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Wednesday, November 25, 2009
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2004-11-08
Every week films get a second chance at success from the home market; or, in some cases, a first chance at success. Here is a list of wide releases, limited releases and a few from the growing TV on DVD section, including the nominees for the DVD Pick of the Week, which we'll get to in a second. This was a strange week, there was only one first run release, a few limited releases, several nearly re-releases complete with ads for upcoming movies and more than a couple really old movies mostly sold in sets. Even the best of the bunch is going to have a really narrow appeal, so instead of naming a Pick of the Week, I'll name the best of each group. Best Limited Release: Ju-On: The Grudge - Buy from Amazon. Best Ad for A Sequel: Bridget Jones's Diary - Collector's Series - Buy from Amazon. Best Box Set Containing Movies Made Before I was Born: Fritz Lang Epic Collection - Buy from Amazon.
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2003-10-29
viously that MGM had cancelled the planned James Bond spin-off Jinx, which would have starred Halle Berry. And the Oscar winning actress is reportedly furious over this decision. It's not hard to see why she is mad; Jinx was the first of a planned franchise and had a movie pedigree most projects can never hope to match. Even if the movie didn't work and the character couldn't pull off a movie on her own it would still make $40 million for an opening weekend, $100 million domestically, better than that internationally and home market sales enough to push total revenue past $300 million. For a good example of this, see Lara Croft: Tomb Raider's performance. And that's if it didn't work, if it did work revenues could be much higher with many sequels to come.
What makes the decision even more unusual is the reason given, or lack of reason given. The producers were simply told to stop work on the movie. And it's not like MGM has a great track record when it comes to box office hits recently. Since Die Another Day was released and made $400 million worldwide, MGM has released more than a dozen films. And with the exception of two relatively low budget kids' movies (Agent Cody Banks and Good Boy!) and the sequel Legally Blonde 2, none have done well enough to show a profit, even by the time the initial home market is considered.
This isn't the first time this year MGM has made a seemingly foolhardy decision. They previously lost the director to Agent Cody Banks 2 over budget concerns which amounted to only a few million dollars. It's not surprising that MGM reported a loss of $32 million for the third quarter.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-08-15
movies opening wide this week, and with such a crowded market at least two will bomb. And considering the dubious quality of the release, they could all fail to make much of an impact. With so many new openings I'm going to profile them first and then deal with the rest of the top five after.
Freddy vs. Jason - Ten years too late. The Friday the 13th and Nightmare on Elm Street franchises are some of the longest lasting with a combines 17 films between them. But despite this they have less than $450 million domestic box office. That's less than Austin Powers has made in just 3 movies. Predictions for this movie go as high as $30 million, but that's more 10 of the previous films earned in their entire run. And the people who grew up with the franchises have grown up themselves and are unlikely to see another slasher movie. Reviews are about what you would expect, 33% overall and about half that for the cream of the crop. Look for about $15 million this weekend and about $35 million overall.
Uptown Girls - MGM misses again. This is the eighth movie released by MGM/UA this year, and so far only one has beaten expectations (Agent Cody Banks) and one other will be profitable (Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde.) Normally I'd give this movie an extra boost given it's target audience, but this year there has been several movies aimed at similar audiences from What a Girl Wants to The Lizzie McGuire Movie to the more recent How to Deal and Freaky Friday. Unfortunately for MGM, reviews are closer to How to Deal than Freaky Friday. And so will the box office. $10 million this week, but with better legs it could top Freddy vs. Jason's $35 million.
Open Range - The Best reviewed wide release of the week. In fact, its score of 77% is higher than the other three movies combined. Too bad it is also the smallest release of the four opening in just over 2000 theatres. Recently Kevin Costner movies haven't performed well at the box office, and chances are good reviews won't save this one. $8 million opening weekend and good word of mouth will be its only hope.
Grind - Worse reviews that Gigli? As I'm writing this Grind is currently sitting at only 8% positive, which's the same score as Gigli. However, even Gigli had one cream of the crop reviewer give it a positive review, the same can't be said for Grind. The only thing going for this movie is it is relatively unknown, so at least there's no negative buzz surrounding it. $5 million opening weekend before dropping out of theatres by September.
If I lived in Cleveland I'd be checking out American Splendor this weekend. Since I don't I'll see if any of the local theatres are playing Passionada. If not, well, I've got a pretty good DVD collection I could dip into.
Now on to the holdovers.
