The Numbers - Box Office Data, Movie Stars, Idle Speculation
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Wednesday, November 25, 2009

News Stories About Daddy Day Care

Nemo Takes Top Spot, Bruce Stays Almighty

2003-06-02

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For the first time in 2003, the weekend box office totals were significantly above the same week last year. The total box office for the top ten was up nearly 45% from 2002 year. This helped put May in the record books as the best month in box office history. But, even after May's record-breaking performance, 2003 is still behind 2002's total for the year to date.

Opening in first place, with a record weekend for both Computer Animation and a studio best for Pixar was Finding Nemo. The Albert Brooks fish tale earned $70.3 million at the box office, and if the stellar reviews and past Pixar performances are any indications, this movie could pull in close to $300 million domestically, and a little more than that internationally.

Bruce Almighty came in second, and did so with a smaller drop off than expected. $37.3 million was only a 45% decline, which is very good considering the huge opening weekend take and the post-holiday dip. Along the way Bruce Almighty became the largest grossing comedy of the year after crossing the $100 million mark on Thursday.

Third place went to the second of three wide releases this weekend. The Italian Job grabbed up $19.5 million, on par with predictions. Surprisingly good reviews could give this movie legs. However, with a $60 million production budget, and an advertising budget close to half that it won’t see a profit in the home market.

Continuing to drop faster than expected is The Matrix Reloaded, with $15.7 million, down nearly 58% over last weekend. The movie seems to be suffering from The Empire Strikes Back effect, that is to say it doesn't have the novelty of the first movie, and doesn't have the satisfying conclusion of the third movie. Speaking of Star Wars, The Matrix Reloaded is now just a few hundred thousand above Attack of the Clones' pace, despite having a $24 million lead after opening weekend. It will take a surge just before the release of Matrix Revolutions to push this film above $300 million.

Daddy Day Care was able to stay in the top five one last week with a $5.7 million dollar performance. The movie now has made a little more than $80 million in four weeks, and could have enough gas in the tank to cross $100 million.

Opening with a little weaker box office than predicted, but a spot higher was Wrong Turn. $5.2 million is not a lot of money for an opening weekend, but considering a budget of only $10 - $13 million, it should be enough to pull a profit from the home market. The reviews for Wrong Turn were not as low as one might have expected, getting a 50% score from the run-of-the-mill Internet reviewers. However, of the Cream-of-the-crop reviews, of which only four even bothered to review the movie, none of them gave it a positive review.

Coming in less than $100,000 behind in sixth place was X-Men 2 with $5.1 million. The mutant movie sequel just failed to cross the $200 million dollar mark but should do that by Tuesday. That total is enough to pay off the production budget, but it will take a bit more to make a profit domestically. However, add in its impressive international numbers and X-Men 2 has made Fox very happy.

The second Albert Brooks movie in the charts, The In-Laws, fell to eighth place with $3.7 million. It had one of the best drop-offs of the week, but that wasn’t good enough to save it: $14.5 million after two weeks is still a disappointment.

Down With Love dropped faster than predicted with only $1.6 million. Only $17.2 million after three weeks of wide release is quite a shock considering the talent attached to this film.

Rounding out the top ten is The Lizzie McGuire Movie, which was only able to grab $1.2 million this weekend and fell just shy of $40 million total. Fortunately, not only will it cross that mark before long; it will also have covered its total budget as well.

See the full weekend chart

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Can Nemo Find Box Office Success?

2003-05-30

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The weekend after Memorial Day sees three new movies open wide, each with widely difference target audiences and wildly different expectations.

Almost guaranteed to open first is Finding Nemo, the fifth film from Pixar studios. The real question with Finding Nemo is whether it will break records for the studio. It needs more than $62.5 million to better Monsters Inc. opening, which will be difficult - especially considering the post-Memorial Day dip that is historically experienced at the box office. However, Finding Nemo does have a higher theater count (3,374 to 3,237) and unbelievably high reviews going for it. Currently there is only one reviewer on Rotten Tomatoes that is not giving it a positive review. That puts it above both Monsters Inc. and A Bug’s Life, but amazing below both Toy Story 1 and 2, both of which received 100% positive reviews.

