December 4th, 2019
Tuesday is the day after Cyber Monday, also know as, “One of the worst days of the year to release something on the home market.” There’s not a lot to talk about, while the biggest release of the week is also one of the biggest disappointments of the year, but the less said about that, the better. As for Pick of the Week contenders, we have Big Trouble in Little China: Collector’s Edition and that’s it. There are a few other releases that are close to that level, but none that reach it.
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November 19th, 2019
It is not a prime week on the home market with Dora and the Lost City of Gold being the biggest first run release. It is worth picking up, but not a contender for Pick of the Week. There were a lot of contenders for that title, including Cold War: The Criterion Collection, Fruits Basket: Season One, Part One, and Rock ‘n’ Roll High School: 40th Anniversary Edition. In the end, I went with Rock ‘n’ Roll High School, but all three will end up in my Blu-ray collection before long.
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September 23rd, 2019
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It was a strong weekend with almost every film in the top five topping predictions. Downton Abbey dominated the chart with $31.03 million, breaking the record for an opening weekend by a Focus Features film in the process. Both Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood also beat expectations, albeit by much, much smaller margins. This helped the overall box office grow 12% from last weekend to $123 million. More importantly, this is 34% higher than the same weekend last year. I was expecting substantial growth, but not this much growth. Granted, 2019 is still behind 2018, but the lead has been cut to 5.5% or $470 million at $8.14 billion to $8.61 billion. Furthermore, if we have a few more good weeks, then optimism will actually return to the box office analysis.
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September 17th, 2019
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It: Chapter Two and Hustlers both topped expectations by large margins over the weekend and that helped the overall box office earn $110 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend; however, this was also 2.2% higher than the same weekend last year and that is by far the more important detail. 2019 is still behind 2018, but the gap closed by a little bit and is now at 5.9% or $500 million at $7.98 billion to $8.48 billion. Fortunately, the international box office is doing better and overall 2019 is merely mediocre and it still has time to improve.
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September 15th, 2019
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It is shaping up to be a great weekend at the box office with both Hustlers and It: Chapter Two topping expectations. It: Chapter Two is going to repeat on top, with an estimated sophomore stint of $40.74 million for a running tally of $153.80 million. This represents a 55% decline, which is certainly fantastic for a horror sequel. It still likely means $250 million domestically is out of the question, but even $200 million is amazing for a movie that cost less than $70 million to make. Internationally, the film pulled in another $47 million in 78 markets for a two-week total of $169.5 million. It has already made over $300 million worldwide, which might be enough to break even, depending on its advertising budget and exact share of the box office. If not, it will break even very shortly.
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September 14th, 2019
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Hustlers did surprisingly well to earn first place on Friday with an estimated $13.1 million. This puts it on pace for $32 million over the full weekend, which is more than enough for the biggest opening in STX Entertainment’s history and the biggest live-action opening in Jennifer Lopez’s career. It is not that far behind Crazy Rich Asians’ five-day opening and will also be Constance Wu’s best opening. There’s more good news: The film’s reviews are the best in the top ten at 87% positive and STX Entertainment has tended to have a lot of success giving their films long legs. The Bad Moms franchise is evidence of that. On the downside, the movie only managed a B minus from CinemaScore, but it is a dark comedy and those can be divisive. Additionally, while it earned first place on Friday, it won’t stay there for long.
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September 13th, 2019
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Hustlers started its box office run with $2.5 million in previews last night. This is a faster start than other comparable releases, including the $2 million earned by Bad Moms in 2016. There is some bad news, but only for analysts like myself. There are not a lot of films like this released each year, so there is still a lot of uncertainty going forward. On the positive side, its reviews remain just shy of 90% positive, so the word-of-mouth should be phenomenal. Meanwhile, its target audience isn’t the kind that rushes out to see a movie opening night, so it should do even better during the rest of the weekend. On the low end, it will open with $20 million, which is very close to its $20.7 million production budget. On the high end, it could reach $30 million and break records for both the studio, STX Entertainment, and the lead actress, Jennifer Lopez. (Although in the latter case, it would be her live-action record.) I think the higher end is more likely, which means the movie should top our $24 million prediction.
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September 12th, 2019
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There are only two wide releases this weekend, Hustlers and The Goldfinch. The buzz surrounding Hustlers has grown at the perfect time, but it has a non-zero chance of topping It: Chapter Two for top spot on the weekend box office chart. On the other hand, The Goldfinch is seen as busted Oscar-bait and will only open in the top five due to extremely weak competition. This weekend last year, The Predator earned first place with close to $25 million, while the other two wide releases earned about that combined. This means last year’s three new releases will be more potent than this year’s two new releases, but I think 2019 will earn a comfortable win, in part thanks to this year’s much better depth.
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September 3rd, 2019
Drama starring Ansel Elgort opens September 13 ... Full Movie Details.
Theodore “Theo” Decker was 13 years old when his mother was killed in a bombing at the Metropolitan Museum of Art. The tragedy changes the course of his life, sending him on a stirring odyssey of grief and guilt, reinvention and redemption, and even love. Through it all, he holds on to one tangible piece of hope from that terrible day… a painting of a tiny bird chained to its perch. The Goldfinch.
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September 1st, 2019
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Summer ended on a thoroughly mediocre note, with more August releases missing expectations than topping them. That said, it wasn’t a complete mess, with Hobbs and Shaw doing extremely well internationally, and some others heading towards profitability, if not becoming spectacular hits. September, on the other hand, should be one of the best months in the year, at least on the year-over-year competition. The month starts with It: Chapter Two, which could open with more than $100 million. By comparison, last September, only one film, The Nun, earned more than $100 million in total. Additionally, Abominable has a slim but realistic chance at reaching the $100 million milestone, so it should be a great month on the year-over-year comparison. 2019 isn’t going to catch up to 2018, but it should narrow the gap considerably.
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