Repeating at top spot will be S.W.A.T., not due to its quality, just because there's so little competition this week. It will stop roughly 55%, but that still leaves $16 million, good enough for first place.
Freaky Friday will drop one spot to land in third. A weekend total of $14 million will raise its run to nearly $60 million. More than it cost to make and advertise.
Making one more appearance in the top 5 will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. It's just $100,000 from beating Bruce Almighty for third place this year. It is starting to slow down and the race for 2nd place is becoming more interesting. $9 million this weekend will leave it just short of the $250 million mark.
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2003-07-14
ing us more than a few surprises, but so far most have not been pleasant. This week, surprisingly, both new movies opened above expectations and finished first and second at the box office. Overall, the box office hit $144 million, up nearly 6% from last week, and 0.43% from last year.
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl not only finished first this weekend, but also did it with better than expected numbers. $46.6 million this weekend and $70.6 million since it opened is great news. However, it is unknown whether is can withstand the second weekend which has killed most movies this year. Solid reviews should help, but it's too early to tell, especially the way this year is going.
More than doubling my prediction was The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen. Granted, my prediction was incredible low and $23.1 million is still not enough considering the film's production and advertising budgets. Review for The League are, in a word, aweful so expect a large drop-off for next weekend.
The fact that Terminator 3 didn’t drop 60% at the box office is a bit of good news given the most recent history. However, a second week draw of only $19.5 million is not what the studio was hoping for and could be the final push for Arnold Schwarzenegger needed to join politics.
Dropping to fourth was Legally blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde with $12 million. It's second week drop-off of 45.86% was just one third of one percent higher than the original's. Nevertheless, I doubt Legally Blonde 2 will have the same legs as the first.
With its $8.5 million, not only did Finding Nemo beat Home Alone this weekend, it also beat The Empire Strikes Back. It is now in 16th place on the All-Time chart. By the end of next weekend, Finding Nemo should pass $300 million.
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2003-07-11
to be a disappointing year at the box office. What is needed is a surprise hit to get people back into the theatres. And this weekend could give us that hit. This weekend could also give us the biggest bomb of the year.
After solidly beating predictions on Wednesday and maintaining strong numbers on Thursday, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl will easily finish first and do better than first predicted. On the negative side, since I published my predictions on Wednesday, its reviews have dropped from a high of 87% positive to 79%. This is still above all but a handful of movies this year. Again, I have a hard time believing Pirates of the Caribbean will beat Terminator 3. In its first two days, Pirates of the Caribbean has made just under $24 million. In its first two days, (not counting Tuesday's preview) T3 made just over $24 million. However, T3's Thursday numbers were helped out by the July 4th Holiday. Then again, Pirates of the Caribbean won't have a holiday to help it's weekend numbers. All in all, $42 million is the target for the movie this weekend, but good word of mouth could propel it past T3 and closer to $50 million.
In a summer of huge opening and fast drops, Terminator 3 hopes to buck that trend. However, its mid-week numbers have not been as strong as they needed to be. It is looking like it will lose nearly exactly 50%, dropping to $22 million. The saddest thing about it, is in this day and age that could be considered a strong performance.
Third place is another sequel, Legally blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde, which is holding up better than T3. Thursday's box office was only 25% below T3. $14 million in its second week is a little better drop-off than the original's and could lead to a higher total box office.
The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen has unmitigated disaster written all over it. Which is terrible to see, cause the Comic series it was loosely based on is excellent indeed. Changes were made to, 'improve marketability' and to satisfy star's egos and what you have left is, simply put, a mess. Unlike Pirates of the Caribbean, which was one of the best reviews movies of the year, The League is getting some of the worst. They are currently at only 18%, and much lower for the Cream of the Crop. This could be a disaster of The Avengers proportions. $10 million this week, $3 to $4 million next week, out of the top ten the week after.
Rounding out the top five is Finding Nemo. So far, every week Finding Nemo has hit some milestone, beat some record, etc. This week it's passing Home Alone into 17th place on the All-Time chart. Ok, it's not much, but it’s something. $8 million at the box office, and barring a complete collapse by either Legally Blonde 2 or the newcomer Johnny English, it will be it's last appearance in the top five. Seven weeks in the top five is very impression for the New Marketplace. (More on the New Marketplace later.)
Submitted by: C.
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2003-07-07
w the release of 3 new movies, none of which were able to match analysts’ predictions. In fact, early numbers show the total box office was down approximately 15% from last year. Granted, there is a definite correlation between where in the week July 4th lands and how the box office performs. The last time July 4th landed on the Friday was in 1997. And this year’s box office was up nearly 10% in comparison, but the average ticket price is up over 30%.
Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines easy won the weekend, and beat Arnold Schwarzenegger’s previous best opening (Batman & Robin.) But even still, its weekend box office of $44.0 million and 5-day total of $72.3 million is seen as a disappointment, especially when the estimated $200 million production budget is taken into account. But there is good news on the horizon, reviews are very strong and that could help it in the long run. Also, internationally this movie should perform much better than it will domestically.
With a budget less than one quarter of T3, Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde earned a little more than half its box office, $22.2 million, to finish in second place. This sequel has already taken in $39.6 million in just 5 days, however, poor reviews and sharper than expected drop-offs will most likely stop it from reaching the original’s final box office.
Dropping faster than even the most cynical analyst had predicted, Charlie’s Angels 2 could only manage $14.0 million and third place. Its drop of 62.8% would have been a record earlier in the year, but both The Hulk and 2 Fast 2 Furious have done worse. Not only is the original’s total of $125 million out of the question, $100 million is now a long shot.
In fourth place is our first, and only, good news in the top five. Finding Nemo pulled in $11.1 million to top The Matrix Reloaded to become the highest grossing movie of 2003. However, from now on milestones will be a little harder to come by and won’t be the weekly occurrence they’ve been in the past.
The Hulk’s third week performance was neatly in-line with predictions. $8.2 million, or just a 56% drop. It will be interesting to see how well this movie plays overseas and at the home market. But for now it could be considered the biggest disappointment of the summer.
Combining traditional cell animation with computer coloring and some computer animation has not been very successful. Both Titan A.E. and Treasure Planet failed to live up to expectations. And now you can add Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas to that list. It could only scrape together $6.9 million for the weekend and more than $10 million for its 5-day release, all on a budget estimated at $60 - $80 million.
Also of note, 28 Days Later performed admirably with $6.0 million. Total domestic box office is just over $20 million and could be enough to make a profit for the studio, (depending on their exact share of the box office, which is not known at this time.) It is just another example of how some of the most successful movies released this year were also some of the less expensive.
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2003-07-04
dnesday’s and Thursday’s numbers, this situation this weekend is much clearer. And all three of the new movies have had their estimates reduced.
Coming in first this weekend will be Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, but not with the numbers the studio was hoping for. $12.4 on Wednesday was significantly below initial predictions. It was also below current July 4th record holder, Men in Black II. However, Terminator 3’s Wednesday to Thursday drop-off was much better, (just 4.43% compared to 11.32%) and Terminator 3’s reviews are also much better, (71% to 38%.) Terminator could come from behind to earn the $52.2 million needed take the record, but it will be very close.
In comparison, Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde beat estimates, albeit by just $147 thousand, but then dropped farther on Thursday than expected. With the two factors almost balancing each other out, it should fall just shy of the original prediction with $27 million.
The first of the holdovers, coming in third will be Charlie’s Angels 2. Given the sequel effect, recent history and poor word of mouth, this movie is almost guaranteed to lose more than 50% this weekend. And with direct competition in both the action genre and the female demographic, this movie will lose much more. We’re not talking a Hulk like collapse, but $15 million is still a big drop.
In a summer dominated by huge drop-offs, Finding Nemo has been one of the few exceptions. It continues to do strongly and is set for $10 million in its sixth weekend of release. That will not only give it top spot for computer animated movies, it should also give it the overall lead for 2003, passing The Matrix Reloaded.
Rounding out the top five is The Hulk, which is continuing its downward spiral. Granted, this week it will only drop a little more than 50% to $8 million, not the 70% drop that happened last weekend. Even with this decline, there still is talk of a sequel. (Although a sequel would probably do much better. After all, the first Hulk comic book series was cancelled after 6 issues.)
Doing much worse than analysts predictions was Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas, which managed only $1.5 million on Wednesday. It did improve on Thursday, but not enough to get much more than half the original prediction of $14 million. Traditional cell animation was in trouble before this, and since Sinbad will only get a little more than $10 million after Sunday, studios could drastically cut back on future productions.
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2003-07-02
onight to take advantage of the July 4th long weekend. And despite each of them having a distinct audience, they are entering a crowded market and at least one of them will be squeezed out.
