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Monday, July 28, 2014



Weekend Estimates: Spider-Man Swings into Summer with $92 million

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 poster

The modern tradition is that first weekend in May starts the Summer season with a super-hero action movie. And Hollywood being the industry that lets no tradition go before it's beaten it to death, this year we start Summer, on the first weekend in May, with the release of The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Now, the most amazing fact about the Spider-Man franchise is probably that every movie has done worse at the domestic box office than the one before it, even without adjusting for inflation. This is another tradition that looks like it might continue, with Spider-Man 2 opening with $92 millionówithout doubt a very good debut, but one that points towards a final box office around $250 million, or perhaps a shade higher. With The Amazing Spider-Man having made $262 million in 2012, a fourth straight decline for the franchise looks like a 50-50 bet right now.

Not that $92 million is anything to be ashamed of. It's only a shade less than the $95 million managed by Captain America: The Winter Soldier a month ago, and puts in the top 20 weekends in May. But it's a long way short of the $151 million earned by Spider-Man 3 on the same weekend in 2007, and raises the possibility that Summer 2014 might not have a single $100 million weekendósomething we haven't seen in a long time.

Unsurprisingly, with no other wide releases, the rest of the chart has a familiar look to it. The Other Woman will be off a respectable 43% this weekend at $14.2 million, taking it to $47.3 million after two weekends. Religious films Heaven is for Real and God's Not Dead both have good holds this weekend, down 39% to $8.7 million and 37% to $1.77 million respectively. The Grand Budapest Hotel has the best hold in the top 10, down 29% to $1.735 million, and up three places to tenth. It has now overtaken Moonrise Kingdom and is about a week away from passing The Royal Tenenbaums, currently Wes Anderson's best-performing film at the domestic box office. Budapest Hotel is already easily his best film internationally.

In limited release, Belle is the clear leader on the Theater Average chart. It will open with around $104,500, according to Fox Searchlight, for an average of $26,125 per theater. With strong reviews, it should have a profitable Summer run, with Searchlight undoubtedly hoping to duplicate the performance of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel a couple of years ago.

- Weekend Estimates

Bruce Nash bruce.nash@the-numbers.com


Date posted: 2014-05-04