Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for December 4th, 2018

December 4th, 2018

It’s not a bad week when it comes to the home market. The biggest release is Mission: Impossible—Fallout and while I didn’t like it as much as most critics, the Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD Combo Packs are still worth picking up. There were also a trio of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, all of which were TV on DVD release: The Handmaid’s Tale: Season Two, Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Take On Me, and Westworld: Season Two: The Door. In the end, it came down to a roll of the dice, with The Handmaid’s Tale coming out on top. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Halloween Fastest Horror Opening of 2018, Won’t have a Quiet Run

October 23rd, 2018

Halloween opened on the high end of expectations earning $76.22 million during its opening weekend. This tops The Nun’s previous best opening for a horror film released this year of $53.81 million. Both The Hate U Give and The Old Man and the Gun expanded into the top ten, which also helped the overall box office a little but. Speaking of the overall box office, it rose 21% from last weekend, hitting $165 million. More impressively, this was 72% higher than the same weekend last year. Normally, a year-over-year change this dramatic only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but this has been happening a lot this year. Year-to-date, 2018’s lead over 2017 climbed to $960 million or 11.3% at $9.39 billion to $8.44 billion. There’s no way this lead will remain this high at the end of the year, but it would take a serious collapse for 2018 to not finish with a higher total box office than 2017. More...

Friday Estimates: Halloween Closing in on Venom’s October Record

October 20th, 2018

Before the weekend began, people were asking if Halloween would top The Nun for biggest opening weekend for a horror film released this year. After Friday, no one is asking that question anymore, because the answer is obviously going to be yes. The film pulled in $33.34 million during its opening day, meaning it is within striking distance of Venom’s record for biggest October weekend. Venom earned $32.50 million during its opening day. Additionally, Halloween has 81% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, which is great for a horror film. On the other hand, horror films do tend to have shorter legs than comic book movies, so Halloween is essentially a coin-toss to break the record. Universal is going with $80.3 million, so we likely won’t know the answer until Monday when the final numbers show up. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Halloween tops The Nun, could Overtake Venom

October 19th, 2018

In order to match predictions, Halloween needed to at least match The Nun’s previews, while I would have preferred it top that film’s number by 10%. That means it needed to earn $5.4 million to $6.0 million for me to be satisfied it would match our $63 million prediction. It earned $7.7 million last night. Combine this with its reviews and it could break the October weekend record, set earlier this month by Venom, with just over $80 million, but $75 million is more likely. More...

Weekend Prediction: Will Halloween Scare The Nun Out of First Place?

October 18th, 2018

Right now, The Nun has the best opening for a horror film released this year with $53.81 million during its opening weekend. Most people think Halloween will top this, while some think it will crush this number. In fact, high end predictions have this film earning more than the top ten earned this weekend last year. It would need more than $75 million to get there, albeit not that much more to do so. That’s still asking a lot. The only other “new release” of the week is The Hate U Give, which is indeed expanding truly wide. However, it is unlikely to hit the top five. This weekend last year, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 earned first place with $21.23 million, while Geostorm was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than $21.23 million during its opening day and there could be as many as five films earning $10 million or more. Even if there is as few as three $10 million films, 2018 will still easily top last year’s box office number giving the year yet another win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Can None stop The Nun?

October 2nd, 2018

For the fourth weekend in a row, The Nun earned first place on the international chart. This past weekend, the film earned $16.4 million on 9,490 screens in 80 markets for totals of $220.2 million internationally and $329.2 million worldwide. There were no new markets this weekend, which explains the sharp decline from last week’s haul. That said, it remained in first place in France with $2.4 million on 367 screens for a two-week total of $7.6 million. The film is now the biggest hit in the franchise, both internationally and worldwide. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Wishing September Good Night

