News Stories About A Mighty Wind Oscar Prediction: Best Song 2004-02-27 Today's Oscar prediction is for one of the more minor categories, which are often harder to predict than the big awards. But this year, Numbers readers seem to be of one accord on the song destined to pick up the Oscar. King Oscar, Lord of the Nominations 2004-01-27 Nominations for the 76the Annual Academy Awards were announced today. As always, here is a list of the nominations, plus reactions below. Reloaded Breaks Records as X-Men Tumble 2003-05-19 RIGHT"> Buy this poster at AllPosters.com As expected, Matrix Reloaded’s opening was huge, but not big enough to keep up with last year when Attack of the Clones opened. After this weekend, 2003 will have fallen another $8 million behind last year’s pace. While it is true that Matrix Reloaded broke records this weekend, it didn’t break as many as some are saying. This confusion is due to Wednesday’s 10 p.m. previews. Estimates for the Matrix Reloaded preview range from $5 to $9.3 million dollars. Regardless of which figure is more accurate; this did break a record for largest single showing preview. However, this figure was added to Thursday’s box office inflating it past Spider-Man for the largest opening day. Another record that might not be a record was the largest four-day total. Taking Thursday though Sunday we get a total that is on par with Spider-Man’s total of $126 million, depending on how much the Wednesday preview really brought in. Another record broken is largest opening for an R rated movie. Comparing these figures to the first movie is difficult. The first movie opened slowly as none of the stars had real drawing power. Keanu Reeves was in a slump since Speed, Laurence Fishburne previous best was 14 years earlier, and The Matrix was Carrie Anne Moss’s first major movie. Matrix Reloaded did better on its opening day than the first did on its opening weekend. It made more than 70% of its total box office in just four days. The $92.8 million opening weekend and $134.3 million total are great news, but the lower than expected reviews will probably mean Spider-Man’s total box office of $400 million will not be beat. In second place, with a surprisingly low drop-off was Daddy Day Care, taking $18.9 million. The Eddie Murphy family friendly movie has now earned $50 million in two weeks, and could be on it’s way to $100 million total. Dropping 57% on its way from first to third was X-Men 2. The direct competition from Matrix Reloaded hurt it at the box office, but the $17.3 million was more than enough to surpass the first’s total box office. It goes without saying there’s another sequel in the works. As predicted, Down With Love finished fourth, however, it did significantly worse at the box office than predicted. The 60’s retro comedy earned $7.0 million, less than half of some predictions. Its reviews were quite good compared to most films released this year, but were still shy of the 60% needed for an overall positive rating. After a larger than expected second week drop-off, The Lizzie McGuire Movie recovered nicely to earn $4.8 million to stay in the top 5 for the third week in a row. For a movie that cost an estimated $25 million to make, and advertise, its box office total of over $32 million should make the studio very happy. Hanging in the top ten for another week were A Mighty Wind and Bend it Like Beckham. The Folk music mockumentary’s second week in the top ten helped it’s total move past $12 million. Bend it Like Beckham has now been in the top ten for three weeks and its total is now over $15 million. Submitted by:	X-Men 2 Beats the Day Care Kids 2003-05-12 RIGHT">
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It was a slow week as only one movie opened wide, but this is just the calm before the storm that is Matrix Reloaded. Compared to last year, the summer is falling further behind and needs Matrix Reloaded to open huge on Wednesday.

No surprise which movie came in first. X-Men 2 lost a lot in its second weekend, but not as much as some had predicted. Also not as much as X-Men dropped in its second week, so better legs could push the final box office higher than the original predictions and into the Top 20 All Time. Down 53.2% to $40.0 million for a total of nearly $150 million, just $10 million shy of the original’s total box office.

In second place was Daddy Dare Care with $27.6 million. This continues a trend for Eddie Murphy whose only big hits recently seem aimed at a decidedly younger audience. Reviews were very bad with only 29% positive, include only 19% from the cream of the crop reviewers. So that could hurt Daddy Day Care’s longevity at the theatres, and with a cost of $60 million to make and $30 million to advertise Sony and Revolution studios will probably have to wait for the home market to see a profit.

