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Monday, November 23, 2009
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2004-05-31
Every week films get a second chance at success from the home market; or, in some cases, a first chance at success. This was a hugely busy week for DVD releases. Taking a look at the list of releases we find almost 700 DVDs, unfortunately, it's mostly a case of quantity not quality. There are a LOT of re-releases coming out this week, many related to upcoming films. However, there is not one release that shouts Pick of the Week, so I didn't choose one. But there are so many DVD being released that there should be at least one to fit everyone's tastes.
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2004-01-25
With the awards ceremony only hours away, here's one last look at the theatrical nominations for tonight's 61st annual Golden Globes awards.
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2003-12-30
In just a dozen days of release, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King has already accumulated nearly half a billion dollars. And it is still going strong. This week it commanded $84 million from 38 markets, including $12.5 million from both the U.K. and Germany. It already has more than half the total box office of both its predecessors, and it has yet to open in major markets like Japan and Italy. Internationally, Return of the King has pulled in $268 million, just behind fourth place The Matrix Revolutions for the year and 33rd all time. Worldwide, it has $490 million and that's good enough for fourth for the year and 32nd place all-time. By next week, it will be in the top 20 in both.
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2003-10-20
to October, the last two weekends have shown amazing growth especially when compared to last year. Overall the box office was up 4.5% from last week and an amazing 25% from last year.
The Texas Chainsaw Massacre just missed becoming the second biggest opener in October as its $28.1 million was $1 million less than Sunday's estimates. Reviews for the film also suffered dropping to just 36% positive. With poor reviews, a weak internal multiplier, fanboy effect and the horrow genre The Texas Chainsaw Massacre will have trouble hitting $70 million. However, it only cost $13 million to make and even with an advertising budget closer to $30 million, this movie will make a profit during it's domestic run. Needless to say, there is a sequel in the works. But given how the sequels to the original performed, this is probably not a good idea.
Kill Bill: Volume 1 held up better than expected to walk away with $12.4 million and a second place finish. That's a drop of just 43.8%, not a bad result normally, and very good considering the rest of the year.
It turns out The Runaway Jury won't quite turnaround John Grisham Hollywood career. Its opening weekend of just $12.1 million was weak, and with reviews that were good, but not great, it probably won't have the legs to succeed.
The School of Rock added another $11.0 million to push its total past $50 million. It is now tracking ahead of Freaky Friday's weekend numbers, but with school kids in school its weekday numbers are really dragging it down.
Helped by great reviews, including 100% from the cream of the crop, Mystic River landed in fifth place with $10.4 million. But with a per theatre average of just $7,120 and the MPAA screener ban, that's probably not enough to make it a serious Oscar contender.
After doing well in its native country of Ireland, Veronica Guerin came crashing down this week. Opening in less than 500 theatres, it was only about to make $611 thousand or roughly $1300 per theatre. That was much lower than expect, and even the mediocre reviews don't explain it.
As expected, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl cross $300 million on Friday. It now sits behind Star Wars: Attack of the Clones on both the domestic and worldwide charts.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-10-13
ekend for new releases with four movies opening wide. New releases generally performed above expectations, but not by a large margin. The overall box office was up by 19% from last week but a mere 1.8% from last year. The year to year box office increase was much smaller that the increase in average ticket prices.
Kill Bill: Volume 1 had by far the best opening for a Quentin Tarantino movie at $22.1 million. By the end of the weekend, reviews were at the same level as Jackie Brown, and if its legs are the same it will get close to $100 million. If so, expect a re-release when Volume 2's release date nears to push it over that milestone.
As expected, School of Rock's box office bounced back after weak weekday numbers. In fact, it bounced back so well that it took second place with $15.5 million. That represents just a 21.1% drop, much better than fellow surprise hit Freaky Friday. But without the strong summer weekdays, School of Rock won't have the same shot at $100 million.
When I first predicted Good Boy! would open with $8 million it was only expected to open in 2500 theatres when in fact it opened in over 3200. So it is no surprise that the film beat expectations with $13.1 million. On the other hand, reviews dropped over the weekend finishing with just 47% positive.
Going the opposite direction was Intolerable Cruelty which failed to match expectations with just $12.5 million for its opening weekend. The George Clooney and Catherine Zeta-Jones darkly romantic comedy did see an impressive improvement in its reviews with a final result of 80% positive. Still, it was the best opening for a Coen Brothers' movie and if it has the legs to match that pedigree, then the film will be profitable before the final box office is done.
Out of Time almost matched predictions with $8.6 million, a drop of 47%. Good for its genre, especially given how most movies have faired during their second weekend of release. But it is not good enough to help this movie become profitable before the home market.
