogy will be $400 million, and then a place in the top ten. But at this stage, The Matrix Reloaded is unlikely to get much farther than that.
the-numbers.com/movies/2003/MTRX2.php>The Matrix Reloaded broke records when it opened in Japan this past weekend. On May 31st it earned $4 million, which was a new record for single day previews, and The Matrix Reloaded’s $7.5 million was the largest for two day preview. $18.7 million, including previews was a new record for opening weekend, and without previews it was the third largest opening in Japanese history. The two largest openings belong to both Harry Potter movies, both of which broke $100 million total box office in Japan.
With the help from its record setting performance in Japan, The Matrix Reloaded was able to lead the International Box office race, again. It made $42.3m on nearly 10,000 screens in 63 markets to bring its total to over $300 million.
opening wide, this could have been a slow week at the theatres. And while the box office did drop from last week, it was more than 50% above the same weekend last year.
The pseudo-sequel 2 Fast 2 Furious blasted off the starting line with nearly $20 million on Friday, but it Saturday figure dropped by 6.5%. And the final weekend number was $50.5 million, $2 million below Sunday’s Studio estimate. Those figures would suggest this movie will have horrible legs, but the drop off was better than the original’s and the internal multiplier was only slightly worse. Still, with weaker reviews and lower user ratings on both The Numbers and IMDb it is unlikely that 2 Fast 2 Furious will be able to maintain its early numbers. And considering its production budget is double the first’s, that’s bad news for the studio.
Finding Nemo dropped to second place, despite leading for Saturday and Sunday. Its second week drop-off was greater than Monsters Inc., however Finding Nemo did have much stronger competition. Either way, $46.6 million for its second week is still great.
In third place was Bruce Almighty with $22.4 million. The movie’s total of just over $170 million in only three weeks is amazing, and it will make a profit from its US theatrical distribution alone, even after advertising and the theaters' take is taken into account.
Down to fourth, but holding up well was The Italian Job, which was down just a little more than 32% to $13.2 million. Granted, part of that is due to the nearly 250 theaters added to its count. But even taking the increased theater count into consideration, The Italian Job dropped less than 40%.
The Matrix Reloaded finished fifth with just $9.2 million, well below the original’s take at this point in its run. Even the IMAX version opening was a disappointment taking in only an estimated $700,000 on 39 screens.
Only one movie is opening this week, and that should mean good news for that movie. But it’s better news for the holdovers.
Taking into account the lack of competition, the excellent mid-week number and the phenomenal word-of-
mouth and Finding Nemo should finish first for the second week in a row. A drop of less than 40% is expected with a box office of $50 million not out of the question.
The only wide opening this week is 2 Fast 2 Furious, which is a sequel in the loosest definition of the word. Only one star from the first is in the second, there’s a new director, new writers, new producers, etc. How will all of these changes affect the box office? If the reviews are anything to go on, 2 Fast 2 Furious won’t be able to live up to the original. It is getting much weaker reviews than the original, especially among the Cream of the Crop reviewers. Still, it should at least come close to the original’s opening thanks to the sequel effect. Look for nearly $40 million, but absolutely no legs.
Bruce Almighty, already the highest grossing comedy of 2003, will continue its strong run with about $25 million for third place. It just failed to cross $150 million yesterday, but by the time you read this, it will have hit that milestone.
There’s quite a drop between third and fourth place, with The Italian Job getting about half of Bruce Almighty. The predicted $13 million is less than a 40% drop, which is a good sign. But the movie cost too much to pull a profit from the home market.
The Matrix Reloaded will fall to fifth place with just $10 million. You know a movie has high expectations when nearly $250 million in five weeks is considered a disappointment.
On a side note, after a two-week absence Bend It Like Beckham should reappear in the top ten.
box office figures for the Matrix Reloaded mirrored the domestic side as the movie dropped more than 50%. Loses were heavy in most major markets: in the U.K. it was down 57%, in Germany, 55% and in Italy, 53%. But despite these steep drops, it was still able to lead the weekend with $55 million.
And Reloaded overtook X-Men 2 for the 2003 International box office lead with a total of $250 million. By next week it should surpass the original's international total of $285 million.
For the first time in 2003, the weekend box office totals were significantly above the same week last year. The total box office for the top ten was up nearly 45% from 2002 year. This helped put May in the record books as the best month in box office history. But, even after May's record-breaking performance, 2003 is still behind 2002's total for the year to date.
Opening in first place, with a record weekend for both Computer Animation and a studio best for Pixar was Finding Nemo. The Albert Brooks fish tale earned $70.3 million at the box office, and if the stellar reviews and past Pixar performances are any indications, this movie could pull in close to $300 million domestically, and a little more than that internationally.