October 2nd, 2018

Overall, the weekend matched our predictions almost perfectly. All three new releases came within a rounding error of our prediction, if not better. This includes Night School, which led the way with $27.26 million during its opening weekend, while Smallfoot wasn’t too far behind with $23.05 million. Overall, the box office was 14% higher than last weekend at $105 million. This is also 16% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead over 2017 remained nearly identical this week at 9.0% / $720 million with $8.77 billion compared to $8.04 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Night School earns a Passing Grade with $28 million

September 30th, 2018

The weekend box office lived up to expectations, for the most part. Night School is projected to earn $28 million over the weekend, which almost matches its $29 million production budget. It would take tiny legs to fail to cover its production budget, which is unlikely. Granted, its reviews are only 31% positive, but it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so its target audience liked it a whole lot more than the critics did. Its international start wasn’t great at $5.5 million in 19 markets, but within expectations. It earned second place in the U.K. with $2.02 million in 452 theaters, as well as third place in Australia with $1.20 million on 198. More...

Estimates: Friday’s Numbers are a little on the Small(foot) Size

September 29th, 2018

New releases did well during previews, but returned to the levels we were predicting on Friday. Night School earned $9.5 million during its opening day, which isn’t enough to get to $30 million over the weekend, but it could be enough to match our $27 million prediction, or at least come within a rounding error of that figure. Audiences liked the movie more than critics did, as it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. Meanwhile, the film reportedly cost $29 million to make, so Universal should be happy with this result. More...

International Box Office: The Nun Completes Threepeat, Climbs Franchise Chart

September 25th, 2018

The Nun held on strongly repeating as the international box office champion with $35.0 million on 12,817 screens in 80 markets for totals of $192.1 million internationally and $292.7 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in France with $4.5 million on 348 screens and in Russia with $4.2 million on 1,847. On the other hand, it had to settle for fourth place in South Korea with $2.96 million on 824 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.28 million. It is no longer in last place for the franchise; in fact, it could be in second place by the weekend. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Clocking the Opposition

September 24th, 2018

As expected, The House with a Clock in its Walls topped the chart over the weekend. It was able to open faster than expected with $26.61 million. The other three films combined earned a fraction of that and A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million over the weekend. This caused the overall box office to fall 16% from last weekend to just $90 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year, which is a terrible margin. 2018 still has a massive 9.1% / $720 million lead over 2017 at $8.63 billion to $7.91 billion, so there’s no need to panic just yet. More...

Weekend Estimates: Clock Runs Fast, Other Openings Stumble

September 23rd, 2018

The House with a Clock in its Walls was the only new release to top expectations this weekend, and it is doing so with ease. The film will pull in a projected $26.85 million over the weekend, which is close to Goosebumps’s $28.87 million debut and is much better than predicted. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore suggest merely average legs, but this is still a great start for a film that cost $42 million to make. It is way too early to make a call on its international numbers, so I’m a little wary of calling this a financial hit just yet. It did open in first place in the Philippines with 602,000 in 195 theaters, but it only managed third place in Germany with $789,000 in 465. More...

Friday Estimates: Beating the Clock

September 22nd, 2018

The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only new release that opened well on Friday, with $7.82 million during its opening day. Its reviews are in the overall positive level and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore. This is nearly identical to Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and weaker than Goosebumps’ result. If this film has the same legs as Miss Peregrine, then it will earn $25 million during its opening weekend. That would be an amazing start for a film that cost $42 million to make and significantly better than we predicted. More...

Weekend Prediction: Countdown to the Weekend

September 20th, 2018

It’s a busier week than expected, as there are four films opening wide or semi-wide. The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only one with a shot at first place. In fact, it might be the only new release in the top five. Fahrenheit 11/9 could earn as much as $10 million, but it could also fail to reach the top five with $5 million. Life Itself is aiming even lower, but there’s an outside chance all things line up correctly and it earns a spot in the top five. On the other hand, Assassination Nation is opening semi-wide and it could miss the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened with nearly $40 million and two other films earned more than $20 million. This weekend, there might not be a single film with $20 million at the box office. More...

