The Numbers - Box Office Data, Movie Stars, Idle Speculation
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Monday, November 23, 2009

News Stories About Holes

Kids Battle Mutants for Box Office Crown

2003-05-09

movie opens wide, Daddy Day Care, but it does open in almost 3400 theatres. Will that be enough to unseat X-Men as box office champ? In a word, no.

X-Men 2 earned so much on its opening weekend that a 50% drop is almost assumed. Before X-Men 2, more than half the movies with previous top ten opening weekends suffered a 50% drop on their second weekend. Weekday tracking, original movie’s performance, fanboy effect all suggest this trend will continue. Still, even a 60% drop would be enough to win this weekend.

Eddie Murphy’s career has been hit and miss recently, misses like I Spy and Pluto Nash are offset by hits like Dr. Doolittle and The Nutty Professor. But where does Daddy Day Care fit in? Reviews, which are poor, suggest a box office similar to Showtime. But the target audience suggests closer to Dr. Doolittle. Split the difference for a $20 million box office.

The rest of the top five will be made up last weeks 2 through 4, in the same order. The Lizzie McGuire Movie will probably have the lowers drop off in the top five, and should finish comfortably in third place with $10 million. That would make its total box office more than its total budget in less than 2 weeks. We will be seeing a lot more of Hilary Duff after this.

Identity will drop to fourth place, with a little more than $6 million. Identity’s total box office could reach $40 million by this weekend on its way to a $55 million total box office. Not bad for a movie that cost about half that to make.

Anger Management is really shedding theatres, while Holes is still picking some up. So we could see Holes overtake it to stay in top five for one more week. Either way, the fifth place finished should grab an additional $5 million.

Two additional notes for this weekend: A Mighty Wind is expanding into 765 theatres and should end up in the top ten. Also, The In-Laws is having a preview in 800 theatres on Saturday; it opens wide on May 23rd.

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X-Men Wins Easily, But Lizzie has Better Profit Margin

2003-05-05

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The first weekend of summer started a little weaker than last year, but it is still very strong. Of course, it wasn’t long ago when summer didn’t start till Memorial Day.

X-Men 2 easily won with $85.6 million, on the high end of the estimates. Better reviews, and a better internal multiplier than the first movie, suggest X-Men 2 should have better legs. However, the sequel will have stronger competition when The Matrix Reloaded opens in just 10 days. Even with this increased competition, $250 million should be an easily obtainable goal.

Opening in second place was The Lizzie McGuire Movie at $17.3 million, $2 million more than it cost to make. It will still take quite a bit more at the box office till the studios share pays for production and advertising, but it’s well on its way to profitability. The opening for Lizzie McGuire is better than fellow Tween movies Agent Cody Banks, What a Girl Wants and Holes. Factoring in the lower production budget and advertising budgets than any of those, Buena Vista should be very happy. Poor reviews could mean weak legs, but it will take a week or two to determine that.

In third was Identity with $9.4 million. While a drop of 41.9% would normally be considered quite bad, the genre mixed with the extreme competition makes this a better than expected result. Fourth place went to Anger Management which dropped 44% to $8.4 million. Holes came in fifth with just shy of $7 million and now has a total of over $45 million in just three weeks.

On an interesting note, Bend It Like Beckham made it’s first appearance in the top ten in its eighth week of release. The British film made $1.5 million in just 484 theatres to bring its total past the $10 million mark. Not bad for a movie that cost about half that to make.

Note: CinemaScores went to a subscription service, so I an no longer be able to use it in my analysis. Sorry for the inconvenience and I am looking for a replacement.

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X Marks the Spot

2003-05-02

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This week marks the official start of the Summer Box Office season. And while there are two wide releases, it seems only one is talked about by the press.

X-Men 2 is the first big release of the summer, and will be used to judge all other blockbusters to come. Fox was able to get X-Men 2 the largest release domestically, (opening in 3,741 theaters, 59 more than the previous record) and worldwide, (opening in 93 markets in just 3 days.) And with excellent reviews this movie should open huge, and it must with a production budget of $125 million and Print & Advertising budget estimated at $50 million. If X-Men doesn’t place in the top 5 biggest weekend (about $75 million) it will be seen as a disappointment. Second place is a real possibility ($90+ million), but beating Spider-Man is doubtful at best.

The Lizzie McGuire Movie is the second wide release in 2,825 theatres, a little more than initial predictions. With a production budget smaller than X-Men 2’s Print budget alone, The Lizzie McGuire movie isn’t in the same class. However, with the popularity of its star, Hilary Duff, it could have a more profitable box office on its opening weekend. Reviews are weak, but on par with other movies with such a narrow target audience. Look for The Lizzie McGuire movie to match its production budget ($15 million) opening weekend, and have a profitable run.

