January 17th, 2012
There were five new releases to reach the top 30 on this week's DVD sales chart. This includes a new number one selling DVD, Contagion. The film sold 411,000 units during its first week of release generating $6.16 million.
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January 10th, 2012
There wasn't a lot of activity on this week's DVD sales chart. There were just two new releases that reached the top 30, neither of them reached the top five. In fact, there was only one film in the top five this week that was wasn't in the top five last week. The Hangover II remained in first place with 298,000 units / $2.96 million for the week giving it total sales of 2.91 million units / $38.35 million, after a month of release.
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January 6th, 2012
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 climbed into first place on the Blu-ray sales chart with 232,000 units / $4.63 million over the week for a total of 4.79 million units / $102.50 million after seven weeks of release. It became only the third Blu-ray to reach the $100 million milestone.
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January 4th, 2012
There were only four new releases to reach the top 30 on this week's DVD sales chart, and only one of those placed in the top five. The Hangover II rose to first place with 521,000 units / $5.20 million for the week and 2.26 million units / $31.22 million after three. This is barely more than half what the original sold during its first week of release.
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December 21st, 2011
This year Christmas is a mess, when it comes to the box office. There are six films opening or expanding wide spread over six days. This includes The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which was bumped up at the last minute and opened on Tuesday. At the other end of the time frame, War Horse and The Darkest Hour don't open till Sunday. The number of films virtually guarantees at least two will struggle at the box office, but hopefully by spreading out the releases, moviegoers will be able to spread their daily movie contact among the new releases. That is if people will bother going to the movies. The longer the slump continues, the more likely it is due to a systemic issue. When people stop going to the movies, they don't see as many trailers and posters for upcoming releases and they are less excited about upcoming releases and, therefore, they are less likely to see movies in the future. It's a vicious cycle. Last year wasn't a great weekend at the box office, because Christmas Eve, which is a dead zone at the box office, landed on a Friday. This year it lands on a Saturday, so it could be even worse.
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December 20th, 2011
Christmas is less than a week away and there are a few releases that would make great last minute gifts. There are also very few releases overall so expect a short list this week. These great last minute gift ideas include Midnight in Paris on DVD or Blu-ray, Dolphin Tale in 3D Combo Pack and Futurama: Volume Six on DVD or Blu-ray. However, for Pick of the Week, I'm going with Warrior on Blu-ray Combo Pack. It's a great movie and there are plenty of extras on the DVD and the Blu-ray includes a Picture-in-Picture track.
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October 17th, 2011
This past weekend was one the industry would love to forget. It was one of the worst weekend of the entire year. The total box office haul was just $88 million, which was 7.5% lower than last weekend and an absolute stunning 33% lower than the same weekend last year. A year-over-year discrepancy like that usually only occurs when there's a misalignment in the calendar. (Summer starting a week later than it did the year before. A major holiday falling a week later than it did the year before. Halloween or Christmas Day landing on the weekend.) It was so bad, that the top five films this year barely made more than Jackass 3D opened with last year. Footloose was the only new release that made any real impact, but it wasn't enough to overtake Real Steel on top of the chart. Meanwhile, 2011 lost more ground to 2010 and it is now down by 4% at $8.23 billion to $8.56 billion. If we are to see a recovery, it will have to happen really fast.
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October 13th, 2011
Firstly, I would like to apologize for the Footloose / Footlose pun in the title. It is unacceptable, even by my standards. Secondly, we are going to lose. This weekend last year Jackass 3D broke the record for biggest October weekend and there's no chance that feat will be replicated this weekend. In fact, there's almost no chance this weekend will match Red's opening last year. Footloose, The Thing, and The Big Year won't earn $50 million over the weekend combined. We really need the win, but all evidence points to a tough loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 10th, 2011
October started out with mixed results and it seems for every bit of good news there was equal and opposite bad news. Real Steel topped expectations, but Ides of March did not. The overall box office slipped by 4% from last weekend to $95 million, but it was higher than the same weekend last year. Growth was under 2%, meaning ticket sales were weaker. Year-to-date, 2011 is still behind 2010, but the gap was narrowed to 3% at $8.11 billion to $8.39 billion. There's still a chance we can catch up, but we are running out of time and can't afford any missteps.
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October 9th, 2011
This weekend is turning out almost precisely as predicted in our Friday preview, with Real Steel cruising to a comfortable with with an estimated $27.3 million and Ides of March under-performing a bit with $10.4 million. Both movies seem to have found their intended audiences fairly successfully, but March was clearly hindered by mediocre reviews.
