The Numbers - Box Office Data, Movie Stars, Idle Speculation
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Thursday, November 26, 2009

Nemo 2 Strong 4 Competition


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Only one movie is opening this week, and that should mean good news for that movie. But it’s better news for the holdovers.

Taking into account the lack of competition, the excellent mid-week number and the phenomenal word-of- mouth and Finding Nemo should finish first for the second week in a row. A drop of less than 40% is expected with a box office of $50 million not out of the question.

The only wide opening this week is 2 Fast 2 Furious, which is a sequel in the loosest definition of the word. Only one star from the first is in the second, there’s a new director, new writers, new producers, etc. How will all of these changes affect the box office? If the reviews are anything to go on, 2 Fast 2 Furious won’t be able to live up to the original. It is getting much weaker reviews than the original, especially among the Cream of the Crop reviewers. Still, it should at least come close to the original’s opening thanks to the sequel effect. Look for nearly $40 million, but absolutely no legs.

Bruce Almighty, already the highest grossing comedy of 2003, will continue its strong run with about $25 million for third place. It just failed to cross $150 million yesterday, but by the time you read this, it will have hit that milestone.

There’s quite a drop between third and fourth place, with The Italian Job getting about half of Bruce Almighty. The predicted $13 million is less than a 40% drop, which is a good sign. But the movie cost too much to pull a profit from the home market.

The Matrix Reloaded will fall to fifth place with just $10 million. You know a movie has high expectations when nearly $250 million in five weeks is considered a disappointment.

On a side note, after a two-week absence Bend It Like Beckham should reappear in the top ten.

Submitted by: C.S.Strowbridge

RankMovieTheatersChangeWeeks in
Release
Distributor
1Bruce Almighty3,544+543Universal
22 Fast 2 Furious3,408New1Universal
3Finding Nemo3,391+172Buena Vista
4Matrix Reloaded, The3,186-2674Warner Bros.
5Italian Job, The (2003)2,877+2442Paramount
6Daddy Day Care2,713-4155Sony
7X2: X-Men United2,050-4836Fox
8In-Laws, The (2003)2,047-6053Warner Bros.
9Wrong Turn1,613-22Fox
10Down with Love775-5255Fox

37Love the Hard Way6New1Kino
39Eye, The4New1Palm


Estimated Theater Counts for Next Week's Openers

MovieTheatersDistributor
Rugrats Go Wild2,850Paramount
Dumb and Dumberer: When Harry Met Lloyd2,800New Line
Hollywood Homicide2,700Sony
Jet Lag (US Release)2Miramax
Hard Word, The1Lions Gate

See the full theater count chart


Date posted: 2003-06-06

Movies 
 2 Fast 2 Furious
 The Italian Job
 The Matrix Reloaded
 Bend it Like Beckham