Coming in second, and crashing back down to Earth will be Bruce Almighty. The huge first weekend take and a post holiday weekend means this film will drop more than 50%. However, since the film outperformed expectations by such a large margin the first week, a 50% drop will still leave a second weekend box office greater than what the studio were hoping for before it opened.

There will be a close battle for third place between Matrix Reloaded and The Italian Job. The Matrix Reloaded is again tracking well below last week’s performance, which should result in another big drop. However, The Italian Job is only opening in 2,633 theatres, which is a little low. Surprisingly, The Italian Job is currently receiving nearly identical reviews as the Matrix. So look for the two movies to get nearly identical box office takes this week, around $18 million with a slight edge to the newcomer.

Fifth place will also go down to the wire as Daddy Day Care and X-Men 2 fight to stay in the top 5 one more week. Both are shedding theaters, but X-Men 2 is doing it faster. On the other hand, Finding Nemo will surely draw more of Daddy Day Care’s target audience away than from the X-Men. Still, Daddy Day Care has the lead last weekend, and while it will shrink, it should still win this weekend $8 million to $7 million.

Opening in only 1,615 theaters is the horror movie Wrong Turn, which has a plot reminiscent of The Lurking Fear by H.P. Lovecraft. The real surprise with the reviews is not that they’re as poor as they are, but that there are so few of them. As of noon Friday, there were only 6 reviews posted. But the target audience for these films generally doesn’t care about reviews or the lack thereof, so that shouldn’t affect the box office. And with a budget a mere fraction of the other films debuting this week, the studio should still be happy with $6 million and a seventh place finish.

In eighth place will be The In-Laws, which unperformed when in debuted last week and will do the same this week with a little more than $4 million. There are two bright spots for the studio, the movie did have a lower budget than most and it should find a larger audience in the home market.

In ninth place will be Down With Love, which unperformed when in debuted two weeks ago and will do the same this week with a little less than $3 million. Ok, enough of the cut and paste predictions, but the performance of the two previous movies has been very similar. Low expectations, even lower box offices and a quick descent down the charts.

Rounding out the top ten is The Lizzie McGuire Movie, which is shedding theaters faster than its box office pull would suggest it should. Failure to support this film in the long run could cost Disney several million dollars off the final box office figure. Even with the lost theaters it should earn a little more than $2 million and cross the $40 million mark for its total box office. The studio’s share of that figure should cover production and advertising costs.

Submitted by: C.S.Strowbridge

RankMovieTheatersChangeWeeks in
Release
Distributor
1Bruce Almighty3,490+82Universal
2Matrix Reloaded, The3,453-1503Warner Bros.
3Finding Nemo3,374New1Buena Vista
4Daddy Day Care3,128-3444Sony
5In-Laws, The (2003)2,652n/c2Warner Bros.
6Italian Job, The (2003)2,633New1Paramount
7X2: X-Men United2,533-5345Fox
8Wrong Turn1,615New1Fox
9Lizzie McGuire Movie, The1,330-7885Buena Vista
10Down with Love1,300-8174Fox

34Bhoot20New1Spark Media
40Together (Han Ni Zai Yiki)6New1MGM
43Capturing the Friedmans3New1Magnolia


Estimated Theater Counts for Next Week's Openers

MovieTheatersDistributor
2 Fast 2 Furious3,200Universal
Whale Rider9New Market
Eye, The4Palm Pictures

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Bruce Mightier Than the Matrix

2003-05-27

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Memorial Day Weekend had more than a few surprises this year as records were broken, but not by the movie most people expected to break them. Overall, the box office was in a dead heat with last year's with only a 1% increase. But it was an increase, which is better news than most weeks this year.

Setting records for largest Memorial Day Weekend and largest non-sequel comedy among others was Bruce Almighty. With a box office of $85.7 million over four days it destroyed the competition and nearly doubled most predictions. Even with reviews that are just average, this movie should have more than enough legs to make a profit domestically.

In second with a huge drop was Matrix Reloaded. My prediction on Friday of $55 million was one of the lowest, and it still wasn’t low enough. $45.6 million over four days was a 50% drop, and its three-day total was nearly 60% lower. After the first weekend, Matrix Reloaded had a $24 million lead on Attack of the Clones, now that lead has been cut to $9 million. For a film that just last week, people were predicting $400 million, Matrix Reloaded might struggle to cross $300 million. This is one of the sharpest and most unexpected drops in recent memory. Still, Matrix Reloaded did top the original’s box office in only 9 days, and became the year’s biggest hit the next day. So there are some bright spots.

