Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 27th, 2019

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless. More...

Home Market Releases for May 21st, 2019

May 21st, 2019

It is a very strange week on the home market. There are two $100 million hits, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World and The Upside, a midlevel hit, Isn’t it Romantic, and then practically nothing. The week’s releases are more top-heavy than any other week I can remember. Fortunately, the biggest release of the week, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, is also one of the best wide releases of the year so far and it is easily the Pick of the Week. In fact, it would likely have won that title even if it was a busier than average week. More...

Weekend Prediction: Endgame Takes Aim at The Force Awakens

May 2nd, 2019

Avengers: Endgame looks to break more records this weekend. It is specifically taking aim at The Force Awakens for the biggest second weekend of all time. If it can break this record, then The Force Awakens’s all-time Domestic title is in serious trouble. There are also a trio of wide releases opening this week, but I don’t think they will be a major factor at the box office. Long Shot is clearly the best and I think it will do well for a Romantic Comedy. UglyDolls’ reviews are not pretty, but they shouldn’t hurt this family film too much. Finally there's, The Intruder, which is not only the smallest release, but it is also earning the worst reviews. This weekend last year, Avengers: Infinity War dominated the chart, with Overboard earning second place with just under $15 million. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dragons Stay Afloat, Medea Ends on a High Note

March 3rd, 2019

According to estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World really bounced back on Saturday and its Sunday number will help it earn first place over the weekend with $30.05 million. This is lower than predictions and a sophomore decline of 48% is a little steep for a family film. That said, the film is nearly at $100 million domestically after just 10 days and its worldwide total is at $375 million, again according to estimates. The film opened in first place in China with $33.38 million in approximately 10,000 locations. The film’s only remaining major market is Japan, but it doesn’t open there until August. In the meantime, the film should have little trouble getting to $500 million worldwide before then. More...

Friday Estimates: Medea Takes on Dragons and Wins

March 2nd, 2019

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral got off to a faster than expected start on Friday earning $9.2 million. This might be enough to keep it in first place over the full weekend. It depends on its legs. Its reviews are only 29% positive, which normally would be a disaster, but the Madea franchise has been critic-proof for its entire history, so this really shouldn’t have an effect and opening with $26 million or more is likely. More...

Weekend Predictions: New Month, New Beginning?

February 28th, 2019

2019 has been a terrible year and we really need things to turn around soon or there will be no chance for things to turn around by the end. Fortunately, things should turn around in March. Unfortunately, it won’t be this week. The two wide releases this week are Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral and Greta. The former is expected to become a midlevel hit. The latter might not top the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Black Panther continued to dominate the box office with $66.31 million. This is likely more than the combined final domestic box office numbers of the two wide releases. 2019 will lose the year-over-year comparison, again, but hopefully for the last time in several weeks. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dragons Breath Fire and Life into the Box Office

February 26th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World not only led the way over the weekend, it had the fastest start of the year so far. This helped the overall box office grow to $127 million. This is 4.3% higher than last weekend, which might not seem impressive, but this is a post-holiday weekend and we usually see a substantial drop-off. On the other hand, this is still 34% lower than this weekend last year, as Black Panther’s sophomore stint was almost exactly double The Hidden World’s debut. This left 2019 even further behind 2018 and the gap is now 25% or $460 million at $1.36 billion to $1.82 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dragons Roar, Holdovers Can’t Soar

February 24th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World isn’t quite matching Friday’s projections, but it is still dominating the weekend box office with an estimated $55.53 million Friday through Sunday, and $58.03 million in total if you include the paid previews. This is by far the biggest opening of the year, topping Glass by $15 million and the film is already in the top five for 2019. Internationally, it debuted in first place in Russia with $11.2 million, pushing its weekend haul to $34.7 million, while its international running tally rose to $216.9 million. It is already the biggest worldwide hit of the year, at least it is the biggest Hollywood hit at the global box office. So far that chart is dominated by Chinese films, but that’s common, as Chinese New Year usually results in a few films earning over $100 million at the box office during that week alone. More...

Friday Estimates: Dragons Take Flight One Last Time

February 23rd, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is beating expectations with $17.49 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $60 million over the full weekend, including its $2.5 million from paid previews. This is more than enough to be the fastest opening in the franchise and it is easily the best opening of the year so far. It’s nice for a potential major hit to actually top expectations and this is the first time that’s happened all year. Hopefully the film’s reviews and word-of-mouth can continue to lift its box office chances over the full weekend and indeed over the next few weeks. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dragons make the Box Office Soar Again?