Last week's 1-2-3 will finish this week 3-4-5, probably in the same order, all with $7 million - $9 million box offices. Anger Management could surpass Identity depending on which movie the X-Men overflow decides to see instead. After this weekend, only its third in release, Holes’ box office will be higher than its total budget. Something that is rarely seen these days.

Submitted by: C.S.Strowbridge

RankMovieTheatersChangeWeeks in
Release
Distributor
1X2: X-Men United3,741New1Fox
2Anger Management3,471-1854Sony
3Lizzie McGuire Movie, The2,825New1Buena Vista
4Identity2,733n/c2Sony
5Holes2,402+533Buena Vista
6Malibu's Most Wanted2,340-1633Warner Bros.
7Real Cancun, The2,261n/c2New Line
8Bulletproof Monk1,894-1,0613MGM
9Confidence1,871+1,8712Lions Gate
10What a Girl Wants1,720-8205Warner Bros.

41Dancer Upstairs, The13New1Fox Searchlight
42Owning Mahowny9New1Sony Classics
44New Suit7New1Trillion
45Blue Car6New1Miramax
53Stone Reader1New1Jets Films
55Spellbound1New1ThinkFilm


Estimated Theater Counts for Next Week's Openers

MovieTheatersDistributor
Daddy Day Care3,200Sony
Shape of Things, The40Focus Features
Only the Strong Survive10Miramax
Man on the Train, The5Paramount Classics

See the full theater

Identity Wins Last Week in Spring

2003-04-28

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The last week in Spring is usually a time when studios dump movies before the summer season officially starts, and it’s usually the slowest pre-summer weekend of the year. This year was no exception. It was better than the same weekend last year, but that could be the result of twice as many movies opening this year.

Picked by most to finish second, or even third, Identity managed to grab first spot with an impressive $16.2 million. Also impressive was its reviews at 64%, but its CinemaScores was just average at B. That, the genre, and X-Men 2 opening next week suggests Identity won’t have great legs at the box office, but with a budget of only $28 million, it won’t matter.

In second was Anger Management, which dropped another 40% to $15 million and crossed the $100 million mark. Even with much stronger legs than predicted, this film is still well behind Big Daddy for Adam Sandler’s largest box office, despite having a larger opening weekend.

Third with the smallest week to week drop in the top ten was Holes. Its more than $12.5 million represents only a 23% drop, and after two weeks its total box office is just a few million shy of its production and P&A budgets combined. After figuring in the theatre’s share of the box office, Holes should finish its domestic run just shy of profitability. But at this point, even a disappointing international box office will push this film into the black.

Malibu’s Most Wanted dropped a spot to fourth, but its box office dropped little less than 42% to $7.3 million. This was a little better than most expects predicted. With a production budget of only $15 million, and a total box office of nearly $25 million, look for more films like this to follow.

Opening in fifth place was Confidence at only $4.6 million, in line with most predictions. Excellent reviews couldn’t overcome the small advertising push. Word of mouth might help this movie receive a larger audience for the home market, but that’s a best case scenario at this point.

To say It Runs in the Family opened wide would be a bit of a stretch. At only 1200 theatres, it wasn’t in the top ten for theatre count, but it did finish 9th at the box office. Still its $2.8 million box office is a disappointment, but probably better than its bad reviews and weak CinemaScores would suggest.

It tenth place, proving that the movie going public does have taste was The Real Cancun. This movie bombed, earning $2.1 million in more than 2200 theatres. That’s a per theatre average of less than $1000 per theatre, second worse in the top twenty. Bad reviews are one thing, but the real story here is the CinemaScores. Their target audience (males under 21) gave the movie a C-, with movie goers over 35 gave it an F. Hopefully this will give the other studios contemplating Reality TV Movies something to think about.

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A Hard Time Identifying This Week's Winner

2003-04-25

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The last weekend before the unofficial start of the summer season sees four movies opening wide, or at least sort of wide-ish.

Identity, which has been described as a mixture of Agatha Christie’s Ten Little Indians and The Usual Suspects, is opening the widest at over 2,700 theaters. This comes as a bit of a surprise as early estimates put the theatre count at only 2,300. And the push for more theaters seems to be justified by the good reviews. So far Identity has been able to maintain the 60% needed for an overall fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes. This could give it the edge in this week's race and allow it to open in first place.