Still topping expectations was Daddy Day Care. $18.1 million over four days was barely a noticeable drop from last week. But with a hefty $90 million production and advertising budget, Daddy Day Care will still have to wait till the home market to make a profit.

Recovering nicely from early drops was X-Men 2, sitting in fourth place. A better than average drop-off allowed the mutant movie to edge closer to the $200 million mark, a milestone it should cross next weekend. Combined with the overseas numbers, X-Men 2 has already made the studio a profit.

Earning less than most analysts predicted was the remake The In-Laws. $9.2 million was only good enough for fifth place and the reviews were on the weak side and competition is just too great for this movie to have the legs needed to make the studio happy. This is the second disappointing film for Michael Douglas in as many months, and Albert Brooks has another movie being released next week. But it’s almost a guarantee that Finding Nemo will be a success.

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Can the Matrix Remain Mighty?

2003-05-23

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Memorial Day Weekend is typically the busiest weekend of the year, and this year it is shaping up to be the same with two movies battling for top spot. However, last years records are probably safe.

In first place will be Matrix Reloaded, but it might not break Attack of the Clones’ Memorial Day Weekend record. Matrix Reloaded started out 33% above Attack of the Clones, but had a larger drop on Friday, smaller increase Saturday, etc. In fact, only once in the first week did the Matrix Reloaded’s day to day change beat Attack of the Clones’ performance, and by Wednesday it fell behind in daily box office. Combined with the increased competition from new releases this year compared to last and I predict Matrix Reloaded will drop just shy of 40% and make $55 million.

Bruce Almighty is the first of the new openers this weekend and it could open with personal bests for all three stars. Granted for Jennifer Aniston that’s not a hard feat as her previous best was $9.7 with The Object of My Affection. Reviews for Bruce Almighty are not great, but are on par with Me, Myself and Irene, but far behind Liar, Liar. However, there is enough positive buzz to overcome those reviews, for at least one weekend. Look for a $50 million opening weekend, but with an uncertain longevity.

After a smaller than expected second week drop Daddy Day Care was able to add theatres pushing its theatre count to nearly 3500. With the long weekend, expect an even smaller drop-off this time. It’s tracking just 10% behind last week’s number so a box office of $17 million is a pretty save bet.

The second of the new releases is The In-Laws, a remake of the 1979 movie of the same name. This time around it’s stars Michael Douglas and Albert Brooks. Neither star has had a lot of box office success lately; and this movie will neither be a box office smash, nor will it be a failure. Reviews are currently exactly the same as Bruce Almighty, but The In-Laws has an older target audience so look for a $12 million opening and better legs. On a side note, next week another Albert Brooks' movie opens wide, the computer animated fish tale Finding Nemo.

Dropping to fifth place will be X-Men 2. Earlier in the week, the mutant movie was tracking more than 50% below the previous week’s. But a late week recovery plus the long weekend it could help it avoid dropping below $10 million, but that’s not a sure thing.

Submitted by: C.S.Strowbridge

RankMovieTheatersChangeWeeks in
Release
Distributor
1Matrix Reloaded, The3,603n/c2Warner Bros.
2Bruce Almighty3,482New1Universal
3Daddy Day Care3,472+643Sony
4X2: X-Men United3,067-4224Fox
5In-Laws, The (2003)2,652New1Warner Bros.
6Lizzie McGuire Movie, The2,118-5404Buena Vista
7Down with Love2,117-73Fox
8Anger Management1,809-6677Sony
9Holes1,762-4706Buena Vista
10Identity1,590-6065Sony

11Italian Job, The (2003)1,034New1Paramount (Sneak previews on Saturday)
41Respiro7New1Sony Classics
44Friday Night (Vendredi Soir)3New1WellSpring
48Gigantic: A Tale of Two Johns1New1Cowboy


Estimated Theater Counts for Next Week's Openers

MovieTheatersDistributor
Finding Nemo3,200Buena Vista
Italian Job, The (2003)2,500Paramount
Wrong Turn1,500Fox
Together (Han Ni Zai Yiki)6MGM
Capturing the Friedmans3Magnolia

See the full theater

Reloaded Breaks Records as X-Men Tumble

2003-05-19

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As expected, Matrix Reloaded’s opening was huge, but not big enough to keep up with last year when Attack of the Clones opened. After this weekend, 2003 will have fallen another $8 million behind last year’s pace.