Bruce Almighty came in second, and did so with a smaller drop off than expected. $37.3 million was only a 45% decline, which is very good considering the huge opening weekend take and the post-holiday dip. Along the way Bruce Almighty became the largest grossing comedy of the year after crossing the $100 million mark on Thursday.
Third place went to the second of three wide releases this weekend. The Italian Job grabbed up $19.5 million, on par with predictions. Surprisingly good reviews could give this movie legs. However, with a $60 million production budget, and an advertising budget close to half that it won’t see a profit in the home market.
Continuing to drop faster than expected is The Matrix Reloaded, with $15.7 million, down nearly 58% over last weekend. The movie seems to be suffering from The Empire Strikes Back effect, that is to say it doesn't have the novelty of the first movie, and doesn't have the satisfying conclusion of the third movie. Speaking of Star Wars, The Matrix Reloaded is now just a few hundred thousand above Attack of the Clones' pace, despite having a $24 million lead after opening weekend. It will take a surge just before the release of Matrix Revolutions to push this film above $300 million.
Daddy Day Care was able to stay in the top five one last week with a $5.7 million dollar performance. The movie now has made a little more than $80 million in four weeks, and could have enough gas in the tank to cross $100 million.
Opening with a little weaker box office than predicted, but a spot higher was Wrong Turn. $5.2 million is not a lot of money for an opening weekend, but considering a budget of only $10 - $13 million, it should be enough to pull a profit from the home market. The reviews for Wrong Turn were not as low as one might have expected, getting a 50% score from the run-of-the-mill Internet reviewers. However, of the Cream-of-the-crop reviews, of which only four even bothered to review the movie, none of them gave it a positive review.
Coming in less than $100,000 behind in sixth place was X-Men 2 with $5.1 million. The mutant movie sequel just failed to cross the $200 million dollar mark but should do that by Tuesday. That total is enough to pay off the production budget, but it will take a bit more to make a profit domestically. However, add in its impressive international numbers and X-Men 2 has made Fox very happy.
The second Albert Brooks movie in the charts, The In-Laws, fell to eighth place with $3.7 million. It had one of the best drop-offs of the week, but that wasn’t good enough to save it: $14.5 million after two weeks is still a disappointment.
Down With Love dropped faster than predicted with only $1.6 million. Only $17.2 million after three weeks of wide release is quite a shock considering the talent attached to this film.
Rounding out the top ten is The Lizzie McGuire Movie, which was only able to grab $1.2 million this weekend and fell just shy of $40 million total. Fortunately, not only will it cross that mark before long; it will also have covered its total budget as well.
The weekend after Memorial Day sees three new movies open wide, each with widely difference target audiences and wildly different expectations.
Almost guaranteed to open first is Finding Nemo, the fifth film from Pixar studios. The real question with Finding Nemo is whether it will break records for the studio. It needs more than $62.5 million to better Monsters Inc. opening, which will be difficult - especially considering the post-Memorial Day dip that is historically experienced at the box office. However, Finding Nemo does have a higher theater count (3,374 to 3,237) and unbelievably high reviews going for it. Currently there is only one reviewer on Rotten Tomatoes that is not giving it a positive review. That puts it above both Monsters Inc. and A Bug’s Life, but amazing below both Toy Story 1 and 2, both of which received 100% positive reviews.
Coming in second, and crashing back down to Earth will be Bruce Almighty. The huge first weekend take and a post holiday weekend means this film will drop more than 50%. However, since the film outperformed expectations by such a large margin the first week, a 50% drop will still leave a second weekend box office greater than what the studio were hoping for before it opened.
There will be a close battle for third place between Matrix Reloaded and The Italian Job. The Matrix Reloaded is again tracking well below last week’s performance, which should result in another big drop. However, The Italian Job is only opening in 2,633 theatres, which is a little low. Surprisingly, The Italian Job is currently receiving nearly identical reviews as the Matrix. So look for the two movies to get nearly identical box office takes this week, around $18 million with a slight edge to the newcomer.
Fifth place will also go down to the wire as Daddy Day Care and X-Men 2 fight to stay in the top 5 one more week. Both are shedding theaters, but X-Men 2 is doing it faster. On the other hand, Finding Nemo will surely draw more of Daddy Day Care’s target audience away than from the X-Men. Still, Daddy Day Care has the lead last weekend, and while it will shrink, it should still win this weekend $8 million to $7 million.
