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Monday, September 1, 2014



Weekend Estimates: Jump Street and Dragon Share Spoils

22 Jump Street poster

Moviegoers are spoiled for choice this weekend, with the two major openers both scoring over 90% positive reviews, and a wealth of returning films that are definitely worth watching. Top of the heap will be 22 Jump Street, which is set to post a $60 million opening weekend—well ahead of the $36.3 million debut posted by the first film in the franchise. With foreign territories also doing significantly better than last time around, 23 Jump Street is surely just a matter of time (my money’s on two years).

While Jump Street will take weekend honors, How to Train Your Dragon 2 is likely to end up with the bigger final total, with a $50 million opening, likely better weekday numbers, and probably better legs than Jump Street. The opening is only a shade ahead of the $43.7 million posted by How to Train Your Dragon back in 2010, which is most likely a reflection of the long wait for the sequel. A final domestic box office over $200 million seems likely, and the international release should take it to $500 million or more globally, although the World Cup complicates its international roll-out.

Among returning films, The Fault in Our Stars predictably fell sharply in its second weekend, although a tumble of 67% to fifth place really is dramatic as these things go. It’s just possible that it will be the first film to post $25 million on its opening day, and fail to reach $100 million in total. (Paranormal Activity 3 currently holds the record, and you can see the complete list here).

In limited release, Alone Yet Not Alone looks set for the best debut, with around $680,000 from 103 theaters (the distributor has not reported an official estimate yet). Other impressive debuts include The Rover, with $70,000 from five theaters, Ivory Tower, with $17,000 projected from two theaters, and Hellion, which is set for about $9,000 in a single location.

The big disappointment in limited release, however, is The Signal, which is projected to earn just $146,000 from 120 theaters, for an average barely over $1,000.

- Weekend Estimates

Bruce Nash bruce.nash@the-numbers.com


Date posted: 2014-06-15