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Tuesday, July 29, 2014



Weekend Estimates: Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D Surprises

After a few weeks of family fare at the top of the box office charts, teens and young adults are reasserting themselves in movie theaters this weekend, pushing Texas Chainsaw 3D to a surprise win and Django Unchained above The Hobbit. Both films will earn over $20 million this weekend, according to studio estimates. There's also a lot of strength in depth this weekend, with 21 films set to earn over $1 million. That's not quite a record (25 films topped $1 million the weekends of January 12, 2007 and the following weekend -- for the full list, see our analysis), but it's certainly a healthy way to start 2013.

Along with Django, most films will have good holds this weekend. Best of the bunch in the top 10 is Lincoln, which will be down about 28%. Silver Linings Playbook continues to hover outside the top 10, but will be down just 11%.

In limited release, two films continue to stand out. Zero Dark Thirty will earn around $2.75 million from 60 theaters for an average of $45,000 or so, while Amour gathers Oscar momentum with a projected $63,596 from three theaters.

Expanding films have less to cheer about this weekend. Promised Land is projected to earn $4.3 million from 1,676 theaters and will barely make the top 10. The Impossible is set for $2.76 million from 572 theaters -- that's a solid average of $4,800 (coincidentally the same as Silver Linings Playbook), which could translate into a decent run based on word of mouth, but there's a lot of competition out there and the film has a long way to go to be considered a success.

- Weekend Estimates

Bruce Nash bruce.nash@the-numbers.com


Date posted: 2013-01-06