Opening in only 1,615 theaters is the horror movie Wrong Turn, which has a plot reminiscent of The Lurking Fear by H.P. Lovecraft. The real surprise with the reviews is not that they’re as poor as they are, but that there are so few of them. As of noon Friday, there were only 6 reviews posted. But the target audience for these films generally doesn’t care about reviews or the lack thereof, so that shouldn’t affect the box office. And with a budget a mere fraction of the other films debuting this week, the studio should still be happy with $6 million and a seventh place finish.
In eighth place will be The In-Laws, which unperformed when in debuted last week and will do the same this week with a little more than $4 million. There are two bright spots for the studio, the movie did have a lower budget than most and it should find a larger audience in the home market.
In ninth place will be Down With Love, which unperformed when in debuted two weeks ago and will do the same this week with a little less than $3 million. Ok, enough of the cut and paste predictions, but the performance of the two previous movies has been very similar. Low expectations, even lower box offices and a quick descent down the charts.
Rounding out the top ten is The Lizzie McGuire Movie, which is shedding theaters faster than its box office pull would suggest it should. Failure to support this film in the long run could cost Disney several million dollars off the final box office figure. Even with the lost theaters it should earn a little more than $2 million and cross the $40 million mark for its total box office. The studio’s share of that figure should cover production and advertising costs.
the-numbers.com/movies/2003/MTRX2.php>Matrix Reloaded became the first movie in history to earn more than $100 million internationally in a single weekend. The movie grabbed up $113.2 million from nearly 9,000 prints in 62 markets, including 49 premieres. Along the way, Matrix Reloaded broke weekend records in more than a dozen markets. What could be more impressive to the studio are the holdovers, low second weekend drops were reported in most markets unlike at the domestic market.
Total international box office for Matrix Reloaded is now over $150 million, and should easily beat the $285 million earned by the original.
trend recently for the winner of the total box office to take the per theater average as well. And this week is no different as Bruce Almighty’s average of $24,615 was head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. In second place was the independent film Respiro with $13,493. Dropping all the way to third place was last week’s champion, Matrix Reloaded at $12,659.
Memorial Day Weekend had more than a few surprises this year as records were broken, but not by the movie most people expected to break them. Overall, the box office was in a dead heat with last year's with only a 1% increase. But it was an increase, which is better news than most weeks this year.
Setting records for largest Memorial Day Weekend and largest non-sequel comedy among others was Bruce Almighty. With a box office of $85.7 million over four days it destroyed the competition and nearly doubled most predictions. Even with reviews that are
just average, this movie should have more than enough legs to make a profit domestically.
In second with a huge drop was Matrix Reloaded. My prediction on Friday of $55 million was one of the lowest, and it still wasn’t low enough. $45.6 million over four days was a 50% drop, and its three-day total was nearly 60% lower. After the first weekend, Matrix Reloaded had a $24 million lead on Attack of the Clones, now that lead has been cut to $9 million. For a film that just last week, people were predicting $400 million, Matrix Reloaded might struggle to cross $300 million. This is one of the sharpest and most unexpected drops in recent memory. Still, Matrix Reloaded did top the original’s box office in only 9 days, and became the year’s biggest hit the next day. So there are some bright spots.
Still topping expectations was Daddy Day Care. $18.1 million over four days was barely a noticeable drop from last week. But with a hefty $90 million production and advertising budget, Daddy Day Care will still have to wait till the home market to make a profit.
Recovering nicely from early drops was X-Men 2, sitting in fourth place. A better than average drop-off allowed the mutant movie to edge closer to the $200 million mark, a milestone it should cross next weekend. Combined with the overseas numbers, X-Men 2 has already made the studio a profit.
Earning less than most analysts predicted was the remake The In-Laws. $9.2 million was only good enough for fifth place and the reviews were on the weak side and competition is just too great for this movie to have the legs needed to make the studio happy. This is the second disappointing film for Michael Douglas in as many months, and Albert Brooks has another movie being released next week. But it’s almost a guarantee that Finding Nemo will be a success.
ult these days to find a movie that is worth spending your time and hard earned dollars on, and twice as difficult when both seem to be consistently evaporating. As a young married adult with two children and as the sole provider in my family, finding an in-law that is free to babysit on any given weekend, on a day I am not working on my lawn, house or an article for this site, during a pay week that I can actually squeeze a dollar or two from my budget... ALL so that I can grab a bucket of popcorn and catch a flick with the wife, is tantamount to every planet in our solar system coming into alignment - and it occurs just as frequently. Loathed is the idea of going to a movie, with all the time and effort I put into it, not knowing for sure if I will enjoy my excursion despite the feature, or thanks in part because of it. SO what do I do? WHAT do I do?