The second widest opening is for The Real Cancun, with 2,261 theatres. The reviews are surprisingly good, but that doesn't mean they are actually good. 32% positive is still really bad, but it is much better than expected. However, with a small theater count and a advertising push that was sub-par outside MTV, don’t expect The Real Cancun to do that much business. Top five this week, out of the top ten two weeks later, and three months after that the DVD release will advertise, "Includes all the stuff too hot for the theatre."

Confidence is the next on the list of largest openings this week at less than 1,900 theatres. Originally scheduled to open in December for an Oscar bid, the movie was pushed all the way back until now. This is usually a bad sign, but the reviews have been excellent> Its nearly 80% Rotten Tomatoes score is head and shoulders above the rest of the wide releases. Without the theaters, it won't compete for first place, but a place in the top five and some strong legs could be in store.

The last movie to open wide, if you call it wide, is It Runs in the Family. It opens in only 1,207 theaters, which is two less than Chicago in its 18th week. This movie has been bounced around a few times, and unlike Confidence, the reviews confirm this is a bad sign. Its 28% is even lower than The Real Cancun, although it did receive significantly better reviews from the Cream of the Crop reviewers. Still, it might have trouble making the top ten.

Two notable holdovers, Anger Management and Holes, will battle Identity for first place. For Anger Management, expect another drop of 40% or more at the box office, on its way to a $100 million total this weekend. A smaller than expected drop will mean a third straight first place finish, a greater than expected drop could leave it in third place. Holes has held up surprisingly well mid-week, especially for a movie aimed at kids. Usually kids movies suffer mid-week then bounce back for a very low week-to-week drop. The strong mid-week performance could lead to Holes maintaining most of its first week box-office and stealing first place.

Submitted by: C.S.Strowbridge
RankMovieTheatersChangeWeeks in
Release
Distributor
1Anger Management3,656+863Sony
2Bulletproof Monk2,955n/c2MGM
3Identity2,733New1Sony
4What a Girl Wants2,540-3904Warner Bros.
5Malibu's Most Wanted2,503n/c2Warner Bros.
6Holes2,349+182Buena Vista
7Real Cancun, The2,261New1New Line
8Phone Booth2,113-3354Fox Searchlight
9Bringing Down the House1,668-6168Buena Vista
10Agent Cody Banks1,422-587MGM

14It Runs in the Family1,207New1MGM
48City of Ghosts6New1MGM
49People I Know5New1Miramax
52House of Fools3New1Paramount Classics
54Mr. and Mrs. Iyer2New1Tips Films
55Manic1New1IFC Films
56Cremaster 31New1Palm
58Marooned in Iraq1New1Wellspring
59Decade Under the Influence, A1New1IFC Films


Estimated Theater Counts for Next Week's Openers

MovieTheatersDistributor
X2: X-Men United3,500Fox
Lizzie McGuire Movie, The2,700Buena Vista
Dancer Upstairs, The12Fox Searchlight
New Suit8Trillion Entertainment
Blue Car5Miramax
Spellbound1ThinkFilm

See the full theater count c

Anger Management Wins a Soft Easter

2003-04-21

having Friday off, this Easter Weekend was not as strong as the same weekend last year, which was not even a long weekend. And it was about a quarter less than last Easter weekend.

Anger Management was able to hang on to first place but even with the long weekend it dropped more than 40%. Still, it looks like it will be able to match Mr. Deeds’ $126 million, or at least come close. But with a production and advertising budget estimated to be over $100 million, that might not be enough.

In second place was the kids movie Holes. Originally planned for a January release, it was moved to Easter weekend, and that strategy seems to have paid off. Its $16.3 million opening weekend is just a few million shy of its production budget. And the good news continues Holes not only had great reviews, but also great CinemaScores, something that hasn’t happened in a while. Look for this movie to have legs, and it might launch the careers of some of the mostly unknown actors who played the kids of D-Tent.

Malibu’s Most Wanted did a little better than expected with $12.6 million, good enough for 3rd place. Reviews were poor, but better than expected and CinemaScores were average, also better than expected. With the lowest costs in the top five, Warner Bros. should be happy and this could result in a sequel, which will not make many critics happy.

Doing much weaker than originally forecasted, and weaker than the lower revised prediction was Bulletproof Monk. After getting horrible reviews, it did receive average CinemaScores. But the $8.7 million opening weekend after getting $3 million Wednesday and Thursday is nothing short of disaster.

Rounding out the top five was Phone Booth with just under $6 million. Phone Booth has already paid for its production budget, but is not enough to solidify Colin Farrell’s star status.

The only other movies to open in more than a few select cities were not able to maintain their early momentum. After opening in fifth place, Chasing Papi dropped all the way to eleventh. A Mighty Wind finished 13th after opening in the top ten. However, both were just a few hundred thousand away from the 9th place. In fact, there was less than $1 million between 8th and 15th.