While it is true that Matrix Reloaded broke records this weekend, it didn’t break as many as some are saying. This confusion is due to Wednesday’s 10 p.m. previews. Estimates for the Matrix Reloaded preview range from $5 to $9.3 million dollars. Regardless of which figure is more accurate; this did break a record for largest single showing preview. However, this figure was added to Thursday’s box office inflating it past Spider-Man for the largest opening day. Another record that might not be a record was the largest four-day total. Taking Thursday though Sunday we get a total that is on par with Spider-Man’s total of $126 million, depending on how much the Wednesday preview really brought in. Another record broken is largest opening for an R rated movie.

Comparing these figures to the first movie is difficult. The first movie opened slowly as none of the stars had real drawing power. Keanu Reeves was in a slump since Speed, Laurence Fishburne previous best was 14 years earlier, and The Matrix was Carrie Anne Moss’s first major movie. Matrix Reloaded did better on its opening day than the first did on its opening weekend. It made more than 70% of its total box office in just four days. The $92.8 million opening weekend and $134.3 million total are great news, but the lower than expected reviews will probably mean Spider-Man’s total box office of $400 million will not be beat.

In second place, with a surprisingly low drop-off was Daddy Day Care, taking $18.9 million. The Eddie Murphy family friendly movie has now earned $50 million in two weeks, and could be on it’s way to $100 million total.

Dropping 57% on its way from first to third was X-Men 2. The direct competition from Matrix Reloaded hurt it at the box office, but the $17.3 million was more than enough to surpass the first’s total box office. It goes without saying there’s another sequel in the works.

As predicted, Down With Love finished fourth, however, it did significantly worse at the box office than predicted. The 60’s retro comedy earned $7.0 million, less than half of some predictions. Its reviews were quite good compared to most films released this year, but were still shy of the 60% needed for an overall positive rating.

After a larger than expected second week drop-off, The Lizzie McGuire Movie recovered nicely to earn $4.8 million to stay in the top 5 for the third week in a row. For a movie that cost an estimated $25 million to make, and advertise, its box office total of over $32 million should make the studio very happy.

Hanging in the top ten for another week were A Mighty Wind and Bend it Like Beckham. The Folk music mockumentary’s second week in the top ten helped it’s total move past $12 million. Bend it Like Beckham has now been in the top ten for three weeks and its total is now over $15 million.

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How Huge is The Matrix Reloaded?

2003-05-15

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The Matrix Reloaded opens today, and expectations are huge, both critically and at the box office.

It is safe to say The Matrix Reloaded will win the weekend, the real question is by how much? If it doesn’t make more today (Thursday) than the first made during its opening weekend (roughly 28 million) it will be seen as a disappointment. And if it doesn’t break $100 million by Saturday or Sunday at the latest, 2003 will fall further behind 2002 as far as the box office goes. There are a couple of warning signs which suggest Matrix Reloaded won’t be able to handle the pressure. Critically the movie is getting mostly great reviews, but its 78% positive is nearly a full 10 percentage points below the original. Compare that to X-Men 2 which beat the original’s reviews by 7 percentage points. Also, the extreme hype has the potential to cause backlash, and there is some evidence that this is happening. These signs aside, look for Matrix Reloaded to help this weekend be at least on pace with last year.

Dropping to second place is X-Men 2, which currently sits just $2 million behind the original’s total box office. Weekday tracking shows an even larger drop-off is in store for this weekend. However, that could be mitigated by Matrix overflow. X-Men 2 should make roughly $20 million this weekend.

Weekday tracking for Daddy Day Care suggests that a 50% second week drop off could be in the cards. Best case scenario still sees it lose more than 40%, which is not good for a family movie.

Coming in fourth will be the second new opener this week, Down With Love. Opening in only 2,200 theaters and with only moderately good reviews it should grab a respectable $6000 per theater for a total of $13 million. Enough to make the studio happy, but not enough to start a new trend.