I USED to look to the movie critics for some guidance... once upon a time, long, long, ago, with a budget that is now far, far, away... and then I got broke... and then I got cheap... and then I got real selective... and then I came to the realization that many of these movie critics are as qualified to review a movie as Richard Simmons is qualified to review a gentleman’s club. Well OK, perhaps some movie critics are more qualified to review films, but that doesn’t mean I should buy into what they are trying to sell me and as The Numbers will indicate, these sentiments aren’t uniquely my own. When you get right to it, we probably shouldn’t put much stock into what most movie critics have to say, about ANY movie! But please, let me explain where I’m coming from with this...
The World Is Coming To An End!
Alright, not to frighten anyone out there because believe you me, no one was more shocked than I... but last Sunday, me and the wife pulled off the ever elusive, self made, double feature: we saw X2 and Matrix Reloaded in the same afternoon. No, the world isn’t coming to an end (well not that I know of anyway), and the last I checked, all of the planets won’t be coming into alignment until approximately 2468... AND I just recently visited with my mother in-law and her house was a warm 72 Degrees F, so no, Hell did not freeze over either... but we did it all the same, we saw two movies in a single afternoon and WE LOVED IT! As a matter of fact, we couldn’t decide on which movie we enjoyed more. And if two great flicks weren’t enough, I decided to give myself a reprieve for the afternoon and went off my diet... "Man oh man I love the smell of movie theaters in the morning. It smells like... Jiffy Pop!" Best of all, I spent little more than 4 hours with my wife, in close quarters, WITHOUT getting into an argument. And why not. After all we had no reason to even talk during this time... ah yes, what a splendid afternoon it was. BUT it almost never came to be... thanks in part to so called professional critics.
The Pros and Their Scores
I am reprinting segments from MSN’s critic collection on the two movies I just saw last Sunday. I would have to say that MSN has compiled some of the most mainstream and most read movie critics in the US. They include the likes of Roger Ebert, formally of Siskel and Ebert, and Elvis Mitchel of the NY Times. I think there is some interesting data here in the form of 2 movies with 2 different scores.
X2 (List and Quotes Collected by MSN Entertainment)
Source
Quote from the review
Grade
Chicago Tribune Michael Wilmington
"Gifted director Bryan Singer ('The Usual Suspects') seems to be having fun with the material instead of being overwhelmed with special effects." Full Review
B
Los Angeles Times Kenneth Turan
"Brisk and involving with a streamlined forward propulsion, it's the kind of superhero movie we want if we have to have superhero movies at all." Full Review
A-
MSNBC David Germain
"The first film intellectualized and moralized more about human bigotry, whereas 'X2' is the cinematic equivalent of a comic, thin on the sociological conflict, heavy on gunplay and hand-to-hand combat." Full Review
B
New York Times A.O. Scott
"'X2'... honors both the allegorical grandiosity of [its] source and the moods and anxieties of the superpower-endowed individuals who inhabit its universe." Full Review
B
Village Voice J. Hoberman
"The movie is funny, reasonably crazy, and unpretentiously faithful to its source." Full Review
B
Overall Grade: B
Matrix: Reloaded (List and Quotes Collected by MSN Entertainment)
Source
Quote from the review
Grade
Chicago Sun-Times Roger Ebert
"It is an immensely skillful sci-fi adventure, combining the usual elements: heroes and villains, special effects and stunts, chases and explosions, romance and oratory." Full Review
A-
Chicago Tribune Mark Caro
"Although the technical aspects don't disappoint, the human ones do. Action scenes can't be heart-stopping if the story hasn't gotten your ticker going to begin with." Full Review
C-
Los Angeles Times Kenneth Turan
"If a concept is to sustain itself over a multipart story, it must make an emotional connection, and this 'Reloaded,' especially with stars cast for their lack of affect and affinity for blankness, cannot do that." Full Review
C
MSNBC Kirk Honeycutt
"The Wachowskis may have… started to believe in their own semimythological status, for the brothers seem to be taking themselves way too seriously." Full Review
C-
New York Times Elvis Mitchell
"[The Wachowski brothers] relentless love of movies, junk-food mythology and thoughtful reimagining of a future endangered by mass consumption and proliferation of pleasure to the point of soullessness makes for a heady and unusual mix." Full Review
B-
Slate David Edelstein
"'The Matrix Reloaded' is as messy and flat-footed as its predecessor is nimble and shapely. It's an ugly, bloated, repetitive movie that builds to a punch line that should have come an hour earlier (at least)." Full Review
D
Overall Grade: C+
Now color me objective, but I am not even quite sure how to read ratings like this. I mean, in high school, a B was great, and I was appreciative of the grade when ever my gym teacher gave it…that coupled with my long term love affair with Marvel Comics, going to see Xmen 2: Xmen United was a no-brainer. As far as the C+ that The Matrix sequel received, well…for me…in high school a C meant that I didn’t get a D which was all to close to an F or that horrible new-fangled E which was like the F but with the possibility of Summer school present. All things being equal though, I assumed that here, a C+ might not be worth my time. Worse yet, I sincerely considered THESE ratings in particular, before replacing pork chops with pasta on my grocery list just so I could fund last Sundays movie excursion. Thankfully, The Matrix was such a great experience the first time around that I decided to go with my gut instinct and saw Reloaded anyway. I again traded down on a grocery item…the pasta for soup, and went for the double header. No disappointments here…and based on the scores you Numbers readers gave both these movies…you all whole heartedly agreed!
