While Captain America: The Winter Soldier is expected to win the race for first place on the box office chart this weekend, some think it will be rather close with Rio 2 giving it a fight. Draft Day and Oculus will also be in a close race for third place with both films earning in the low teens. Overall, the box office looks a lot stronger than it did last year. Both The Winter Soldier and Rio 2 will crush 42's opening, while Draft Day and Oculus will be close to Scary Movie 5's debut.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened with $95 million over the weekend, which is a record-breaking debut for April. Now it looks to avoid a massive drop-off, the kind that Fanboy films tend to have. On the plus side, its reviews are amazing and the none of the three new releases are direct competition. On the negative side, comic book movies are the archetypical Fanboy movies and a greater than 50% decline is almost inevitable. On the high end, the film will add about $47 million over the weekend to its total, which would rise to about $165 million. On the low end, it could drop to $40 million, which would give Rio 2 an opening for first place. I'm going with $44 million.
Rio 2 is the sequel to Rio. Rio earned good reviews, but not great reviews. Likewise, it did well at the box office, but wasn't a monster hit. Rio 2 hopes to match its predecessor at the box office, but there are two obstacles. Firstly, its competition is stronger. Secondly, its reviews are weaker. If your kids were fans of the first film when it came out in 2011, they might be too old to enjoy this film. It didn't get better or more mature, it just got busier. It still has a shot at first place and could open with more than $40 million, but I think it is wise to be a little more conservative and go with $39 million.
Third place could be a coin toss between Draft Day and Oculus. I think Oculus has a slight advantage, but I'm far from sure about that. Oculus is earning the best reviews of the weekend, but horror films are rarely breakout hits. There's not a lot of direct competition, but it is also arguably the smallest of the three wide releases coming out this week. I'm going with $13 million, but I'm a little more bullish than most.
Draft Day is the third Kevin Costner film coming out this year. Neither of the previous two films made much of an impact at the box office and it doesn't look like this one will break that streak. Its reviews are mixed; in fact, they are currently exactly 50% positive. The buzz is quieter than the other three wide releases coming out this week. Finally, the Football theme might keep away non-Football fans. It could earn third place with $14 million, but it will likely have to settle for fourth with $12 million.
Noah should round out the top five with $8 million over the weekend for a running tally of $86 million. It is still on pace to reach $100 million, but it could fall out of the top ten before then.
Date posted: 2014-04-10