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Anger Management set to Win Weekend Again

2003-04-18

set to open today, after three opened on Wednesday, but it looks like none of them will give Anger Management much competition for first place. Originally, I predicted Bulletproof Monk would finish second, but that may no longer be the case. Wednesday’s take was only $1.4 million, which indicates roughly $10 million for Friday to Sunday.

Despite opening in only 2300 theatres, Holes should finish second this weekend. Holes has several things going for it. It’s a long weekend, it’s based on the popular and award-winning children’s book, and it has good reviews. Its reviews are the best for a wide release this weekend, with over two thirds of the reviews positive. With a relatively low budget movie ($20 million for production and a little more than that for advertising) Holes should make Disney very happy, and it could make close to its production budget on opening weekend.

Battling for third place with Bulletproof Monk will be Malibu’s Most Wanted. Surprisingly, this spin-off from the Jamie Kennedy Experiment is getting better reviews than Bulletproof Monk. Although, that is not saying much as both are getting hammered by the critics.

The only other two movies released in more than a handful of theatres could both make it into the top ten. Chasing Papi is almost assured a spot in the top ten after finishing 5th on Wednesday. On the other hand, A Mighty Wind might not make it, but it should finish near the top of the Per Theatre Average chart.

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Movie Websites Launches for April 10 - April 16

2003-04-16

k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.


Bulletproof Monk
Current Content: No change from when I reviewed it last. Movie clips are still marked coming soon.


Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle
Current Content: The new full-length trailer is up, as is some more photos and wallpapers. The animated adventures and games are still coming soon.


Finding Nemo
Current Content: The latest from Pixar studios, this site has a synopsis / behind the scenes section, three trailers, character bios, gallery, fish facts and a one game, with more to come. Also, when you move the cursor bubbles come out, which is a nice touch. There are also sounds of the ocean playing in the background, which you can not only turn on, and off, but adjust the volume. It’s a simple addition that is very helpful. All in all, this site is truly deserving of the undisputed Weekly Website Award


Holes
Current Content: Another movie opening this week, and another one with no new content since I reviewed it last. It’s still an excellent site and worth checking out.


Hollywood Homicide
Current Content: Still two months away, so the fact that there’s just a trailer so far is not a shock.


Hypnotic
Current Content: Along with the usual information (Cast and crew bios, synopsis, trailer) there are behinds the scenes information and a gallery in Java format. There are also five ‘disturbing’ images that are distorted (sometimes based on mouse movements.) While you are watching these images there’s creepy music playing in the background. I think the site would have benefited if that music were playing all the time.


The In-Laws
Current Content: A new flash site was launched, and while there is plenty of information (synopsis, cast and crew bios) and multimedia (trailer, poster, photo gallery) and downloads (wallpapers and buddy icons) there are even more features marked coming soon.


Jeepers Creepers 2
Current Content: New format, but the only new content is three e-cards.


The Lizzie McGuire Movie
Current Content: This week a flash site was activated, and while there’s a new format, most of the content is the same. There are some new photos and character bios to read, and a couple of sections marked coming soon.


Malibu’s Most Wanted
Current Content: A very well done flash site with a lot of multimedia content. A trailer, a beer commercial featuring B-Rad G, and a clip from the movie are all on the site. There’s also a link to B-Rad G’s personal site, which has even more clips from the movie and Jamie Kennedy Experiment. There’s also songs from his CD Malibootay. While there certainly is a lot here, it all seems very much the same.


S.W.A.T.
Current Content: Just the trailer, but the movie is months away, so that should change.


Winged Migrations
Current Content: Flash site with mostly behind the scene information - what birds are featured, their migratory paths, how the shots were taken, and a statement director and his bio. There are also a lot of links for more bird information if this site doesn’t have enough. From the more traditional website fare, we have the trailer and a couple of wallpapers to download.


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Movie Websites Launches for March 27 - April 2

2003-04-02

k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. This was a very busy week with lots of placeholder sites that were launched, so many that they were placed in there own section at the end of the list. In the coming months I’ll keep track of these sites reporting on new content as it added, (if any is added.) If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.


Bullet Proof Monk
Current Content: This site offers a good mix of style and substance. In addition to the usual features, (synopsis, trailer, cast and crew bios) there’s a storyboard of one of the fight scenes narrated by the director, Paul Hunter. There are also come downloads, (wallpaper, buddy icons and E-cards) and a section for movie clips marked, coming soon.


City of Ghosts
Current Content: New Flash site added. Navigating the site is easy and the graphics are very intriguing. In addition to the previous content, there are cast and crew bios, new images, wallpapers, buddy icons and a map of Cambodia. There are also clips from the movie marked coming soon.