The Numbers Raters-Get It Right
Below are the ratings readers of the The Numbers gave to both X2: X-Men United and The Matrix: Reloaded. Here is a break down of how you all rated the two flicks as of 5/19/2003.
With an average of 8.25 for both movies, I think the fans of this site rated X2 and The Matrix with dead on accuracy. And why shouldn’t I agree more with these numbers as a whole, if not more so? Chances are, we all could identify with each other a lot more than we could with an Ebert or a Robert. After all, unlike many movie critics, we don’t get paid to see films weekly, and when we do head out to the theater, were not over exposed and we don’t suffer from the Ralph Cirella Syndrome.
The Ralph Cirella Syndrome
As sad as it may sound, I have often thought long and hard about people who’s job it is to go out on a regular basis and rate anything, let alone movies. And not to paint all film critics with a single broad stroke, but other than a knack for the written word, many of these critics are void of anything that uniquely qualifies them for the columns they write. Quite a few get their start as journalist who early in their career, were tapped to write movie critiques for some obscure local paper. But, not to nay say anyone’s skill or career, because I do appreciate the difficulties involved with a job like that. Imagine the tedious effort involved with constantly having to see movies on a daily basis! And no, not every movie is an X2 or a Matrix: Reloaded. Imagine having to see 4 to 5 films a week from huge block busters to small independent films and after being exposed to them all, having to write an article or column on what you thought about each flick. Is it any wonder that some of their critiques can end up so far off base?!!?
To put it into context that we can all relate to, imagine taking part as a judge in a beauty contest, A Miss America Pageant. Errr... and for you ladies that are reading, whatever the male equivalent would be. You are inundated with beautiful people strutting their stuff for you in hopes of receiving your approval in the form of a good score. After a while, you're bound to show your favoritism for people who have characteristics you are partial to. Perhaps you favor red heads over brunettes, or guys with 4 packs as opposed to guys with a 6 pack (we're talking abs here). After a while, you may even become de-sensitized to all but the absurdly obvious or the uniquely and personally attractive.
And this is the life of a movie critic.
I like to call this, the Ralph Cirella Syndrome. And for those of you who live in a cave and don’t listen to morning radio, Ralph Cirella is a whiny, mousy, awkward looking member of the Howard Stern show. He is often called upon by Howard to act as a judge over beauty contests and female fan evaluations. On any other day of the week, these woman would sooner insert their stiletto heel into his forehead than allow themselves to be evaluated by the likes of him. But because his ego is now swollen from the undeserving attention showered on him from beautiful Howard Stern groupies looking for self-validation, he is able to offer harsh and blunt critiques that are as funny as the situation is ironic.
My Humble Review Without The Flowery Words
Pick a movie, any movie and you’ll see some cheesy quote from some obnoxiously obscure paper similar to:
"A knock down, drag out, take no prisoners movie that brings you to the edge, and then drops you off a 1000 foot cliff!"
"A life altering experience that will forever linger in the mind like a childhood sweetheart!"
"A gut wrenching, knee slapping, split your sides comedy that doesn’t stop until your in tears!"
"Best Movie of the year and it’s only January!"
"The movie that everyone should see if only to become more enlightened!"