The House of the Dead managed slightly more than predictions with $5.7 million. But given its genre and the fact that out of 13 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes not one was positive, don't expect it to earn more than $5.7 million for the rest of its run.
Lost in Translation slipped slightly faster than expected, but managed to stay in the top ten for one more week. Its $2.8 million raised its total to $18.1 million, impressive compared to its very humble production budget of $4 million. Focus Features should be happy even if no Oscar nominations are in the future.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-09-16
disastrous performance, this week we have three movies that can all be described as a success to one degree or another. This led to a huge increase of 28% from last weekend, and a more modest increase of 2.6% from last year, all of which can be explained with increased ticket prices.
Once Upon a Time in Mexico cost just $30 million to make, half the average cost of a Hollywood movie but more than four times the combines production budgets of the first two movies in the El Mariachi trilogy. So it would be difficult for it to be as profitable at the box office. However, in just one weekend Once Upon a Time in Mexico earned nearly as much as the first two movies earned in their entire run. $23.4 million compared to $27.5 million. With solid reviews it will easily pay for its production costs domestically, and make a profit internationally.
Almost perfectly matching predictions was Matchstick Men with $13.1 million. With a stronger internal multiplier than the other movies opening this week, and stronger reviews, Matchstick Men should have better legs at the box office as well. This could lead to a final tally near or even north of $50 million.
Also performing close to expectations was Cabin Fever, which made $8.6 million during its opening weekend. Reviews started out strong, but as the weekend went on they started to drop, however, they managed to hold on to the 60% positive needed for an overall positive result. It will be interesting to see how it performs over the coming weeks, but it is safe to say the studio is already impressed.
So far, Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star has had an interesting run. It started with an opening weekend win, albeit by the narrowest of margins, but then dropped to seventh place by Tuesday before finishing the week in sixth place. Normally, this will spell doom for a movie's chances in its second weekend. However, Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star climbed nearly 400% from Thursday to Friday and lost less than 25% in its second weekend with $5.0 million. Now I don't have the demographics for this movie, but the numbers suggest the average movie goer seeing Dickie Roberts is going to identify less with David Spade, and more with his adoptive brother and sister. Such a young audience is surprising but could be the saving grace for the movie.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl did make $4.5 million at the box office, more than predicted, but finished one spot lower in fifth place. It is now in 18th on the All Time chart and should make it to 17th place after next weekend, overtaking The Empire Strikes Back.
Freaky Friday may not have made it into the top five, but it did earn $4 million this weekend to break the $100 million barrier. A very surprising result, especially when compared to its budget.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-09-12
ks since Open Range opened to positive reviews. At that was just one movie in an otherwise bad week. To find more than one movie opening wide to positive reviews you would have to go as far back as May 30th when Finding Nemo and The Italian Job were released. This week, all three wide releases are getting favorable reviews (and so are many limited releases, but more on that later.)
As for the actual box office predictions for the weekend, that's a little more confusing. During the past week four different movies finished first in the dailies.
The final installment in Robert Rodriguez's El Mariachi trilogy, Once Upon a Time in Mexico, has the widest opening this week and should finish first at the box office. The movie has a production budget more than four times the first two combined, but that's only $30 million (half what the average Hollywood movie costs.) Robert Rodriguez is a master of getting the most bang for his buck and a $20 million opening will be his reward. And with overall positive reviews it will easily have the legs to make a healthy profit for the studio.
From 1996 - 1997 Nicolas Cage had 3 $100 million dollar movies in a row, since then only one of his next 10 releases was able to cross that barrier. It's doubtful that Matchstick Men will be able to do that, but is should open to the tune of $13 million. And with it's reviews, which are overwhelmingly positive, should help him regain some his box office and critical clout lost in recent years.
The third wide release should open in third place. Cabin Fever, which opens in only a little more than 2000 theatres, should have similar box office results as 28 Days Later. Cabin Fever has a wider release, but weaker reviews and is opening at a weaker time of the year. An opening of $8 million and better legs than the genre usually allows will spell profit for the studio on this release.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl spent the mid-week in first or second place and looks to translate that into another top five finish this weekend. Another $4 million will take its domestic total past Home Alone and into 18th place on the all time chart.
In fifth place will be another Disney release with legs, Freaky Friday. With $3 million this weekend, it will be the 21st movie to make $100 million this year. However, unless Once Upon a Time in Mexico surprises it will be the last movie to do so till November when The Matrix Revolutions is released.
One movie you didn't see in the top five was Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star. Despite finishing first last weekend, it had dropped to seventh by Tuesday and with three wide releases this week it's chances of sticking around the top five this week are minimal. And with even more movies opening next weekend, it should drop out of the top ten and that would tie a record.
