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Monday, September 1, 2014

Predicted Oscar Winners

The Numbers' annual Oscar polls have proved to be remarkably accurate predictors of the final results on Oscar night. Each year we publish our most confident predictions in the days leading up to awards night, and we really stick our necks out on Oscar day by predicting the results in all categories.

We call results based on the hundreds of Numbers readers who vote in our Predict the Oscars competition.

We've received all the votes now, and are ready to make predictions in all categories. Percentage figures are the percentage of Numbers readers who believe a movie or performance will win in a particular category. They are a rough guide to how likely a particular movie is to win in a category - for example, we're pretty certain Lord of the Rings will win Best Picture, while we think Lost in Translation is, by a fraction, the most likely winner of the Original Screenplay award.

Click here to see the complete vote tallies in each category.

Best Picture The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  (91.17%)
Animated Feature Finding Nemo  (95.76%)
Directing The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Peter Jackson (91.17%)
Actor in a Leading Role Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl Johnny Depp (44.42%)
Actress in a Leading Role Monster Charlize Theron (57.35%)
Actor in a Supporting Role Mystic River Tim Robbins (43.24%)
Actress in a Supporting Role Cold Mountain Renee Zellweger (59.69%)
Art Direction The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  (48.64%)
Cinematography Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World  (58.63%)
Costume Design The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  (74.64%)
Film Editing The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  (51.04%)
Foreign Language Film Les invasions barbares  (72.69%)
Makeup The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  (55.24%)
Music (Score) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  (47.04%)
Music (Song) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Into the West (83.59%)
Sound The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  (66.58%)
Sound Editing Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World  (68.96%)
Visual Effects The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  (69.55%)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  (47.75%)
Writing (Original Screenplay) Lost in Translation  (47.04%)
Documentary Feature Weather Underground  (31.23%)
Documentary - Short Subject Chernobyl Heart (66.98%)
Short Film - Animated Gone Nutty (51.06%)
Short Film - Live Action Squash (45.73%)

Check back after the event to see how we did...