On Friday I predicted that The Lizzie McGuire Movie would have the lowest drop-off in the top five, as it turned out it had the highest dropping 58% to $7.2 million. This is very surprising considering the younger target audience, which usually means better legs at the theatre. This could be an anomaly due to Mother’s Day, or it could a sign of the Fanboy Effect, or should I say Fangirl Effect. Even with a much greater drop-off The Lizzie McGuire Movie should get the little more than $40 million needed to be profitable during its domestic run.

Holding up better than most horror / suspense films is Identity, which was down only 31% for its third. The weekend figure of $6.5 million was good enough for fourth place and brought its total to nearly $40 million. Identity should continue in the top ten for a few more weeks and surpass its combined budget before its domestic run is finished.

In its fifth week and in fifth place was Anger Management with $5.7 million for a total of $122 million. The movie is shedding theatres fast but should still put in one or two more appearances in the top ten.

Two movies with limited distribution made the top ten this week. A Mighty Wind expanded into 765 theatres and moved from 14th last weekend to 7th this weekend. The mockumentary look at folk music needs about $20 million to make a profit during its domestic run, and that is definitely in sight. The second limited release film was Bend It Like Beckham. A small increase in theatres to 555 and an actual increase in per theatre average helped the British film land in 9th spot after 9 weeks in release. Already profitable from its international run Bend It Like Beckham is getting extra exposure by finishing in the top ten, so it could still climb a spot or two in the coming weeks.

Submitted by: C.

Kids Battle Mutants for Box Office Crown

2003-05-09

movie opens wide, Daddy Day Care, but it does open in almost 3400 theatres. Will that be enough to unseat X-Men as box office champ? In a word, no.

X-Men 2 earned so much on its opening weekend that a 50% drop is almost assumed. Before X-Men 2, more than half the movies with previous top ten opening weekends suffered a 50% drop on their second weekend. Weekday tracking, original movie’s performance, fanboy effect all suggest this trend will continue. Still, even a 60% drop would be enough to win this weekend.

Eddie Murphy’s career has been hit and miss recently, misses like I Spy and Pluto Nash are offset by hits like Dr. Doolittle and The Nutty Professor. But where does Daddy Day Care fit in? Reviews, which are poor, suggest a box office similar to Showtime. But the target audience suggests closer to Dr. Doolittle. Split the difference for a $20 million box office.

The rest of the top five will be made up last weeks 2 through 4, in the same order. The Lizzie McGuire Movie will probably have the lowers drop off in the top five, and should finish comfortably in third place with $10 million. That would make its total box office more than its total budget in less than 2 weeks. We will be seeing a lot more of Hilary Duff after this.

Identity will drop to fourth place, with a little more than $6 million. Identity’s total box office could reach $40 million by this weekend on its way to a $55 million total box office. Not bad for a movie that cost about half that to make.

Anger Management is really shedding theatres, while Holes is still picking some up. So we could see Holes overtake it to stay in top five for one more week. Either way, the fifth place finished should grab an additional $5 million.

Two additional notes for this weekend: A Mighty Wind is expanding into 765 theatres and should end up in the top ten. Also, The In-Laws is having a preview in 800 theatres on Saturday; it opens wide on May 23rd.

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Winged Migration Soars

2003-04-21

probably the weirdest one - two finish on the Per Theatre Average chart. Coming in first was the Oscar nominated documentary Winged Migration. The documentary earned $33,128 in its only theatre. In second place was the Folk Music Mockumentary, A Mighty Wind. The partially improvisational mockumentary made over $2 million in just 133 theatres for an average of $15,880.

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Anger Management Wins a Soft Easter

2003-04-21

having Friday off, this Easter Weekend was not as strong as the same weekend last year, which was not even a long weekend. And it was about a quarter less than last Easter weekend.