There are also several limited releases opening this week: Lost in Translation, Dummy, Millennium Actress, Warrior of Light, So Close and all are getting positive reviews. Also, long time Per Theatre Average charter American Splendor expands into nearly 200 more theatres this weekend.
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2003-09-08
tarted much slower than predicted. Not only did the two new movies fail to deliver at the box office (or critically), none of the holdovers managed to perform well either. Not only was the weekend the weakest of the year so far, it was arguably the weakest in the past several years. The total box office was down 35% from last week and 7% from last year.
Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star was in a close battle to win top spot at the box office this week. It did come in a bit lower than expected with only $6.7 million, and with very poor reviews don't expect much more than that for the rest of its run. On the positive side, with a production budget believed to be under $20 million it could show a profit from the home market.
While a drop of 57% is massive no matter how you look at it, it wasn't as massive as predicted. Combined with the poor showing of the rest of the holdovers, that led to Jeepers Creepers 2 dropping only one spot to second place with $6.6 million.
With the best drop-off in the top five, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl climbed two places into the top three. Its 9th weekend grab of $5.3 million was also enough to vault it over The Matrix Reloaded into second place for the year and 19th on the all time chart.
Still one weekend away from the coveted $100 million club, Freaky Friday earned another $5.0 million at the box office.
S.W.A.T. managed one last weekend in the top five adding another $4.6 million to its total.
Both the early reviews and the box office for The Order were a little better than expected. Reviews were at one time at 28% positive, nothing to brag about, but not the complete disaster. However, they have since come down and are now at 10% including 0% from the Cream of the Crop. And its opening weekend take of $4.4 million is better than expected. But when compared to an estimated production budget of $35 million, a few hundred thousand more at the box office is essentially meaningless.
American Wedding dropped out of the top ten this week, but it was able to cross the $100 million mark. That's enough to cover the production budget and a bit of the advertising. Add in its international run, which has barely started, and you have a profitable performance.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-09-05
you than The Labor Day long weekend is the slowest long weekend of the year. The rest of September is traditionally the slowest time of the year. And this year it looks to break no traditions with only two marginal releases.
The box office should be led by Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star, the latest David Spade movie. Reviews for Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star are almost twice as good as Spade's previous movie, Joe Dirt, but at 19% that's not much praise. Joe Dirt made $8 million during its opening weekend, but it opening in several hundred more theatres and during a more lucrative time at the box office. Better reviews and higher ticket prices will leave Dickie Roberts with the same opening weekend.
Many families saw movies last Monday to celebrate back to school, ok, the parents were celebrating while the children were mourning. I think a significant number will also go to movies this weekend as a treat for the children who survived the first week. This should help Freaky Friday maintain most of its box office. $6.5 million is good, but not quite good enough to cross $100 million this week.
Poor reviews, sequel effect, horror genre, post long weekend and the general ennui of 2003 will lead to a massive drop at the box office for Jeepers Creepers 2. Look for a drop just north of 60% for a weekend box office of $6 million.
Very few movies have shown real legs at the box office this year. So far this year's champion has to be Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl which, if my calculations are correct, will move up a spot on the charts for a second week in a row. Also, the $5.5 million earned will push it past The Matrix Reloaded into second place for the year.
Spending its last week in the top five will be Open Range. Another $5.0 million will increase its total past $50 million in four weeks. That may not seem like much compared to the $300 million Pirates of the Caribbean is shooting for, but it's the best Kevin Costner effort since Waterworld.
And that leads us to the second new release of the week, The Order. How bad are the prospects for The Order? Firstly, it wasn't screened for reviewers and that's never a good sign. Secondly, it has been bounced around to no less than four release dates, also not a good sign. And it underwent a name change after a disastrous preview screening in 2002. And now it has been dumped during the weakest time of the year in fewer than 2000 theatres. An opening weekend of only $4 million and a quick exit from theatres is the most likely result.
On a more positive note, American Wedding should break through the $100 million barrier this weekend. If it does it will be the 20th movie to do so this year, with Freaky Friday becoming 21st just a few days later. It's almost a lock that 2003 will set the record for most $100 million movies in a single year. With a couple of surprises we may even see 30 $100 million movies this year.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-09-03
r a long weekend, this Labor Day long weekend broke records for biggest opening weekend and highest total box office. It's no surprise that the three day total is up, albeit only 0.8% from last weekend, and the four day total is up approximately 9% from last year.
Jeepers Creepers 2 broke the record for best Labor Day weekend, a record that the original set in 2001. Despite reviews that were much worse than the original, Jeepers Creepers 2 made $15.3 million for the 3 day weekend and $18.4 million total.
As predicted, Freaky Friday was able to climb back into second place. The addition $9.2 million / $12.6 million puts the Disney remake roughly one week away from $100 million.
