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The weekend after Memorial Day sees three new movies open wide, each with widely difference target audiences and wildly different expectations. Coming in second, and crashing back down to Earth will be Bruce Almighty. The huge first weekend take and a post holiday weekend means this film will drop more than 50%. However, since the film outperformed expectations by such a large margin the first week, a 50% drop will still leave a second weekend box office greater than what the studio were hoping for before it opened. There will be a close battle for third place between Matrix Reloaded and The Italian Job. The Matrix Reloaded is again tracking well below last week’s performance, which should result in another big drop. However, The Italian Job is only opening in 2,633 theatres, which is a little low. Surprisingly, The Italian Job is currently receiving nearly identical reviews as the Matrix. So look for the two movies to get nearly identical box office takes this week, around $18 million with a slight edge to the newcomer. Fifth place will also go down to the wire as Daddy Day Care and X-Men 2 fight to stay in the top 5 one more week. Both are shedding theaters, but X-Men 2 is doing it faster. On the other hand, Finding Nemo will surely draw more of Daddy Day Care’s target audience away than from the X-Men. Still, Daddy Day Care has the lead last weekend, and while it will shrink, it should still win this weekend $8 million to $7 million. Opening in only 1,615 theaters is the horror movie Wrong Turn, which has a plot reminiscent of The Lurking Fear by H.P. Lovecraft. The real surprise with the reviews is not that they’re as poor as they are, but that there are so few of them. As of noon Friday, there were only 6 reviews posted. But the target audience for these films generally doesn’t care about reviews or the lack thereof, so that shouldn’t affect the box office. And with a budget a mere fraction of the other films debuting this week, the studio should still be happy with $6 million and a seventh place finish. In eighth place will be The In-Laws, which unperformed when in debuted last week and will do the same this week with a little more than $4 million. There are two bright spots for the studio, the movie did have a lower budget than most and it should find a larger audience in the home market. In ninth place will be Down With Love, which unperformed when in debuted two weeks ago and will do the same this week with a little less than $3 million. Ok, enough of the cut and paste predictions, but the performance of the two previous movies has been very similar. Low expectations, even lower box offices and a quick descent down the charts. Rounding out the top ten is The Lizzie McGuire Movie, which is shedding theaters faster than its box office pull would suggest it should. Failure to support this film in the long run could cost Disney several million dollars off the final box office figure. Even with the lost theaters it should earn a little more than $2 million and cross the $40 million mark for its total box office. The studio’s share of that figure should cover production and advertising costs. Submitted by: C.S.Strowbridge
Estimated Theater Counts for Next Week's Openers
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Disney Dumps Duff2003-05-29 to the hit Lizzie McGuire Movie and the new network TV series base on the title character have been scrapped as Disney and Hilary Duff could not come to terms on a new agreement. Disney was offering $35,000 an episode; a substantial increase from the $15,000 Hilary Duff was earning while the show was on cable. However, compared to the $2 million she earns for a single movie, she would be doing more than twice the work for less than half the money. Dropping a successful franchise is never a wise move, especially considering Disney’s network (ABC) is commonly fourth out of four major networks. |
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Reloaded Breaks Records as X-Men Tumble2003-05-19 RIGHT"> | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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As expected, Matrix Reloaded’s opening was huge, but not big enough to keep up with last year when Attack of the Clones opened. After this weekend, 2003 will have fallen another $8 million behind last year’s pace.
While it is true that Matrix Reloaded broke records this weekend, it didn’t break as many as some are saying. This confusion is due to Wednesday’s 10 p.m. previews. Estimates for the Matrix Reloaded preview range from $5 to $9.3 million dollars. Regardless of which figure is more accurate; this did break a record for largest single showing preview. However, this figure was added to Thursday’s box office inflating it past Spider-Man for the largest opening day. Another record that might not be a record was the largest four-day total. Taking Thursday though Sunday we get a total that is on par with Spider-Man’s total of $126 million, depending on how much the Wednesday preview really brought in. Another record broken is largest opening for an R rated movie.