Anger Management was able to hang on to first place but even with the long weekend it dropped more than 40%. Still, it looks like it will be able to match Mr. Deeds’ $126 million, or at least come close. But with a production and advertising budget estimated to be over $100 million, that might not be enough.

In second place was the kids movie Holes. Originally planned for a January release, it was moved to Easter weekend, and that strategy seems to have paid off. Its $16.3 million opening weekend is just a few million shy of its production budget. And the good news continues Holes not only had great reviews, but also great CinemaScores, something that hasn’t happened in a while. Look for this movie to have legs, and it might launch the careers of some of the mostly unknown actors who played the kids of D-Tent.

Malibu’s Most Wanted did a little better than expected with $12.6 million, good enough for 3rd place. Reviews were poor, but better than expected and CinemaScores were average, also better than expected. With the lowest costs in the top five, Warner Bros. should be happy and this could result in a sequel, which will not make many critics happy.

Doing much weaker than originally forecasted, and weaker than the lower revised prediction was Bulletproof Monk. After getting horrible reviews, it did receive average CinemaScores. But the $8.7 million opening weekend after getting $3 million Wednesday and Thursday is nothing short of disaster.

Rounding out the top five was Phone Booth with just under $6 million. Phone Booth has already paid for its production budget, but is not enough to solidify Colin Farrell’s star status.

The only other movies to open in more than a few select cities were not able to maintain their early momentum. After opening in fifth place, Chasing Papi dropped all the way to eleventh. A Mighty Wind finished 13th after opening in the top ten. However, both were just a few hundred thousand away from the 9th place. In fact, there was less than $1 million between 8th and 15th.

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Anger Management set to Win Weekend Again

2003-04-18

set to open today, after three opened on Wednesday, but it looks like none of them will give Anger Management much competition for first place. Originally, I predicted Bulletproof Monk would finish second, but that may no longer be the case. Wednesday’s take was only $1.4 million, which indicates roughly $10 million for Friday to Sunday.

Despite opening in only 2300 theatres, Holes should finish second this weekend. Holes has several things going for it. It’s a long weekend, it’s based on the popular and award-winning children’s book, and it has good reviews. Its reviews are the best for a wide release this weekend, with over two thirds of the reviews positive. With a relatively low budget movie ($20 million for production and a little more than that for advertising) Holes should make Disney very happy, and it could make close to its production budget on opening weekend.

Battling for third place with Bulletproof Monk will be Malibu’s Most Wanted. Surprisingly, this spin-off from the Jamie Kennedy Experiment is getting better reviews than Bulletproof Monk. Although, that is not saying much as both are getting hammered by the critics.

The only other two movies released in more than a handful of theatres could both make it into the top ten. Chasing Papi is almost assured a spot in the top ten after finishing 5th on Wednesday. On the other hand, A Mighty Wind might not make it, but it should finish near the top of the Per Theatre Average chart.

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A Trio of New Movies Opens Today

2003-04-16

w movies open midweek. Bulletproof Monk opens in wide release, and is joined in limited release by A Mighty Wind and Chasing Papi.

Bulletproof Monk is Chow Yun-Fat’s first since 2000’s critical and box office success, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. But don’t expect Bulletproof Monk to match Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon’s success in either area. Reviews are very bad, current at a mere 22% but it will finish second to Anger Management almost by default.

The second widest opening today is for Chasing Papi, which is getting even worse reviews. In fact, not one of the 12 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes is positive. Opening is about 550 theatres, Chasing Papi will struggle to make the top ten.

The last film to open today is A Mighty Wind. The third collaboration between Christopher Guest and Eugene Levy, A Mighty Wind opens in 133 theatres. Since most of the regulars are back and the reviews are excellent, currently just shy of 90%, it should do even better business than their first two collaborations, (Best in Show and Waiting for Guffman) A place in top ten isn’t assured, but it is more than deserving.

Submitted by: C.