In fifth place should be The Lizzie McGuire Movie, with an estimated $4 million. The studios share of the box office is already enough to pay for the production costs, and the P & A budget should be covered in a few more weeks.

Submitted by: C.S.Strowbridge

RankMovieTheatersChangeWeeks in
Release
Distributor
1Matrix Reloaded, The3,603New1Warner Bros.
2X2: X-Men United3,489-2593Fox
3Daddy Day Care3,408+382Sony
4Lizzie McGuire Movie, The2,658-1673Buena Vista
5Anger Management2,476-3436Sony
6Holes2,232-2205Buena Vista
7Identity2,196-4224Sony
8Down with Love2,124+2,1232Fox
9Malibu's Most Wanted811-1,1975Warner Bros.
10Mighty Wind, A770+55Warner Bros.

18Pokemon Heroes196New1Miramax
34Armaan50New1Eros
42L'Auberge Espagnole (US Release)11New1Fox Searchlight
48Sweet Sixteen3New1Lions Gate
51Woman is a Woman, A2New1Rialto
52Beyond Vanilla1New1Strand
53Dracula: Pages from a Virgin's Diary1New1Zeitgeist
54Sea, The1New1Palm/Manga


Estimated Theater Counts for Next Week's Openers

MovieTheatersDistributor
Bruce Almighty3,300Universal
In-Laws, The (2003)2,400Warner Bros.

See the full theater

X-Men 2 Beats the Day Care Kids

2003-05-12

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It was a slow week as only one movie opened wide, but this is just the calm before the storm that is Matrix Reloaded. Compared to last year, the summer is falling further behind and needs Matrix Reloaded to open huge on Wednesday.

No surprise which movie came in first. X-Men 2 lost a lot in its second weekend, but not as much as some had predicted. Also not as much as X-Men dropped in its second week, so better legs could push the final box office higher than the original predictions and into the Top 20 All Time. Down 53.2% to $40.0 million for a total of nearly $150 million, just $10 million shy of the original’s total box office.

In second place was Daddy Dare Care with $27.6 million. This continues a trend for Eddie Murphy whose only big hits recently seem aimed at a decidedly younger audience. Reviews were very bad with only 29% positive, include only 19% from the cream of the crop reviewers. So that could hurt Daddy Day Care’s longevity at the theatres, and with a cost of $60 million to make and $30 million to advertise Sony and Revolution studios will probably have to wait for the home market to see a profit.

On Friday I predicted that The Lizzie McGuire Movie would have the lowest drop-off in the top five, as it turned out it had the highest dropping 58% to $7.2 million. This is very surprising considering the younger target audience, which usually means better legs at the theatre. This could be an anomaly due to Mother’s Day, or it could a sign of the Fanboy Effect, or should I say Fangirl Effect. Even with a much greater drop-off The Lizzie McGuire Movie should get the little more than $40 million needed to be profitable during its domestic run.

Holding up better than most horror / suspense films is Identity, which was down only 31% for its third. The weekend figure of $6.5 million was good enough for fourth place and brought its total to nearly $40 million. Identity should continue in the top ten for a few more weeks and surpass its combined budget before its domestic run is finished.

In its fifth week and in fifth place was Anger Management with $5.7 million for a total of $122 million. The movie is shedding theatres fast but should still put in one or two more appearances in the top ten.

Two movies with limited distribution made the top ten this week. A Mighty Wind expanded into 765 theatres and moved from 14th last weekend to 7th this weekend. The mockumentary look at folk music needs about $20 million to make a profit during its domestic run, and that is definitely in sight. The second limited release film was Bend It Like Beckham. A small increase in theatres to 555 and an actual increase in per theatre average helped the British film land in 9th spot after 9 weeks in release. Already profitable from its international run Bend It Like Beckham is getting extra exposure by finishing in the top ten, so it could still climb a spot or two in the coming weeks.

Submitted by: C.

Kids Battle Mutants for Box Office Crown

2003-05-09

movie opens wide, Daddy Day Care, but it does open in almost 3400 theatres. Will that be enough to unseat X-Men as box office champ? In a word, no.

X-Men 2 earned so much on its opening weekend that a 50% drop is almost assumed. Before X-Men 2, more than half the movies with previous top ten opening weekends suffered a 50% drop on their second weekend. Weekday tracking, original movie’s performance, fanboy effect all suggest this trend will continue. Still, even a 60% drop would be enough to win this weekend.