Comparing these figures to the first movie is difficult. The first movie opened slowly as none of the stars had real drawing power. Keanu Reeves was in a slump since Speed, Laurence Fishburne previous best was 14 years earlier, and The Matrix was Carrie Anne Moss’s first major movie. Matrix Reloaded did better on its opening day than the first did on its opening weekend. It made more than 70% of its total box office in just four days. The $92.8 million opening weekend and $134.3 million total are great news, but the lower than expected reviews will probably mean Spider-Man’s total box office of $400 million will not be beat.
In second place, with a surprisingly low drop-off was Daddy Day Care, taking $18.9 million. The Eddie Murphy family friendly movie has now earned $50 million in two weeks, and could be on it’s way to $100 million total.
Dropping 57% on its way from first to third was X-Men 2. The direct competition from Matrix Reloaded hurt it at the box office, but the $17.3 million was more than enough to surpass the first’s total box office. It goes without saying there’s another sequel in the works.
As predicted, Down With Love finished fourth, however, it did significantly worse at the box office than predicted. The 60’s retro comedy earned $7.0 million, less than half of some predictions. Its reviews were quite good compared to most films released this year, but were still shy of the 60% needed for an overall positive rating.
After a larger than expected second week drop-off, The Lizzie McGuire Movie recovered nicely to earn $4.8 million to stay in the top 5 for the third week in a row. For a movie that cost an estimated $25 million to make, and advertise, its box office total of over $32 million should make the studio very happy.
Hanging in the top ten for another week were A Mighty Wind and Bend it Like Beckham. The Folk music mockumentary’s second week in the top ten helped it’s total move past $12 million. Bend it Like Beckham has now been in the top ten for three weeks and its total is now over $15 million.
Submitted by:
2003-05-19
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As expected, Matrix Reloaded’s opening was huge, but not big enough to keep up with last year when Attack of the Clones opened. After this weekend, 2003 will have fallen another $8 million behind last year’s pace.
While it is true that Matrix Reloaded broke records this weekend, it didn’t break as many as some are saying. This confusion is due to Wednesday’s 10 p.m. previews. Estimates for the Matrix Reloaded preview range from $5 to $9.3 million dollars. Regardless of which figure is more accurate; this did break a record for largest single showing preview. However, this figure was added to Thursday’s box office inflating it past Spider-Man for the largest opening day. Another record that might not be a record was the largest four-day total. Taking Thursday though Sunday we get a total that is on par with Spider-Man’s total of $126 million, depending on how much the Wednesday preview really brought in. Another record broken is largest opening for an R rated movie.
Comparing these figures to the first movie is difficult. The first movie opened slowly as none of the stars had real drawing power. Keanu Reeves was in a slump since Speed, Laurence Fishburne previous best was 14 years earlier, and The Matrix was Carrie Anne Moss’s first major movie. Matrix Reloaded did better on its opening day than the first did on its opening weekend. It made more than 70% of its total box office in just four days. The $92.8 million opening weekend and $134.3 million total are great news, but the lower than expected reviews will probably mean Spider-Man’s total box office of $400 million will not be beat.
In second place, with a surprisingly low drop-off was Daddy Day Care, taking $18.9 million. The Eddie Murphy family friendly movie has now earned $50 million in two weeks, and could be on it’s way to $100 million total.
Dropping 57% on its way from first to third was X-Men 2. The direct competition from Matrix Reloaded hurt it at the box office, but the $17.3 million was more than enough to surpass the first’s total box office. It goes without saying there’s another sequel in the works.
As predicted, Down With Love finished fourth, however, it did significantly worse at the box office than predicted. The 60’s retro comedy earned $7.0 million, less than half of some predictions. Its reviews were quite good compared to most films released this year, but were still shy of the 60% needed for an overall positive rating.
After a larger than expected second week drop-off, The Lizzie McGuire Movie recovered nicely to earn $4.8 million to stay in the top 5 for the third week in a row. For a movie that cost an estimated $25 million to make, and advertise, its box office total of over $32 million should make the studio very happy.
Hanging in the top ten for another week were A Mighty Wind and Bend it Like Beckham. The Folk music mockumentary’s second week in the top ten helped it’s total move past $12 million. Bend it Like Beckham has now been in the top ten for three weeks and its total is now over $15 million.
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