February 21st, 2019

There’s only one true wide release this weekend, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but it should become the fastest opening film of the year so far. Additionally, Fighting With My Family is expanding wide and after its stellar start last weekend, it should easily earn a spot in the top five. It likely won’t be able to top Alita: Battle Angel or The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, but it should be in a battle for fourth place with Isn’t It Romantic. On the positive side, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World should earn more than the three new wide releases from this weekend last year. On the negative side, Black Panther remained in top spot with closer to $120 million. 2019 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison, again, but at least it won’t be as bad as last week was. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Alita Battles Disbelievers and Wins

February 20th, 2019

The weekend wasn’t as bad as it could have been, at least not at the top. Alita: Battle Angel topped all but the most bullish expectations with $42.25 million from Thursday through Sunday. Isn’t It Romantic matched expectations nearly perfectly, while Happy Death Day 2U struggled, but should still break even, eventually. Overall, the box office rose 8.4% from last weekend, but plummet 57% from the same weekend last year. On the positive side, that was the weekend Black Panther debuted, so we knew a drop-off like this was to be expected. On the negative side, as of the end of business on Monday, 2019 was behind 2018’s pace by a margin of over $350 million or nearly 23%. 2019 will need to turn things around soon if it wants any chance of completing a comeback. Hell, it will need to turn things around soon if it wants any chance to avoid a worst-in-a-decade end result. More...

Weekend Estimates: Alita Wins Battle for Top Spot, but Production Budget is Winning the War

February 17th, 2019

Alita: Battle Angel is topping the weekend chart with an estimated $27.8 million over the three-day weekend and $33.0 million over four. Adding in Thursday’s result gives us a total opening of $41.7 million, which is more than we predicted and we were already a little more bullish than most. Its reviews were bouncing above then sinking below the overall positive level throughout the week, but they seem to have settled on the south side at 58% positive. We won’t get the CinemaScore until Monday, but I suspect it will be substantially better than this and be in the B plus / A minus range. We don’t have solid numbers for its international weekend, but estimates have it in the $40 million range during its second weekend of release. This would have been a great run so far, had the film not cost so much to make. More...

Friday Estimates: Alita Battles it’s Way to the Top

February 16th, 2019

Alita: Battle Angel started strong on Thursday with $8.72 million and held on well on Friday down just 14% to $7.53 million. Granted, this was the worst decline of the three new releases, but it was also the only one to open on Thursday, so I think this is a strong showing. The reviews remain right on the edge of the overall positive level, so it should have acceptable legs. Look for between $25 million and $26 million over the three-day weekend and $30 million over four. This would be a good start, if the film cost $100 million to make. However, with a budget between $160 million and $170 million, depending on tax breaks, even getting to $100 million domestically will just be saving face. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will there be a Lot of Love At the Box Office this week?

February 14th, 2019

It’s a very odd weekend at the box office. Not only is it a long weekend with most people having Monday off, but Valentine’s Day is Thursday and two of the three wide releases opened on Wednesday. The biggest new release is Alita: Battle Angel, but the film reportedly cost as much as $200 million to make and there’s a chance it will open with less than $20 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. Isn’t It Romantic should get the biggest boost thanks to Valentine’s Day. Meanwhile, Happy Death Day 2U is hoping to top the original. As for this weekend last year, it was the weekend Black Panther debuted. 2019 is going to get destroyed at the year-over-year comparison, again. If it loses by less than 50%, I will be happy. That’s how bad things have gotten. More...

Preview: February

February 1st, 2019

2019 got off to a slow start as the biggest release of January, Glass, missed expectations and as a result, 2019 lost every weekend in the year-over-year comparison. Unfortunately, 2019 isn’t going to turn things around this month, as last February, Black Panther broke all of the records. That doesn’t mean there are no bright spots this month. Both The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World are virtually guaranteed to reach $100 million domestically, while I wouldn’t be too surprised if one or both hit $200 million. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits, one of which could turn into a surprise $100 million hit. That said, there’s a chance all nine movies opening this month combined will earn less than Black Panther did last year. More...

Isn’t it Romantic Trailer

January 11th, 2019

Romantic comedy starring Rebel Wilson opens on February 14 ... Full Movie Details.

New York City architect Natalie works hard to get noticed at her job but is more likely to be asked to deliver coffee and bagels than to design the city’s next skyscraper. And if things weren’t bad enough, Natalie, a lifelong cynic when it comes to love, has an encounter with a mugger that renders her unconscious, waking to discover that her life has suddenly become her worst nightmare—a romantic comedy—and she is the leading lady. More...