I think these people simply made a wheel of movie quotes out of an old Twister spinner and then gave it a flick come time for quote stamping a movie commercial. And it’s not like the films that sport such audacious banners are obvious Schindler's List masterpieces. I mean c’mon, were talking Batman flicks and Jim Carrey films. Fun, yes... enjoyable, certainly... but "Awe inspiring, mind bending" anything? Please, how about a regular movie review from a regular guy. Something like this for example:
Movie Critic: George W. Horta III
Brief Bio
George Horta is a hard working, young family man who doesn’t believe in make up for men, refuses to use soaps and personal hygiene products that smell like flowers and that come in colored packaging other than white, often takes the daily news paper with him into the toilet, and who wishes porn was a socially acceptable topic for dinner conversation. And though he fancies himself a decent and burgeoning writer didn’t graduate from The Shakespearean School of Movie Reviews
X2: X-men United
A Good story line and fantastic visual effects kept me interested the whole way through, and all of the female actors were shapely and buxom. Women in leather and spandex make me smile, half naked blue super models make me smile, and so does senseless violence involving totally lopsided odds (Like the scene where two military commandoes shot at Colossus with their MP-5’s). And by the way ladies, Hugh Jackman and Daniel Cudmore (AKA Colossus), run around in this film topless for what seems like half the movie. I really think it was worth paying matinee prices for the film and only a nit picking, anal retentive, Marvel geek would find fault with this movie. I give it a Go see it if you're not broke rating.
Matrix 2: Reloaded
Carrie-Anne Moss gets half naked in this film, and the bumping and grinding scene in Zion made me sweat a little. They squeezed Monica Bellucci into a skintight dress that looks so good, you may want to pull a Pee Wee Herman. Fight scenes were violent and reminiscent of the Saturday Afternoon Kung Fu Theater I watched as a child. The huge brawl in the first half of the movie does look digital at times, but overall, the hand to hand choreography was so great, you leave the movie wanting to kick somebody’s ass. Did I mention Carrie-Anne Moss gets half naked in this film and that Monica Bellucci has a dress that was painted on? And ladies, Keanu’s ass has a few seconds of screen time as well. This movie made me smile and at times it made me horny. I give it a Stretch the budget a bit if you have to and see it in the theater rating.
Bad Reviews Don’t Mean Bad Numbers
A great review from a big name movie critic tends to encourage people to see a film, hence the flowery Twister spinner of review quotes. On the other hand, I don’t ever think I heard the words "Oh... (Blank) gave it a bad review. Well I’m definitely never going to see that movie." This list of 5 flicks as compiled by Rottentomatoes.com is proof positive of that fact. These 5 films received cohesive thumbs down from a multitude of reviewers and these films also averaged over $100 million in box office sales. (List reported by C.S. Strobridge)
Top Five Box Office Hits that were critically drubbed of 2003. (In no real order.)
Very rarely, one will find a movie critic that reviews movies with an eye like our own. I personally find that Roger Ebert often shares my taste in films (coincidentally, he obviously shares my weakness for junk food). But if it isn’t apparent by now, the most powerful and accurate reviews come from people like you and me. People who don’t go to the movies for a living. And even then, you should keep in mind that tastes and preferences vary from individual to individual. I don’t know what used to upset me more... catching a movie on Pay-Per-View that I would have loved to have seen in the theater, if not for the vile review a pro gave it, or wasting my money on a flick that some other pro gave a thumbs up too, because they were punch drunk with hyper-movie exposure. Films are made, box office numbers are collected, and in the end, all that really matters is the experience and enjoyment everyone takes from the movie they just saw. Films will find their own fan fare, and even flicks that aren’t popular in the theaters or popular with the masses, can have an opportunity to show in the privacy of our own homes. After all, just because it wasn’t worth $9 dollars in the theater, doesn’t mean it isn’t worth a gander for $3.50 a three day DVD rental, from the comfort of your own couch... and thank goodness for small miracles or I may never have seen the wonder that is Showgirls!
Memorial Day Weekend is typically the busiest weekend of the year, and this year it is shaping up to be the same with two movies battling for top spot. However, last years records are probably safe.
In first place will be Matrix Reloaded, but it might not break Attack of the Clones’ Memorial Day Weekend record. Matrix Reloaded started out 33% above Attack of the Clones, but had a larger drop on Friday, smaller increase Saturday, etc. In fact, only once in the first week did the Matrix Reloaded’s day to day change beat Attack of the Clones’ performance, and by Wednesday it fell behind in daily box office. Combined with the increased competition from new releases this year compared to last and I predict Matrix Reloaded will drop just shy of 40% and make $55 million.
Bruce Almighty is the first of the new openers this weekend and it could open with personal bests for all three stars. Granted for Jennifer Aniston that’s not a hard feat as her previous best was $9.7 with The Object of My Affection. Reviews for Bruce Almighty are not great, but are on par with Me, Myself and Irene, but far behind Liar, Liar. However, there is enough positive buzz to overcome those reviews, for at least one weekend. Look for a $50 million opening weekend, but with an uncertain longevity.
After a smaller than expected second week drop Daddy Day Care was able to add theatres pushing its theatre count to nearly 3500. With the long weekend, expect an even smaller drop-off this time. It’s tracking just 10% behind last week’s number so a box office of $17 million is a pretty save bet.
