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Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Predicted Oscar Winners - 2011

The Numbers' annual Oscar polls have proved to be remarkably accurate predictors of the final results on Oscar night. We call results based on the hundreds of The Numbers readers who vote in our Predict the Oscars competition. We've received all the votes now, and are ready to make predictions in all categories. The big prize of the night is predicted to go to The King's Speech, scoring 70% of the votes for Best Picture. The film is only predicted to win two other awards, though, with no less than six movies predicted to win multiple statuettes.

Percentage figures are the percentage of The Numbers readers who believe a movie or performance will win. They are a rough guide to how likely a particular movie is to win in a category - for example, Toy Story 3 looks virtually certain to win the Best Animated Feature award.

Overall, the Oscars look as though they will be spread fairly wide this year, with The Social Network predicted to win the most, at four, and The King's Speech and Inception predicted at three wins each. Given the wide distribution, the individual predictions are remarkably certain. The King's Speech is given a nearly 70% chance of winning Best Picture, Colin Firth got over 90% of the votes for Best Actor in a Leading Role, and several predicted winners (including Natalie Portman and Christian Bale) got over 80% of the votes in their category.

With the Oscars spread far and wide, we should be in for an interesting evening.

- Click here to see the complete vote tallies in each category
- Actual winners on the night

Best Picture The King's Speech  (69.60%)
Best Animated Feature Film Toy Story 3  (95.97%)
Directing The Social Network David Fincher (63.85%)
Actress in a Leading Role Black Swan Natalie Portman (88.62%)
Actor in a Leading Role The King's Speech Colin Firth (92.84%)
Actor in a Supporting Role The Fighter Christian Bale (86.24%)
Actress in a Supporting Role The Fighter Melissa Leo (54.50%)
Best Writing: Original Screenplay The King's Speech  (66.85%)
Best Writing: Adapted Screenplay The Social Network  (90.28%)
Best Foreign Language Film Biutiful  (53.03%)
Best Documentary: Feature Length Inside Job  (48.62%)
Best Documentary: Short Film Strangers No More (38.05%)
Short Film: Live Action God of Love (28.73%)
Short Film: Animated Day & Night (47.97%)
Achievement in Cinematography True Grit  (45.96%)
Achievement in Art Directing Alice in Wonderland  (37.32%)
Achievement in Costume Design Alice in Wonderland  (58.01%)
Achievement in Makeup The Wolfman  (73.85%)
Achievement in Visual Effects Inception  (89.36%)
Achievement in Editing The Social Network  (62.62%)
Achievement in Sound Editing Inception  (79.23%)
Achievement in Sound Mixing Inception  (78.49%)
Achievement in Music: Original Score The Social Network  (50.00%)
Achievement in Music: Original Song Toy Story 3 We Belong Together (57.27%)

We'll have a full report on how our predictions matched up to reality on Monday morning.