January 13th, 2015
This week on the home market is about as busy as last week was, but there are far fewer contenders for Pick of the Week, as Gone Girl just crushes the competition and the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week. The next best picks are Empire: Season Five and Love is Strange on Blu-ray.
September 30th, 2014
September is over and while it got off to a bad start, a really, really, truly terrible start, it actually ended on a bit of a strong note. Granted, no film has yet to reach $100 million, but The Maze Runner and The Equalizer both could get there in the end. As for October, we might go another month without a $100 million hit. There are a couple of films that have the potential to reach the century mark, Gone Girl and Fury. Hopefully they will get there, but given the recent box office woes, it is probably best to keep expectations low. Last October, there were two films that earned more than $100 million. Bad Grandpa just made it passed that mark. On the other hand, Gravity was a monster hit earning nearly $275 million. It you compare its run to this year's batch of films, it only ranks behind Guardians of the Galaxy. ... There's no way any film opening this month is going to match that. ... There no way the top two films will match that. ... The top three films might not match that. ... 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison and by the end of the month, it will be safe to say its chances of ever catching up to 2013 will be over. It is going to be a depressing month.
September 16th, 2014
No Good Deed led the box office this weekend with a surprisingly robust opening of $24.25 million. This was more than double last week's number one movie, Guardians of the Galaxy. Dolphin Tale 2 also topped last week's number one film, even though it didn't live up to expectations. Overall, the box office pulled in $90 million, which was 37% more than last weekend. Unfortunately, this was still 13% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $7.26 billion, which isn't an insignificant amount. However, it is 5.2% or nearly $400 million behind last year's pace. 2014 still has a chance to catch up to last year, but the odds of it doing so are getting slimmer and slimmer each week.
September 9th, 2014
The weekend box office was an unmitigated disaster. Guardians of the Galaxy was the only film to crack $10 million over the weekend and there were no other releases that came close. The only new "wide" release was The Identical, and it missed the top ten. Overall, the box office fell 40% from last weekend to just $66 million. It goes without saying that this is the worst box office of the year so far. In fact, it is the fifth worst box office weekend since 2000 running 23% lower than the worst weekend from last year. The worst weekend from last year was this weekend last year, so that makes the comparison so much easier. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $7.15 billion, which is 5.1% lower than the last year's pace. Things better turn around soon, or we can say goodbye to any chance to catch up to last year.
September 5th, 2014
It's the weekend after Labor Day Weekend, which is historically the one of the two worst weekends of the year. Only the weekend after Thanksgiving really competes with it. This year there is only one wide release, The Identical, and it technically not opening truly wide. It is practically guaranteed that Guardians of the Galaxy will win the weekend box office race for the fourth time in its run and there likely won't be many changes in the top five. (As Above, So Below will drop out and The November Man will take its place.) This weekend last year, Riddick opened in first place with $19.03 million. No film this week it going to match that figure and the depth this year isn't going to help. Look for a big loss in the year-over-year comparison.
September 1st, 2014
August was a great month, it is as simple as that. Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy break records, but Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was a surprise hit as well. These early gains led to an extended winning streak in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, 2014 is still more than $300 million behind 2013, but this is substantially less than the gap was before the month. Can September maintain this run? I'm not sure. Last September was strong compared to most Septembers with Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 earning more than $100 million while Insidious Chapter 2 came relatively close. This year, there likely won't be any $100 million hits, but I think The Equalizer should at least come close. Meanwhile, there are some who think The Maze Runner will be the biggest hit of the month, but I'm not among them. There have been too many similar releases that have struggled to think this one will be a hit. I think September will get off to a terrible start, but overall I think it will be close to last year.
August 29th, 2014
It appears The Green Inferno has been pulled from the schedule. The Identical will be the target film for this box office prediction contest. Sorry for the confusion.
Next weekend is the weekend after Labor Day, which is historically one of two weakest weekends of the year. This year there are one or two wide releases. I'm not 100% sold that The Identical will open truly wide. Because of this, The Green Inferno is the only true choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Green Inferno.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Jarhead 2: Field of Fire on Blu-ray Combo Pack, as well as one other previously reviewed release.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win two previously reviewed releases.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!