Cowboy Bebop
Current Content: Well laid out design with good content both in text (synopsis, background information) and multimedia (images, trailer and movie clips.) The background information is especially helpful to surfers who have not seen the TV show.


Dumb and Dumberer: When Harry met Lloyd
Current Content: The new site is back after appearing for several hours a couple of weeks ago. The bulletin board presentation is a nice touch. While there is plenty to watch, (trailer, photos and even a toilet) there’s not much to read. No synopsis, no cast and crew bios, no behinds the scenes.


The Good Thief
Current Content: A little different sense of style sets this site apart from others. And the usual information, (synopsis, cast and crew bios, photo gallery and trailer) make this an effective, if somewhat plain site. There is background music, but the clips are a little short to add much to the experience.


Holes
Current Content: An excellent site with a lot to check out. There are extensive cast and crew, and character, bios to read, as well as a synopsis and behind-the-scenes information. The trailer is available and so is a 60-second clip of the music video Dig It by the D-Tent Boys. A clip of the song plays on the main site as well, it’s long enough to be effective, but the looping is a little rough. Also, sound clips from Mr. Sir play occasionally, so there’s a lot to listen to as well as watch. And then there’s the interactive portion of the site. In the Wreck Room you can play a game of Find Zero! make your own creepy crawly or send e-cards. Plus, there are lesson plans for teachers to use. The best site of the week and winner of the festive Weekly Website Award.


The Hulk
Current Content: A little bit as been added, as the release date grows nearer. New game called Hulk Smash Up. Basically a clone of the old Rampage arcade game.


Levity
Current Content: Nothing new since it was first reviewed, so here’s a cut and paste of that review. “Flash Site starts with scenes from the robbery with happen 22 years before the events of the movie. Once the intro is done, there’s lots of information to read (synopsis, cast and crew bios, production notes and the director’s statement. Periodically images from the flash intro of the robbery reappear. While this is an interesting concept, it does make reading the text very difficult and disrupts the flow of an otherwise good site.”


A Man Apart
Current Content: Some new content since it was first reviewed most notably 3 short videos, (each about 30 seconds long) narrated by Vin Diesel. Also there are flash intros to some of the section.


The Man Without A Past
Current Content: A well done site, simple but effective. And after watching the trailer, it is quite safe to say the movie is the same. Quite a lot of information on the movie, including the usual suspects (Synopsis, Trailer, Cast and Crew Bios) and a statement from director Aki Kaurusmäki and information about his other projects.


Phone Booth
Current Content: Starts with a rather long and interactive intro, which makes the rest of the site a bit of a disappointment. Besides the intro there is a synopsis, cast bios, photo gallery and the trailer.


What a Girl Wants
Current Content: A very busy site that tries to pack in a lot on information. And for the most part succeeds. There’s text information that includes not just the synopsis and cast and crew bios, but information on the music, the costumes and the filming in England. You can view the trailer and couple of clips, download poster, screensaver, buddy icons, wallpapers and a calendar. Create your own e-cards, ask Amanda a question, flaunt your style or send a text message to a friend. There are a couple of contests you can enter (for US residents only.) Or visit What I Like About You or Amanada Bynes’ Official sites. Told you there was a lot. The transitions between sections help keep the site cohesive.


XX/XY
Current Content: A very utilitarian site that lacks style. However, there is a fair amount of substance. Synopsis, Trailer and cast and crew bios are joined by an interview with the director, three clips from the movie and a clip of the director talking about his inspiration.


Placeholder Sites


Duplex
Current Content: Like the rest of the Miramax movies’ site that launched this week, this one only has the synopsis and a trailer marked coming soon. All these site look identical and don’t keep a surfer's attention for more than a few seconds.


DysFUNKtional Family
Current Content: Another Miramax one page site. Includes just a synopsis and the trailer.


The Great Raid
Current Content: Synopsis and a trailer marked coming soon.


The Human Stain
Current Content: Just the synopsis and a trailer marked coming soon.


Jersey Girl
Current Content: Right now it’s just the synopsis. But as the release date comes closer expect View Askew to come up with a much more in-depth site. Thou it might not be at the current address.


Man on the Train
Current Content: So far, just the Synopsis. However, there’s a least a hint that more content will be added later on.


The Singing Detective
Current Content: Just the synopsis, with no additional features marked coming soon.


The Station Agent
Current Content: Just the synopsis and a trailer that is marked coming soon.


United States of Leland
Current Content: None, just a placeholder site till the release date gets closer.


Yossi & Jagger
Current Content: Just a synopsis and a theatre finder.


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