There are two wide releases opening this week, The Incredible Burt Wonderstone and The Call, but nearly everyone thinks Oz the Great and Powerful will repeat on top of the chart. Last year, 21 Jump Street opened with $36 million. Oz should match that, but 2012 still had better depth, so 2013 could be in a little bit of trouble on the year-over-year comparison.
Oz the Great and Powerful is a family film with overall positive reviews and no direct competition. It should hold on well during its second weekend of release. Worst case scenario has a 50% drop-off, while the best case scenario has a 40% drop-off. This gives the film a range of $40 million to $48 million. The lower end is a little more likely than the high end, with $42 million being the most likely result. Since the film has already reached the century mark, it is on pace to reach $200 million domestically. If it can match that figure internationally, then it will be on pace to break even sometime during the film's home market run.
The Incredible Burt Wonderstone is the stronger of the two wide releases, but it is unlikely it will top $20 million. It might not even come close. Its reviews certainly won't help. Maybe it will be a bit of a surprise hit and earn $18 million, but $15 million is a safer bet. That isn't a bad start for this time of year, but it is also nothing special.
The Call is the only other wide release of the week, but by every metric it looks to be even weaker than The Incredible Burt Wonderstone. It is opening in fewer theaters, it doesn't have as much buzz, its reviews are even weaker. It could come close to second place with $14 million, or it might fail to top $10 million over the weekend. Safest bet is $12 million. This is just below its reported production budget, so assuming the P&A budget wasn't out of hand, it is a good start.
Jack the Giant Slayer will fall to fourth place with $5 million, more or less. That will push its running tally past $50 million, but the film needed to open with that much to have a shot at breaking even.
Identity Thief will remain in the top five one last time with $4 million. There is a bit if bad news, as the film will relinquish its lead on the yearly chart to Oz the Great and Powerful.
Date posted: 2013-03-15