The second of the new releases is The In-Laws, a remake of the 1979 movie of the same name. This time around it’s stars Michael Douglas and Albert Brooks. Neither star has had a lot of box office success lately; and this movie will neither be a box office smash, nor will it be a failure. Reviews are currently exactly the same as Bruce Almighty, but The In-Laws has an older target audience so look for a $12 million opening and better legs. On a side note, next week another Albert Brooks' movie opens wide, the computer animated fish tale Finding Nemo.
Dropping to fifth place will be X-Men 2. Earlier in the week, the mutant movie was tracking more than 50% below the previous week’s. But a late week recovery plus the long weekend it could help it avoid dropping below $10 million, but that’s not a sure thing.
the-numbers.com/movies/2003/MTRX2.php>The Matrix Reloaded was number one in its first weekend despite opening in only 13 markets. The sequel earned roughly $31 million on just 2,877 screens, breaking several records along the way. In second place was X-Men 2 with $18.5 million in its third week. It’s total is now over $150 million internationally, more than the original’s total international run and currently the best of 2003. In third was the previous number one international movie of 2003, Johnny English. The spy spoof made $3.3 million to past the $100 million mark in its sixth week of international release.
the-numbers.com/movies/2003/MTRX2.php>Matrix Reloaded’s massive opening not only crushed the competition at the box office, its $25,471 per theatre average was more than doubled its nearest competitor on the Per Theater Average Charts. The next best movie was by the Oscar nominated documentary, Winged Migration, which was the only other movie to beat $10,000 per theatre this week.
As expected, Matrix Reloaded’s opening was huge, but not big enough to keep up with last year when Attack of the Clones opened. After this weekend, 2003 will have fallen another $8 million behind last year’s pace.
While it is true that Matrix Reloaded broke records this weekend, it didn’t break as many as some are saying. This confusion is due to Wednesday’s 10 p.m. previews. Estimates for the Matrix Reloaded preview range from $5 to $9.3 million dollars. Regardless of which figure is more accurate; this did break a record for largest single showing preview. However, this figure was added to Thursday’s box office inflating it past Spider-Man for the largest opening day. Another record that might not be a record was the largest four-day total. Taking Thursday though Sunday we get a total that is on par with Spider-Man’s total of $126 million, depending on how much the Wednesday preview really brought in. Another record broken is largest opening for an R rated movie.
Comparing these figures to the first movie is difficult. The first movie opened slowly as none of the stars had real drawing power. Keanu Reeves was in a slump since Speed, Laurence Fishburne previous best was 14 years earlier, and The Matrix was Carrie Anne Moss’s first major movie. Matrix Reloaded did better on its opening day than the first did on its opening weekend. It made more than 70% of its total box office in just four days. The $92.8 million opening weekend and $134.3 million total are great news, but the lower than expected reviews will probably mean Spider-Man’s total box office of $400 million will not be beat.
In second place, with a surprisingly low drop-off was Daddy Day Care, taking $18.9 million. The Eddie Murphy family friendly movie has now earned $50 million in two weeks, and could be on it’s way to $100 million total.
Dropping 57% on its way from first to third was X-Men 2. The direct competition from Matrix Reloaded hurt it at the box office, but the $17.3 million was more than enough to surpass the first’s total box office. It goes without saying there’s another sequel in the works.
As predicted, Down With Love finished fourth, however, it did significantly worse at the box office than predicted. The 60’s retro comedy earned $7.0 million, less than half of some predictions. Its reviews were quite good compared to most films released this year, but were still shy of the 60% needed for an overall positive rating.
After a larger than expected second week drop-off, The Lizzie McGuire Movie recovered nicely to earn $4.8 million to stay in the top 5 for the third week in a row. For a movie that cost an estimated $25 million to make, and advertise, its box office total of over $32 million should make the studio very happy.
Hanging in the top ten for another week were A Mighty Wind and Bend it Like Beckham. The Folk music mockumentary’s second week in the top ten helped it’s total move past $12 million. Bend it Like Beckham has now been in the top ten for three weeks and its total is now over $15 million.
rs are in for The Matrix Reloaded, and Warner Bros.' coffers have swelled another $31.5 million, taking its two day total to $74 million, or thereabouts.
That performance is somewhat ahead of our expectations, which might be because the gross on Wednesday night was lower than originally rumored - Warners are saying it was around $5 million.
With that in mind, our new weekend projection is for a little over $90 million, and probably second place on the biggest weekends list.
r CEO Dick Parsons had the satisfaction of reporting The Matrix Reloaded's opening day's numbers at his company's annual meeting this morning.