The seemingly never-ending parade of high profile, high expectation blockbusters continue with Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines. Since May almost every week another blockbuster hits the screen, and for the most part they’ve lived up to box office expectations, for at least at week. Judging how well this one will do it a bit tricky. While this has the sequel hype to help the first weekend, it also has to deal with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s recent slump. But after factoring in all the variables, including impressive reviews, I’m confident it will make $20 million today, and $61 million this weekend. A record for both July 4th and Arnold Schwarzenegger. Its long-term success is still up in the air, but it could beat its predecessor.
Another sequel opening today is Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde. The original was a surprise hit for MGM studios in 2001, and they are hopefully it the sequel will build on that success. And for the sake of the studio, it better. So far in 2003, MGM/UA as only had one hit (Agent Cody Banks) in seven tries. By the end of the long weekend, Legally Blonde 2 could match Agent Cody Banks’ Box Office Total, but I think that’s a little optimistic. Reviews are very weak when compared to the original, but on par with Reese Witherspoon’s biggest hit, Sweet Home Alabama. $9 million today, and another $29 million on the weekend, with $100 million overall the target.
Traditional animation has been in quite a slump since Pixar hit the scene. Last year, only one cell-animated movie made more than $100 million at the box office, and the year before that, none did. And Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas doesn’t look like it will buck the trend. Not that the reviews are bad, but at just above 50% they certainly are not good. Combined with the over-crowded market and $6 million today and $14 million on the weekend could be too optimistic.
Predictions for holdovers will be posted on Friday.
Submitted by:
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2003-07-02
k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.
Bad Boys II
Current Content: Issue 3, which used to deal with the original Bad Boys, was added, again. But this time it has Bad Boys II info. Specifically, an interview with the costume designer Carol Rasmey (to be added later), the Finesse TV Spot, Jay-Z music video, six more images and two more wallpapers and Buddy Icons. Issue #4 was also added, and along with the standard 6 images and 2 wallpapers and Buddy Icons, this issue had production notes and two more TV Spots, (Time Out and We’re Going In.) Overall this site is coming together nicely.
Envy
Current Content: The site launched this week, but it’s set up to look like an ad for VaPOOrize. You can watch the Infomercial, or the Flash animated add, and there’s even a free giveaway marked coming soon. Of the usual suspects, only the movie trailer is there.
Freddy vs. Jason
Current Content: They’ve completely redone the format and the new format is a little too bright. Besides the new format there was some new content added, namely a timeline for both franchises and a tale of the tape.
Hidalgo
Current Content: This site just opened and so far there’s just a flash intro and the synopsis and trailer.
The Incredibles
Current Content: Just the logo and the teaser trailer. I’ve must have watched the trailer a hundred times and I still can’t figure out who’s doing the voices.
Johnny English
Current Content: Already a hit overseas, the North American version of the site just launched. And it’s an excellent site. There’s a section on the movie that has a lot information, trailer, cast and crew bios, synopsis, image gallery, production notes, etc. But most of the content is elsewhere. A section on MI-5 contains an interaction dossier, (including a very well done picture of John Malkovich as a naughty nurse), demonstration on some of the latest gadgets, surveillance footage of Johnny English, more than a dozen audio clips from the movie, 2 animated E-cards, a screensaver and 2 wallpapers. Then there are three games the plays as well. Combined with the good segues and sound FX, this site definitely earned the extravagant Weekly Website Awards.
The Last Samurai
Current Content: The third section is up, this time about warriors … sort of. Doesn’t seem to fit well with the rest of the site, and certainly isn’t as compelling as the last addition on the Samurai code.
Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde
Current Content: First of all, “sponsored by a genuine natural beauty, Barbie©.” That is so wrong on so many levels. This is an unusual site with only a little of what is normally found. There is a trailer and a very short synopsis, but no cast and crew bios, for instance. In fact, the only other content that’s strictly movie related is the photo gallery and the character bios. What it does have is a lot of information to help you live like Elle. Elle-strology, Sty-Elle, Elle-ssentials, Elle cetera. There’s also a brief history of Blondes and a web board. There are, however, no animated segues and no sounds after the intro. This definitely hurts the overall effect.
Masked and Anonymous
Current Content: This movie has a huge cast of very famous people, and the site wisely focuses a lot of attention on them. There’s page after page of information: Cast and crew bios, production notes, two essays, etc. The amount of multimedia is limited to the trailer and a couple of songs. But the text is so well written that no more is needed.
Mona Lisa Smile
Current Content: Typical Sony placeholder site. Right now, it has just the trailer but that should change.