The next three movies were very close. In fact, their standing at the box office changes depending on if you count Monday or not.
S.W.A.T. did crack the $100 million mark this week, and did it with a better than expected $8.3 million / $10.8 million. That was good for 3rd / 4th depending on how many days you count.
Earning almost exactly what it was predicted to, Open Range nevertheless finished one place lower for the three day weekend and two places lower for the four day weekend. With a final tally of $8.1 million / $10.7 million it was just a rounding error behind S.W.A.T.
It seems than Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl benefited the most from the long weekend as its box office was up the most out of the top five (or the top ten for that matter.) Its $8 million for the 3 day weekend was good enough for fifth place. But add in Monday's figure and the total of $10.8 put it into third place.
And now for an update on the three other movies are trying for the $100 million club this weekend.
Charlie's Angels: Full throttle lost almost two thirds of its box office from last weekend, but that was still more than enough.
The Italian Job's expansion helped more than expected as the movie rose to 12th place with $3 million. Almost $1 million more than it needed to cross $100 million.
Seabiscuit needed the most money at the box office to make it. It also earned the most, hitting $100 million on Sunday.
Next on the list to cross $100 million? As I've already mentioned, Freaky Friday could do it next weekend, but American Wedding will probably beat it to that goal.
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2003-08-29
Labor Day long weekend is the slowest long weekend of the year. And this year looks to be no exception. Only one new movie is opening, however, The Italian Job is expanding to over 1900 theatres in a push to reach the $100 million milestone. Like last week, expect limited releases to get a boost from weak wide releases.
Finishing first will be no problem for Jeepers Creepers 2, the real question is whether it will beat the original. Earlier this summer it would have been a forgone conclusion that the sequel would open bigger, and drop faster, than the original. But lately that hasn't always been the case. Reviews for Jeepers Creepers 2 are bad, currently a little more than half what the original got. Added in sequel burn out and you get $13 million Friday to Sunday and $16 for the long weekend.
I know Freaky Friday finished fourth last week, but by Thursday it had risen to 2nd place. Add in the family friendly nature and this movie should benefit the most from the Labor Day long weekend. $8 million for Friday to Sunday and $10 million overall.
Coming in third for the third week in a row will be Open Range. Targeted at a more mature audience, this movie will also benefit more from the long weekend than other movies coming in virtual tie with Freaky Friday. $8 million for Friday to Sunday and $10 million overall.
S.W.A.T. has been in first place on the daily charts since Wednesday, but several other movies have been gaining on it during the week. So it will drop to fourth for the weekend, but the $7 million / $9 million it will earn will be enough to push it over the $100 million mark.
Returning to the top five after two weeks at number 6 is Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. At the beginning of the week it was more than $500 thousand out of top spot, but by Thursday it was only a little more than $100 thousand and comfortably in the top five. And even without a long weekend Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the black Peal had held up well at the box office. So expect it to do even better this weekend. $6 million Friday to Sunday and $8 million over the long weekend.
Three other movies are trying for the $100 million club this weekend.
After last weekend, Charlie's Angels: Full throttle had only $500,000 to reach the milestone, and even battle mid-week numbers would have cut that in half by Thursday. After taking into account the drop of 40% of its theatre count this weekend it should still make the grade by Monday.
The Italian Job is just a little more than $3 million away and this weekend it expands to over 1900 theatres. That gives it an outside shot at $100 million this weekend, but even if it just cuts the gap in half it should reach it by the end of next weekend.
Lastly, Seabiscuit has made more than $95 million, including more than $6 million last weekend. Giving its strong legs and the long weekend it has a very good chance at $100 million by Monday as well.
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2003-08-26
ses this week did significantly worse than expected, however, the holdovers didn't pick up the slack as they usually do. This led to a massive 31.5% drop from last weekend but a 12.2% increase from last year. An interesting note, the top four films this week remained in the same order as they did last weekend. I don't know when that last happened.
While Freddy vs. Jason did finish first, that's a small bit of good news in an otherwise terrible second week performance. It was only able to grab $13.2 million, well below most predictions, which resulting in a 64% drop-off. The biggest second week drop off for a number one movie since The Hulk, and second largest such drop overall. Next weekend when the similarly targeted movie Jeepers Creepers 2 opens could spell an even worse result.
Second place again went to S.W.A.T. with $10.6 million. $100 million by next week is the goal and there's talk of a new TV spin-off in the works.
Just missing predictions by a rounding error was Open Range which added $9.5 million to it's total. Unfortunately, this genre usually doesn't do well internationally and the studio will most likely have to wait till the home market to see a profit.
Freaky Friday was the only movie to outperform its predictions, albeit by only a few hundred thousand. The $9.3 million earned this week makes the movie very close to showing a profit after only 3 weeks of release.
