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Thursday, July 24, 2014



Oscar Contest: Category Highlight: Best Supporting Actor

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Supporting Actor, which might be even less competitive than the Best Supporting Actress.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting, not other categories. However, they are for both supporting and lead acting.)

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon for Invictus
Tomatometer Score: 77% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Four SAGs, Three Golden Globes, and One Oscars
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Prediction Contest Vote Share: 10 (4rth)
Notes: A good movie, but not a great movie. Certainly not one you would consider a serious Oscar contender. Matt Damon has even won an Oscar (for Best Original Screenplay) so it is unlikely they will give him the award to make up for a past mistake. I don't think he's the longest of the long shots in this category, but he's close.

Woody Harrelson for The Messenger
Tomatometer Score: 90% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Independent Spirit Award, Golden Globe, and SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAG, One Golden Globes, and One Oscar
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One SAG
Prediction Contest Vote Share: 7 (5th)
Notes: The smallest film on this list, but it had excellent reviews and the praise lumped on this film has centered on Woody Harrelson. I do believe he will win an Oscar in his career, but this is not his year. The film is just too small to be on enough Oscar voters' radar, while there is also an unstoppable juggernaut to deal with as a competitor.

Christopher Plummer for The Last Station
Tomatometer Score: 69% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Independent Spirit Award, Golden Globe, and SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAG and One Golden Globes
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Prediction Contest Vote Share: 12 (3rd)
Notes: I am a little surprised Christopher Plummer hasn't earned much in the way of Awards Season glory, earning only one of his three previous major nominations for theatrical work. I want him to win an Oscar, but this is not the film that he should win it for. Its overall reviews are only 69% positive, which is below the acceptable level for a limited release and well below the level for an Oscar winner. There is a small chance he could win a so-called "Career Achievement" Oscar, but I wouldn't bet on it. Not this year.

Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones
Tomatometer Score: 32% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Independent Spirit Award, One SAGs, and Two Golden Globes
Actor's Previous Major Wins: Two Golden Globes
Prediction Contest Vote Share: 14 (2nd)
Notes: This film was a disappointment at the box office and even more so with critics. Because of that, I was surprised that Stanley Tucci even picked up a nomination. I would be absolutely floored if he won this award. I would consider him the longest of the long shots here.

Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds
Tomatometer Score: 89% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and Two SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globe and Two SAGs
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Prediction Contest Vote Share: 244 (1rst)
Notes: And the Oscar goes to... Another category that's practically a lock. Inglourious Basterds is an amazing movie that is filled with great performances, yet Christoph Waltz was able to stand out among them. He's been winning everything this year, and not just the major awards here, but major awards in Europe as well as numerous critic awards. It would be a major upset if he didn't add to his collection of wins on Sunday.

Conclusion: So far we've looked at six categories and only one of them has been truly competitive. This is not that one. Christoph Waltz is on a massive, massive winning streak and there's little his competition can do to stop it now.


- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2010-03-05

Movies 
 Invictus
 The Messenger
 The Last Station
 The Lovely Bones
 Inglourious Basterds