Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for January 8th, 2019

January 9th, 2019

We are still in that awkward time on the home market we have to deal with every year. It is too late for the summer blockbusters to come out on DVD / Blu-ray, but too soon for the fall hits or Oscar contenders. This means there’s very little in the way of contenders for Pick of the Week with only one release worth considering, a Canadian show, Frankie Drake Mysteries: Season 1. This does mean I get to give out a Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Venom Invades Record Books with $80.26 million

October 9th, 2018

Venom topped the high end of expectations over the weekend with $80.26 million, breaking several October records. A Star is Born also topped expectations with $44.26 million during its opening weekend and should have very long legs. Overall, the box office pulled in $177 million, which is 68% more than last weekend and this weekend last year. That’s a strange coincidence. Year-to-date, 2018 was able to stretch its lead over 2017, which now sits at 9.9% or $810 billion at $8.98 billion to $8.16 billion. I was worried we might be down to a $500 million lead at this point, but 2018 continues to impress. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Wishing September Good Night

October 2nd, 2018

Overall, the weekend matched our predictions almost perfectly. All three new releases came within a rounding error of our prediction, if not better. This includes Night School, which led the way with $27.26 million during its opening weekend, while Smallfoot wasn’t too far behind with $23.05 million. Overall, the box office was 14% higher than last weekend at $105 million. This is also 16% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead over 2017 remained nearly identical this week at 9.0% / $720 million with $8.77 billion compared to $8.04 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Night School earns a Passing Grade with $28 million

September 30th, 2018

The weekend box office lived up to expectations, for the most part. Night School is projected to earn $28 million over the weekend, which almost matches its $29 million production budget. It would take tiny legs to fail to cover its production budget, which is unlikely. Granted, its reviews are only 31% positive, but it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so its target audience liked it a whole lot more than the critics did. Its international start wasn’t great at $5.5 million in 19 markets, but within expectations. It earned second place in the U.K. with $2.02 million in 452 theaters, as well as third place in Australia with $1.20 million on 198. More...

Estimates: Friday’s Numbers are a little on the Small(foot) Size

September 29th, 2018

New releases did well during previews, but returned to the levels we were predicting on Friday. Night School earned $9.5 million during its opening day, which isn’t enough to get to $30 million over the weekend, but it could be enough to match our $27 million prediction, or at least come within a rounding error of that figure. Audiences liked the movie more than critics did, as it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. Meanwhile, the film reportedly cost $29 million to make, so Universal should be happy with this result. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Night School gets off to an Intelligent Start

September 28th, 2018

Night School earned $1.35 million during its previews last night. In order to match our $27 million prediction, the film needed about $1.2 million during its previews, so this start makes opening above $30 million a lot more likely. Granted, its reviews are not going to help, but the film still has an excellent shot at topping its production budget during its opening weekend. It would take a combination of tragic legs, zero international demand, and irresponsibly high advertising costs for this film to not break even after this start. More...

Weekend Prediction: Smallfoot Looking for Big Box Office

September 26th, 2018

The final weekend of September is home to three wide releases. Two of these, Night School and Smallfoot could be solid hits. And since they are aimed at vastly different audiences, they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office. On the other hand, Hell Fest is a low-budget horror movie that should earn more during its opening weekend than its $5.5 million production budget. Meanwhile, last week’s number one film, The House with a Clock in its Walls, should still have a solid weekend haul, giving the box office reasonable depth. This weekend last year, no film earned more than $20 million, while this year we should have two above that mark. Last year did have better depth, but I think 2018 will end its mini-losing streak in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2018 Preview: September

September 1st, 2018

Overall, August was a little better than expected. Granted, there were no monster hits, but Warner Bros. had two $100 million hits in The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin will come close enough to that milestone to be a hit. This allowed 2018 to stretch its lead over 2017 by over $700 million. Will that lead grow in September? Nope. Not even close. There are three major problems that will hurt September’s box office. Firstly, there are a lot of films that may or may not open wide. Secondly, there are no films opening this month that have a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million. Finally... It. It destroyed records last September, earning more during its opening weekend than any film opening this month will earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has such an enormous lead that even with It, 2018 should remain ahead of 2107 by $500 million at the end of the month. More...

Hell Fest Trailer

August 16th, 2018

Horror movie opens September 28 ... Full Movie Details.

College student Natalie is visiting her childhood best friend Brooke and her roommate Tayler. If it was any other time of year these three and their boyfriends might be heading to a concert or bar, but it is Halloween which means that like everyone else they will be bound for Hell Fest—a sprawling labyrinth of rides, games, and mazes that travels the country and happens to be in town. But for one visitor, Hell Fest is not the attraction—it is a hunting ground. An opportunity to slay in plain view of a gawking audience. As the body count and frenzied excitement of the crowds continues to rise, he turns his masked face to Natalie, Brooke, Taylor and their boyfriends who will fight to survive the night. More...