And what numbers they are: a new opening-day record of $42,475,000 from 3,603 theaters.
That's about $3 million more than Spider-Man made on its opening day last year (see the list of biggest single days), but about a million down from Spider-Man's Saturday performance (its second day in release).
These numbers have to be taken with a pinch of salt, because they include approximately $10 million in late night shows from Wednesday - so the actual daily total was likely around $32 million.
Bearing that in mind, our projection for the weekend is as follows:
Day
Daily Gross
Cumulative Gross
Thursday
$42,500,000
$42,500,000
Friday
$25,000,000
$67,500,000
Saturday
$32,000,000
$97,500,000
Sunday
$25,000,000
$122,500,000
A Friday-Sunday weekend of around $82 million is therefore our projection right now.
We'll share more
The Matrix Reloaded opens today, and expectations are huge, both critically and at the box office.
It is safe to say The Matrix Reloaded will win the weekend, the real question is by how much? If it doesn’t make more today (Thursday) than the first made during its opening weekend (roughly 28 million) it will be seen as a disappointment. And if it doesn’t break $100 million by Saturday or Sunday at the latest, 2003 will fall further behind 2002 as far as the box office goes. There are a couple of warning signs which suggest Matrix Reloaded won’t be able to handle the pressure. Critically the movie is getting mostly great reviews, but its 78% positive is nearly a full 10 percentage points below the original. Compare that to X-Men 2 which beat the original’s reviews by 7 percentage points. Also, the extreme hype has the potential to cause backlash, and there is some evidence that this is happening. These signs aside, look for Matrix Reloaded to help this weekend be at least on pace with last year.
Dropping to second place is X-Men 2, which currently sits just $2 million behind the original’s total box office. Weekday tracking shows an even larger drop-off is in store for this weekend. However, that could be mitigated by Matrix overflow. X-Men 2 should make roughly $20 million this weekend.
Weekday tracking for Daddy Day Care suggests that a 50% second week drop off could be in the cards. Best case scenario still sees it lose more than 40%, which is not good for a family movie.
Coming in fourth will be the second new opener this week, Down With Love. Opening in only 2,200 theaters and with only moderately good reviews it should grab a respectable $6000 per theater for a total of $13 million. Enough to make the studio happy, but not enough to start a new trend.
In fifth place should be The Lizzie McGuire Movie, with an estimated $4 million. The studios share of the box office is already enough to pay for the production costs, and the P & A budget should be covered in a few more weeks.
k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.
L’Auberge Espagnole
Current Content: No change from when I first reviewed it. A website is still marked coming soon, but since the movie opens this Friday, they don’t have a whole lot of time.
Battle of Shaker Heights
Current Content: Like all Miramax movie sites, this one has just the synopsis and cast and crew (no bios) and a trailer marked coming soon.
Casa de los Babys
Current Content: This site uses the same format as other films from IFC. The content is also similar with a synopsis, trailers, cast bios, and some behind the scene information.
Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle
Current Content: The first of the animated adventures is up. More episodes will be shown as the release date comes closer.
Down with Love
Current Content: Three clips from the movie are available. They’re fun clips that fit well into the cheesy 60s feel of the rest of the site.
Dumb and Dumberer
Current Content: There’s a slashdot parody called slashdumb.
Freddy vs. Jason
Current Content: A trailer and a quiz have been added to the site.
The Matrix Reloaded
Current Content: This is the only site I know that comes with schematics to help you navigate, and you need them. There are literally dozens of buttons, and none of them are marked. However, when you move your mouse over them, the Navigation Display does tell you what it does. Normally this focus on style at the detriment of ease of use would irritate me to no end. However in this case, once I got used to the interface it added to the overall atmosphere. As for the actual content, there’s a lot. 10 different trailers / TV spots, dozens of images, cast and crew bios, posters, wallpapers, etc. Then there are the more unusual aspects, like the 360 degree Quicktime VRs. When you add in all the content from the first movie and other Matrix sources (comic books, anime, video games, etc.) you could surf this site for days. And it’s the combination of style and content that lets this site win the immutable Weekly Website Award.
Pokemon Heroes
Current Content: Like most Miramax films, this site lacks any real content. It does at least look different, but there’s only a trailer and synopsis to keep the surfer interested.
The Punisher
Current Content: None, just a placeholder site. But it does say when the site will launch, June 20th.
Rugrats for Wild
Current Content: Three more Rugrat adults are added to the Spike search game, as are some e-collectibles. However, you have to log into Nick.com to get them.
The Sea
Current Content: This site just has the bare bones, trailer, synopsis and cast and crew (no bios.)
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