The first of three new releases this week was The Medallion, which could only manage $8.1 million and fifth place at the box office. The Medallion had the best reviews of any wide release of the weekend, but at 20% it really doesn't mean much. Despite similar reviews and international performances as The Tuxedo this movie couldn't find an audience domestically. This probably means Jackie Chan needs to do something different in his next film. And Around the World in 80 Days does look different than the usual Jackie Chan movie.
Some analysts had My Boss's Daughter finish in the top five. However, not only did it miss the top five, like I predicted, it barely landed in the top 10. It could only grab $4.9 million in its opening weekend, which was only good enough for tenth place. It also had the lowest per theatre average in the top ten. This movie wasn't screened for the critics, and for good reason. My Boss's Daughter only managed a lowly 11% positive.
Getting the worst reveiws of the week was Marci X. This could be the movie that stops people from making fun of Gigli. That's how bad it did both at the box office and with the critics. It's apropos that I compared Marci X to Grind since Marci X finished in 17th place with less than $900 thousand and Grind finished 18th. Marci X earned less in its first weekend than Finding Nemo did in its 13th. Marci X's per theatre average for its first weekend was lower than Daddy Day Care's in its 16th weekend. This is a failure that should result in people being fired and careers coming to an end.
To update the box office of the movies I mentioned on Friday, Thirteen and American Splendor both did well enough to be featured on the top ten per theatre average chart. Step into Liquid and The Magdalene Sisters both saw significant increases in their box office and both should cross the $1 million mark mid-week while The Secret Lives of Dentists crossed that mark on Friday. And Passionada saw its per theatre average increase from last weekend.
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2003-08-22
ems to be little to get a movie fan interested this week. At least when it comes to wide releases.
It's almost a foregone conclusion that Freddy vs. Jason will finish first this week, just as much as it's a foregone conclusion that it will lose at least 50% at the box office. Just the genre alone would suggest that. Add in the Fanboy effect and sequelitis and the like and a drop of closer to 60% is likely. Mid-week numbers have been horrible; Freddy vs. Jason has lost more than 84% of its daily box office since last Friday. That's on par with The Hulk, which went on to lose nearly 70% at the box office during its second week. The one thing this movie has going for it is the complete lack of competition this week. This should help it grab $15 million this weekend.
The Medallion has already opened internationally and the numbers are average at best. It's currently tracking about 10% lower than The Tuxedo, and that performance should be similar stateside. Reviews are also on lower than The Tuxedo, in other words, bad. Really bad. Although most reviewers did comment on how special effects are replacing stunts in Jackie Chan's movies. (He's turning 50 next year, cut him some slack.) The Medallion should earn about $12 million this weekend.
In third place is S.W.A.T. This TV show turned movie didn't drop nearly as much as expected last weekend and should continue to show some legs. Not a lot mind you, but better than average for the summer. The $11 million is should grab this week will put it close to $90 million and it should cross $100 million by the end of next weekend.
Open Range added a few more theatres in its second week, but it's still not enough to crack the top ten theatre count this week. It will fair better at the box office coming in fourth with $10 million.
Rounding out the top five is Freaky Friday. $9 million for its third weekend is good news for this $26 million movie. $100 million total could be in the cards for Freaky Friday.
Just missing the top five will be My Boss's Daughter. When judging how well a movie will do one of the factors to consider is advertising. Not just how well is the advertising done, but does it even exist. In the case of My Boss's Daughter I've only seen a few ads on TV and it doesn't even have an official website. Earlier in the week it was expected to open in about 1200 theatres, but Dimension Films pushed to have it opening is a respectable 2200 theatres. This after being bounced around to no less than 4 release dates. Add in the fact that is wasn't screen for critics and $7 million opening weekend is about as good as it gets.
Doing even worse and just missing the top ten will be Marci X. A lot of things have been blamed for the soft summer this year from pirates to text messaging. But the real culprit is quality or the lack thereof. You can't tell me there aren't better scripts that haven't been made. Like the previous movie, Marci X wasn't screened for critics and advertising has been nearly non-existent. And with a release of just over 1200 theatres, this movie will probably do even worse than last week's loser Grind did.
But fret not brave reader. There is hope at the box office this weekend in the form of limited releases. Thirteen opened on Wednesday and if the reviews are correct it deserves to find an audience. And the reviews are even better for last week's winner of the per theatre box office, American Splendor (which expanded into 26 more theatres this week.) Other limited releases that should be worth checking out include Passionada, (reviews.) Step into Liquid, (reviews), The Secret Lives of Dentists, (reviews) and The Magdalene Sisters, (reviews.) It may take a little more effort to find a theatre showing these movies. But if enough people see them, then maybe Hollywood will make more high quality movies and fewer movies like Marci X.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-08-18
couple of surprises this week, and they were pleasant ones. This helped the box office rise by 4.9% from last week, and an amazing 32% from last year.