Sharkaslayer
Current Content: The movie is still more than a year away, so there’s very little on the site. Just the cast and the character they play. Although, the way they are introduced is well done.
Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas
Current Content: With just as few days before the movie opens, the site added a couple of new games and eight clips from the movie.
S.W.A.T.
Current Content: The flash site opened this week and there’s a lot to it. Trailer, synopsis, cast and crew bios (coming soon), games, music, Animated E-cards called Veepers (doesn’t work with Mozilla), screensavers, wallpaper, etc. There is also a lot of information on the real world S.W.A.T. forces; this included history, training and equipment. The music is quite good for this site, the clip is very long so it doesn’t get repetitive. However, the looping is not as well done as it could be. Transitions are also done well, and the sound effects add to the experience without overwhelming it.
Terminator 3
Current Content: This site has more multimedia content than any other I’ve reviewed. It was overwhelming at times. The information about the movie was well done; trailer, synopsis, cast and crew bios, production notes, it’s all there. But when in came to images and such, they could have trimmed it down. For instance, there are more than 200 wallpapers to choose from, more than 90% of them user created. It seemed to dilute the effectiveness of the official content. Which is too bad, cause this is an otherwise good site.
Submitted by:
2003-06-25
ttp://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2003/MTRX2.php>Matrix Reloaded made its sensational debut in May, no one could really tell how far THIS rabbit hole would go.
But it soon became clear that Reloaded was a big thing, Critics say it has dropped off to quickly in the US. Nonsense,
reloaded has stuck in the top ten for 40 days. Thats a Long time for any flick to stay in that reigon, and its takings offshores are still strong despite the same stiff competition that knocked it off the US top rolling out across the world. But reloaded is set to stop at around 720-740 Million, depending on US performance in the months to come. "2 Fast 2 Furious" furiously smashed in at number one in the uk after extensive advertising. It took $2.7 Million($4.5 Million) for its first weekend, but Reloaded only took 660k. But with a healthy $30 Million ($50.5 Million) from the UK alone in its bank, And no sign of slipping to let the nearest rival, Identity, overtake it, Reloaded should stay in the top three for a few weeks yet.
But Identity has started out strong, knocking Anger Management down to fourth. The movie has opened to brilliant reviews and good buzz, being likened to intellegent hits like "The Usual Suspects" it did take a fairly healthy $51 Million in the us, enough to cover its budget.
But the main competition for all, sure to crush the other grosses, its the mega-hyped and Uber advertised "Bruce Almighty" which hits cinemas this friday in the UK. With three weeks of pre-release advertising under its belt, Bruce is sure to demolish the box office competition, In previews alone in limited theartres this weekend, it took an astonishing $1.8 Million($2.9 Million).
The hit comedy looks like its legs will be challenged too, with Charlies Angels 2 making its debut the week after Bruce's release, it will just show how Mighty he is. One things a dead cert, 2 Fast wont be Furious enough to fight of Bruce and The Angels, its expected to drop to fourth when Bruce is released. Reloaded could make big dropoffs, but due to a surprisingly strong UK support base, its likely to fluctuate between 2-4th positions for a while.
Elsewhere on the UK Charts, Igby Goes Down, the "Indie-Teen Movie Of The Year" rose a place, knocking X-2 down to 11th while it nestled into the top ten. And John Travolta's "Basic" debuted with an embarrasing £248k ($412k) Weekend, while a good figure for UK, the number was much lower than the millions expected, but the critics trashed the return of travolta, "Connie Nielsen is like a walking acting folio, she morphs her accent more than she blinks, and Travolta is totally outshone by Jackson"
Bringing Down The House slipped three places in the charts. The Queen Latifah hit had not mirrored the huge success it enjoyed in the US, it is expected to close in the UK at around $5 Million.($8.3 Million)
British Classical Diva, Charlotte Church's acting debut, "I'll Be There" is also opening soon, but reviews have been mixed, one speaking on Church-"Is worse than Madonna and makes you realise Britney wasnt that bad in Crossroads" and another on the same subject "Church is up to the role, it was written with her personality in mind, so the acting wasnt challenging, and it shows"
Forthcoming UK Releases Summer 2003
Sure Hits:
Bruce Almighty, Charlies Angels 2: Full Throttle, T3: Rise of The Machines, Legally Blonde 2*, Tomb Raider 2
Maybes:
The Extraordinary Leauge Of Gentlemen, Hollywood Homicide, Bad Boys II, The Hulk, Spy Kids 3D
Report Researched and Writ
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