Eddie Murphy’s career has been hit and miss recently, misses like I Spy and Pluto Nash are offset by hits like Dr. Doolittle and The Nutty Professor. But where does Daddy Day Care fit in? Reviews, which are poor, suggest a box office similar to Showtime. But the target audience suggests closer to Dr. Doolittle. Split the difference for a $20 million box office.

The rest of the top five will be made up last weeks 2 through 4, in the same order. The Lizzie McGuire Movie will probably have the lowers drop off in the top five, and should finish comfortably in third place with $10 million. That would make its total box office more than its total budget in less than 2 weeks. We will be seeing a lot more of Hilary Duff after this.

Identity will drop to fourth place, with a little more than $6 million. Identity’s total box office could reach $40 million by this weekend on its way to a $55 million total box office. Not bad for a movie that cost about half that to make.

Anger Management is really shedding theatres, while Holes is still picking some up. So we could see Holes overtake it to stay in top five for one more week. Either way, the fifth place finished should grab an additional $5 million.

Two additional notes for this weekend: A Mighty Wind is expanding into 765 theatres and should end up in the top ten. Also, The In-Laws is having a preview in 800 theatres on Saturday; it opens wide on May 23rd.

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Movie Websites Launches for April 3 - April 9

2003-04-09

k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.


Alex and Emma
Current Content: Just the synopsis, trailer and a single photo. This design has been used on many Warner Bros. sites, but usually just till the full site is up a running.


American Wedding
Current Content: Just the synopsis, but it’s early and there should be plenty more added in the nearly four months till the release date.


Anger Management
Current Content: A lot of things to watch and, hear and play. Behind the scene clips, relaxing nature mp3s, some screensavers / wallpapers, and even a couple of games based on some SNES games. You can even evaluate a friend to see if they need therapy.


L'Auberge Espagnole
Current Content: Just the synopsis and the cast and crew list. But Fox Searchlight isn’t known for skimping on their sites, so look for more later on.


Better Luck Tomorrow
Current Content: Lots of information on this site, not only for the movie, but for the behind the scenes documentary, BLT Genesis. Synopsis, Trailer and Cast and Crew Bios, Images, and a lot of press. And I mean a lot of press. There are dozens of articles, several reviews and even more news and awards.


Daddy Day Care
Current Content: Flash site containing a few features beyond the usual synopsis, trailer and cast and crew bios. Wallpaper, images and instant messenger icons as well as character bios for the children. There are also two games to play, and several features marked coming soon.


Ghosts of the Abyss
Current Content: Not much new since I last reviewed it. However, there is a new ‘Bot Challenge Game to play.


House of 1000 Corpses
Current Content: This site is quite gruesome, but not as much as you’d expect given the nature of the movie. Besides the trailer, synopsis and cast bios, there are lots of images.


Identity
Current Content: It is so hard to tell if there’s new content on this site, cause it is so non-linear. (Which is what makes it stand out so much.) However, this week I’m sure there’s something new since I last reviewed it. Not quite enough for it to win the weekly award, but almost.


The Italian Job
Current Content: Just the trailer and characters (no bios, yet.) I like how the Mini Cooper is in the character list. Hopefully there will be more as the release date nears.


Pulse
Current Content: For most sites sound feels like an afterthought, if it’s there at all. For this site, it’s the main focus. Which makes perfect sense with the subject matter. Along with the usual synopsis and trailer, are extensive performer bios, two minute long slips from the soundtrack and three interactive sound sections in the Sound Lab. Including Beat Chaser, which is sort of like the old Simon game, but you have to match the sound and the tempo. Teacher’s have a section for lesson plans, educational links, etc. The impressive use of sound alone would be enough to win the Indescribable Weekly Website Award, but the overall package is excellent.


Thirteen
Current Content: Like the other Fox Searchlight sites released this week, this one has just the synopsis and the cast and crew, no bios.


Uptown Girls
Current Content: Just the synopsis and the trailer but this film isn’t scheduled to be released till late summer, so there’s plenty of time for updates.


XX/XY
Current Content: The only new additions are some images from the movie and the premiere.


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