Beating practically all predictions, and not just mine, was Freddy vs. Jason. $36.4 million was not only double my prediction, it was higher than the total box office of all but one Friday the 13th movie and all but two Nightmare on Elm Street movie. Where were all these fans last year when Jason X bombed at the theatres? However, Freddy vs. Jason did have pretty bad reviews, although they were on par with the rest of the Nightmare and Friday the 13th series. Add in the genre, fanboy effect, sequelitis and your looking at a large drop next weekend. Oh, and before I get anymore more insulting e-mail on this topic please remember two things: 1.) Try and use actual words and proper grammar, when you say stuff like, 'u r stupid' it just makes me pity you. 2.) Try and be insulting. I hang out in ASVS so it takes a lot to offend me. Be creative, be witty, don't repeat, 'LOL' a dozen time and expect it to have an effect.
S.W.A.T. is holding onto its box office better than expected but it still dropped over 50% this weekend. 51.1% to be more precise leaving a figure of $18.1 million. A relatively average result.
Going back to the genre that made him a star, Kevin Costner did better than expected with Open Range. Buoyed by the best reviews of any wide release this week, it was able to earn $14.0 million this week.
Freaky Friday made just a fraction less than predicted at $13.4 million. It's probably just a couple weeks away from making Disney a profit.
Conversely, Uptown Girls made a fraction more than predicted at $11.3 million. However, reviews suggest future earnings will be hurt by word of mouth and MGM will most likely have to wait till the Ancillary market (Hotels, Airliners, Cruise Ships, etc.) before it sees a profit.
Over the weekend reviews for Grind improved all the way to 9% positive, just ahead of reviews for Gigli. However, its box office was actually worse at only $2.5 million. Grind's per theatre average was barely more than $1000, lower than Finding Nemo in its 12th weekend, and lower than Bend it Like Beckham in its 23rd weekend.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-08-15
movies opening wide this week, and with such a crowded market at least two will bomb. And considering the dubious quality of the release, they could all fail to make much of an impact. With so many new openings I'm going to profile them first and then deal with the rest of the top five after.
Freddy vs. Jason - Ten years too late. The Friday the 13th and Nightmare on Elm Street franchises are some of the longest lasting with a combines 17 films between them. But despite this they have less than $450 million domestic box office. That's less than Austin Powers has made in just 3 movies. Predictions for this movie go as high as $30 million, but that's more 10 of the previous films earned in their entire run. And the people who grew up with the franchises have grown up themselves and are unlikely to see another slasher movie. Reviews are about what you would expect, 33% overall and about half that for the cream of the crop. Look for about $15 million this weekend and about $35 million overall.
Uptown Girls - MGM misses again. This is the eighth movie released by MGM/UA this year, and so far only one has beaten expectations (Agent Cody Banks) and one other will be profitable (Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde.) Normally I'd give this movie an extra boost given it's target audience, but this year there has been several movies aimed at similar audiences from What a Girl Wants to The Lizzie McGuire Movie to the more recent How to Deal and Freaky Friday. Unfortunately for MGM, reviews are closer to How to Deal than Freaky Friday. And so will the box office. $10 million this week, but with better legs it could top Freddy vs. Jason's $35 million.
Open Range - The Best reviewed wide release of the week. In fact, its score of 77% is higher than the other three movies combined. Too bad it is also the smallest release of the four opening in just over 2000 theatres. Recently Kevin Costner movies haven't performed well at the box office, and chances are good reviews won't save this one. $8 million opening weekend and good word of mouth will be its only hope.
Grind - Worse reviews that Gigli? As I'm writing this Grind is currently sitting at only 8% positive, which's the same score as Gigli. However, even Gigli had one cream of the crop reviewer give it a positive review, the same can't be said for Grind. The only thing going for this movie is it is relatively unknown, so at least there's no negative buzz surrounding it. $5 million opening weekend before dropping out of theatres by September.
If I lived in Cleveland I'd be checking out American Splendor this weekend. Since I don't I'll see if any of the local theatres are playing Passionada. If not, well, I've got a pretty good DVD collection I could dip into.
Now on to the holdovers.
Repeating at top spot will be S.W.A.T., not due to its quality, just because there's so little competition this week. It will stop roughly 55%, but that still leaves $16 million, good enough for first place.
Freaky Friday will drop one spot to land in third. A weekend total of $14 million will raise its run to nearly $60 million. More than it cost to make and advertise.
Making one more appearance in the top 5 will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. It's just $100,000 from beating Bruce Almighty for third place this year. It is starting to slow down and the race for 2nd place is becoming more interesting. $9 million this weekend will leave it just short of the $250 million mark.
