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Tuesday, July 22, 2014



2012 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Original Screenplay

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, finishing with Best Original Screenplay. This race could be closer than it looks at first, as differences in rules affected the WGA nominations, but will there be an upset?

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for writing and not other categories. Also, for writing teams, they are combined totals with each film counting as one nomination regardless of how many members were part of the previous team.)

Best Original Screenplay

Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
Tomatometer Score: 93% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globe and WGA
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: Fourteen Oscars, Five Golden Globes, Sixteen WGAs, Two Independent Spirit Awards
Writer's Previous Major Wins: Two Oscars, One Golden Globe, Two WGAs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Notes: This is the odds on favorite to win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. It's not hard to see why. It earned amazing reviews, it earned two previous wins. Add in Woody Allen's past wins and he's got the pedigree to win. The only obstacle is The Artist, which could sweep its ten nominations.

J.C. Chandor for Margin Call
Tomatometer Score: 93% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Independent Spirit Awards
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None (One Pending)
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: First Script
Writer's Previous Major Wins: First Script
Notes: Margin Call earned great reviews and did very well for a limited release, but it was never seen as a major Awards Season player. It's Oscar nomination was a shock. It won't win. Don't get me wrong, it's a great movie and worth buying, but the odds against it winning are huge.

Asghar Farhadi for A Separation
Tomatometer Score: 99% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: None
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: None
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Do you know how rare it is for a Foreign Language film to earn any Oscar nomination besides Best Foreign Language Film? It's even rarer for such films to win.

Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Tomatometer Score: 97% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and Independent Spirit Awards
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None (One Pending)
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: None
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: It is likely that this film will be the big winner on Oscar night. This could help it win a few of the categories where it is the underdog, like this one. Midnight in Paris is the favorite here, because when they went head-to-head at the Golden Globe, it came out on top. However, if The Artist wins, it won't be a major shock.

Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo for Bridesmaids
Tomatometer Score: 90% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Writers' Previous Major Nominations: First Screenplay
Writers' Previous Major Wins: First Screenplay
Notes: One of the funniest movies I've seen all year, and a lot of critics agree with my assessment. However, comedies are rarely rewarded during Awards Season and this has led most people to assume this film is a long shot to win an Oscar. In fact, since this category is barely a two horse race, it is earning nearly no buzz.

Conclusion: Woody Allen is the overwhelming favorite to win for Midnight in Paris. The only film with a better than random chance of winning is The Artist, but that still makes it a major underdog.


- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2012-02-23

Movies 
 Midnight in Paris
 Margin Call
 Jodaeiye Nader az Simin
 The Artist
 Bridesmaids