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October 6th, 2011
September was a good month and 2011 was able to close the gap with 2010 by $60 million; however, it is still close to $300 million behind last year's pace. This weekend we could see that gap close a little further. There's only one wide release, Real Steel, but it should be bigger than any of last year's three wide releases. In fact, there's a tiny, but statistically significant, chance it could earn more during its opening weekend than the combined opening weekends of Life as We Know It, Secretariat, and My Soul to Take. Ides of March won't be as strong, but it should play counter-programming well enough to grab a solid second place. If the holdovers can hold their own, then the month should start off on a winning note.
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October 3rd, 2011
It was a good news / bad news weekend and the box office. First the bad news. Only one of the four new wide releases made any real impact and this led to a 16% drop-off from last weekend to just $99 million. The good news is that's still 4% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2011 is still behind 2010 by 3% at $7.99 billion to $8.27 billion, but at least there's a little hope left that we can turn things around, if October beats expectations.
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October 2nd, 2011
The industry's slow period in September and October is traditionally a dumping ground for films that the studios would rather forget, but it also presents an opportunity for movies that would otherwise be swamped by the competition at busier times of year. This weekend provides a perfect example of this phenomenon, with two pictures aimed at church-going families coming out the big winners. Dolphin Tale dropped just 25% in its second weekend to jump from third to first on the chart, overtaking Moneyball, which had a good second weekend (down 35% to $12.5 million) and The Lion King, which ran out of steam a bit, but still crossed $400 million at the box office. But the bigger surprise was the $8.8 million opening for Courageous from what must have been 1,161 carefully-chosen theaters. Its $7,580 per theater average comfortably tops the list among wide releases.
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September 29th, 2011
It's another busy week with three wide releases, plus another opening in just over 1,000 theaters, which is barely semi-wide. The widest release is What's Your Number?, but romantic comedies rarely have breakout success. The best-reviewed is 50/50, but its subject matter might make it hard to sell to audiences. Meanwhile, Dream House had an effective trailer, but there are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Courageous should grab a spot in the top ten, but it is not a sure bet. Unfortunately for the year-on-year comparison, none of the new releases look as strong as The Social Network, which opened this weekend last year. In fact, there's a slim chance all four of this year's wide release combined won't match The Social Network's $22.45 million. On the other hand, three of the four could crack $10 million, plus there are three holdovers that could do the same. Depth could be the key to victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 26th, 2011
It was a very good weekend at the box office, compared to the average for this time of year. None of the four wide releases were real bombs, although a couple opened soft, they were within the range of expectations. Also, The Lion King held on even better than expected leading the way for the second weekend in a row. This helped the film grow just over 16% from last weekend to $117 million. More importantly, the overall box office was close to 17% higher than this weekend last year. Not only did The Lion King top Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps's opening, so did Moneyball and Dolphin Tale. Year-to-date, 2011 is still behind 2010 by 4% at $7.85 billion to $8.14 billion, but a few more wins like this and that gap will start to close.
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September 25th, 2011
In a surprisingly strong weekend for September, The Lion King will enjoy a second weekend at the top of the chart, although only by a narrow margin over new entries Moneyball and Dolphin Tale. Disney's animated classic will take in about $22 million this weekend, and now looks set to pass $400 million in lifetime domestic box office before its theatrical run is over, and it has a shot at topping Spider-Man to take a place in the all-time top 10.
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September 22nd, 2011
It's a busy week with four wide releases, including two that are opening at saturation level theater counts. With such a lot of competition, there's little chance all four will find a sizable audience this weekend. In fact, there's a chance none of them will be able to top The Lion King, leaving it on top for the second weekend in a row. If that happens, there's no telling how many classic films will get a 3D conversion. As for which release have the best shot at becoming the new box office king, Moneyball seems to be the consensus pick, but there is some debate as to how well the new releases will do. There's also some debate as to how well the overall box office will do compared to last year. There's a 50-50 chance the number one film this year will top Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps, which earned just over $19 million last year, while the depth is a little better this year.
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September 1st, 2011
After a strong start, August ended on a really low note, and that's bad news for September, as it means the positive momentum we had is gone. Looking at the upcoming month, there are 18 films opening wide over five weekends (including one re-release) but only four or five of them have a real shot at being midlevel hits, and it is unlikely that all of them will get there. Worse still, there are no films opening this month that look like they will match The Town, which made more than $90 million last September. In fact, the selection of releases is so weak that the film I'm most looking forward to is a limited release that has already come out on Video on Demand, Tucker and Dale vs. Evil. (It has seventeen reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and still not a negative one among them.)
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