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2003-08-12
Friday's predictions, but the holdovers all fell faster than expected. This mixed result led the box office down 3.4% from last week and 2.3% from last year.
S.W.A.T. not only finished first, but did so with a much higher box office than predicted. An opening weekend of $37.1 million is pretty good for a movie budgeted at $70 million. However, weak reviews will probably mean its legs will be cut short. Still, if it does similar business internationally it should make a profit before it hits the home market.
Even after upping my prediction for Freaky Friday last Friday, it wasn't enough. The Disney remake earned an impressive $22.2 million on a production budget of just $26 million. (Although P&A budget could be more than the production budget.) Garnering some of the best reviews this summer, which was a bit of a surprise, and given its family friendly nature, this movie could have serious legs.
Dropping more than expected, but better than average was the last in the American Pie trilogy, American Wedding. Earning $15.5 million in its second weekend will make getting $100 million a little harder to come by, but still within reach.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl earned another $13.0 million this weekend, but probably won't overtake Bruce Almighty till next weekend, and not mid-week like I predicted.
Seabiscuit dropped a little more than expected, down to $12 million. With a total box office of nearly $70 million, breaking the $100 million mark could be possible, but it will have to show some serious legs to get there.
Barring a complete collapse of two of next week's four new openings Finding Nemo has spent it's last week in the top 10. And while it earned $2.5 million last weekend it is still a couple of weeks before it beats Forest Gump into 8th place.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-08-09
wide releases this week, one of which was already released on Wednesday. Reviews for both movies started out strong, but only one was able to hold on to the positive press.
This week sees the release of Colin Farrell's fourth of five movies this year. Each one will either bring him closer to superstardom or overexposure. And while it's almost a sure thing S.W.A.T. will finish first, it looks like this movie won't make Colin Farrell a superstar. Reviews started out strong, over 80% on Wednesday, but have now fallen to just over 50%, and they could fall farther as the weekend progresses. In the end $25 million for the weekend and a total take equal to its production budget are in the cards.
My prediction for Freaky Friday's Wednesday opening was right on the money with $6 million. However, my prediction that the reviews would take a drop was not. In fact, reviews have increased to 89%. Because of this I'm increasing my prediction for the weekend to $20 million.
After disappointing figures its first week, American Wedding will start to quickly drop down the list landing in third place this week. Its box office will be cut in half to just under $17 million, which is better than most this summer.
Its weekday numbers are tracking on par with last week, but Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl is starting to shed theatres so a slightly bigger drop-off than last week is in the cards. That still leaves Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl $15 million and just shy of Bruce Almighty. It should beat that movie sometime mid-week.
The battle for fifth place is too close to call at this point. Seabiscuit did have a miniscule 15% drop last week, but it also had a more than 20% increase in theatre count. And without a significant increase in theatres with week I see a much larger drop in box office, down to $13 million. That's the same number I see for Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over. That would bring its three week total to $90 million, ahead of Spy Kids 2's total run.
Nemo Watch takes a break this week as there are no milestone that Finding Nemo is likely to cross this week. At least not on the domestic front.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-08-07
k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. Felt like a slow week, I don't know if that's cause it is a slow week, or that fact that I moved this week meant I didn't have time to really research website updates. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.
Beyond Borders
Current Content: None, just redirects you to Paramount's movie page.
Calendar Girls
Current Content: The movie is still months away but there is considerable content on the site already. Synopsis, trailer, poster and cast and crew (no bios.) There's are background music and a few audio clips, but they don't repeat so you only hear them once.
Cabin Fever
Current Content: New design, new URL. Right now there are only two clips and without any context they make no sense. There are two other clips coming soon so hopefully they will help explain things.
Cheaper By the Dozen
Current Content: None, just redirects you to Fox's movie page.
Cold Creek Manor
Current Content: None, just redirects you to Touchstone's movie page
Envy
Current Content: The VaPOOrizer site was removed last week and now we know why. Its theatrical release has been pushed back to 2004, or perhaps never. Word is it could go direct to video at this stage.
Freaky Friday
Current Content: Just in time for its release the last few features were added. These include the bios and party planner and lots of clips, (a few scenes, some behind the scenes and two music videos.) Overall, this site has a good format and good content to match. The only thing its missing is background music, but it has plenty of sound to make up for that. It's this week's winner of the inescapable Weekly Website Award.
Le Divorce
Current Content: While lacking any really unusual features, this site does present the usual features in a good fashion. Also, the background music fits well with the theme of the movie and avoids becoming repetitive.
Once Upon a Time in Mexico
Current Content: You can now submit questions for the cast interviews that will be part of the site when it launches later on.
Passionade
Current Content: The seafood recipes are finally up. A bit beyond my cooking expertise, but they look good.
The Princess Blade
Current Content: This site has quite a bit of features, but none that are really unique. However, the way they all come together helps. Sound effects, a bit of animation for the segues and good background music are all pluses.
S.W.A.T.
Current Content: I can't give a review of this site since some features do not work with my browser, and some actually cause it to crash.
School of Rock
Current Content: Just a placeholder site with no actual content.
Step into Liquid
Current Content: Because this is a documentary some of the regular features aren't here, like synopsis. But they do have the trailer and cast bios of sorts. (There's bios in the surfers shown in the movie.) Besides the trailer there is a clip of behind the scenes shoots. Definitely a plus is the background music, it's long enough and loops well enough to not become repetitive and is effective without being overwhelming.
Thirteen
Current Content: The old placeholder site is gone and now it redirects you to the trailer on Apple.com.
Timeline
Current Content: Right now there is just the trailer and several audio clips. But their presentation is very cool and hopefully as new content is added this site it will only get better.
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2003-08-06
he weekend is the remake of the 1976 Disney classic Freaky Friday starring Jodie Foster and Barbara Harris. This version of Freaky Friday stars Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan. So far the reviews are amazing, currently sitting at 88%, (although, by the weekend that may change.) However, the two stars do not have a huge draw at the box office. Jamie Lee Curtis hasn't have a big hit since 1994's True Lies and Lindsay Lohan's only other movie role was in another Disney remake, The Parent Trap.
Taking into account star power, reviews and genre Freaky Friday will take $6 million Wednesday and $16 million for the weekend. Not bad for a movie that cost $26 million to make, but not a big hit either.
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2003-07-30
k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. Strange mix this week with mostly placeholders plus a few minor changes. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.
American Wedding
Current Content: Nothing has changed since I reviewed it last week. TV Spots and clips are still marked coming soon. But you can still check out the trailer, 'Bubble Clips', games, etc.
And Now Ladies and Gentlemen
Current Content: All the usual features are here, presented in a simply fashion with nice animated segues. There is, unfortunately, no sound. The inclusion of background music would have really helped this site stand out.
Anything Else
Current Content: Just a placeholder site. Currently it just has the name and release date. ... Wait a second, the trailer was just added. How's that for up to the minute updates.
Bollywood/Hollywood
Current Content: It was just learned that the movie's American release was pushed back a month, but the site has been up since it's Canadian release last year. A Bollywood Musical by way of Canada, this site naturally has a lot of music. There are six clips including Rocky's Song, which pays on the home page. Now the music is very much Bollywood themed so it's probably something you've never heard before, but it grows on you. There's also the synopsis, cast bios, the trailer and animation on every page. It's the little touches like the animations that helped this site win the wondrous Weekly Website Awards.
Bubba Ho-Tep
Current Content: Most of this site is dedicated to the press this film has received, and there is a lot of it. Reviews, stories, audio clips, etc., it's all there. There's also a synopsis and a trailer, but there should have been some more sounds as well. I would have loved to hear some Bruce Campbell as Elvis quotes.
Envy
Current Content: The VaPOOrizer site was removed and replaced with the old placeholder site.
Freaky Friday
Current Content: A few more features were added, the Wild to Mild personality test, Fortune Cookies and Teenage Translator. The bios, party planner and auditions are still marked coming soon.
Freddy vs. Jason
Current Content: New images from the Weight In were added to the site.
Gigli
Current Content: This movie opens this week and Sony still hasn't launched a flash site. The last time that happened was with Hollywood Homicide, and we all know how that turned out.
Grind
Current Content: This site has an impressive amount of behind the scene clips. However, it is missing some of the regular info, like synopsis and cast and crew bios. There is some info on the characters and images and a game to play.
Gothika
Current Content: Typical Warner Bros. placeholder site with just a single image and a synopsis. Full site should be launched as the release date nears.
Intolerable Cruelty
Current Content: The site just launched but the movie doesn't come out till October. So right now there's just the synopsis, trailer and a few photos.
The Magdalene Sisters
Current Content: It's a Miramax site. So you know what that means.
The Run Down
Current Content: Slightly different format for the placeholder site. The trailer was added, and so were some animation and quotes for the transitions.
Scooby Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed
Current Content: Placeholder site with just the poster, photos (two of them) and news from the set.
The Secret Lives of Dentists
Current Content: This site screams for sound, which is too bad cause it has pretty much everything else. All the usual suspects are here, including not only the trailer bur four clips. There's even a section for the music, but no actual music.
Under the Tuscan Sun
Current Content: Placeholder site with trailer, poster and 20 images.
Wonderland
Current Content: Another placeholder site with just the trailer.
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