International Box Office: The Nun Wins Tight Race for Top Spot

September 19th, 2018

There was a close three-way race for top spot on the international chart, but The Nun was able to retain first place with $34.1 million on 12,107 screens in 62 markets for totals of $144.8 million internationally and $229.9 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market of the weekend was Belgium, where it made $1.42 million on just 86 screens. This was easily enough to earn first place there and was the biggest opening for the franchise. The film’s biggest holdover was in Brazil with $3.5 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $12.6 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Predator Tops Chart, Simple a Success

September 18th, 2018

The Predator earned top spot on the weekend box office chart with $24.63 million. However, the best new release was arguably A Simple Favor with $16.01 million, as it is the only film that will match its production budget at the domestic box office. On the other hand, White Boy Rick struggled and will likely not pay for its $30 million price-tag any time soon, while Unbroken: Path to Redemption bombed. Overall, the weekend box office was $107 million, 12% lower than last weekend. It was also down from this weekend last year, but only by 3.5%. That’s better than expected at the beginning of the month and that’s great news for 2018. Granted, its lead over 2017 went down, but it still has a 9.6% / $740 million lead with $8.50 billion compared to $7.76 billion in 2017. It would take something incredible to happen to lose this entire lead by the end of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Predator Misses Expectations, Still Tops Soft Weekend

September 16th, 2018

This isn’t a great weekend at the box office, as three of the four new releases are missing expectations, according to studio Sunday morning estimates, as well as the biggest holdover. The Predator will come out on top with $24.0 million over the weekend, but, while that’s not bad for a September release, there’s not a lot to be excited about either. Its reviews are just 34% positive, while it only managed a C plus from CinemaScore, both of which suggest short legs. It is way too early to tell how it will perform internationally, but it only managed fourth place in South Korea with a total opening of $1.2 million on 572 screens. That’s not good and the film needs to be a major hit outside of the domestic market if it is to break even any time soon. More...

Friday Estimates: Predator Tops Chart, Doesn’t Bag Biggest Catch

September 15th, 2018

The Predator missed expectations by a small margin with $10.45 million on Friday. It should earn about $26 million over the full weekend, which is below average for the franchise, if you take inflation into account. That’s close enough to our $28 million prediction that I’m satisfied. However, the film cost $88 million to make, so it needed a lot more than this to be a real financial success. Its reviews are just 34% positive, while it only earned C plus from CinemaScore, so it likely won’t have good legs. As for why this film isn’t connecting with audiences, there appears to have been a lot of studio interference. That rarely helps the final product. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Predator Begins its Hunt with $2.5 million

September 14th, 2018

The Predator started its box office run with $2.5 million during its Thursday previews. We can’t use any of the other films in the franchise as comparisons, because they opened way too long ago. We could use The Nun, which opened with $5.4 million last week and went on to earn nearly 10 times that during its opening weekend. This film should have slightly better legs, as it has slightly better reviews and action films tend to having slightly longer legs than horror films do. That said, our prediction of $28 million seems like a safe bet at this point. More...

Weekend Prediction: Not So Simply Weekend at the Box Office

September 13th, 2018

There are four films opening wide or semi-wide this weekend, which is one more than expected. Of these, only one movie, The Predator, has a real shot at top spot. Meanwhile, A Simple Favor is the only one of the four that is earning good reviews. White Boy Rick is opening truly wide, which is a bit of a surprise. Unbroken: Path to Redemption is the sequel to Unbroken, which earned over $100 million. No one is talking about this movie earning $100 million. This weekend last year, It remained on top with just a hair over $60 million. However, last year’s depth was really bad, so while I expect 2018 to lose in the year-over-year comparison, I don’t think it will be a major loss. More...

Theater Averages: To Infinity, or to the Top of the Chart, Whichever is Closer

September 13th, 2018

Kusama: Infinity led the way on the theater average chart with an impressive $15,499 in two theaters. This isn’t enough to think it will earn a real measure of mainstream success, but it is the latest success story in a year of documentary hits. The Nun was in second place with an average of $13,882. The Hows of Us had arguably the most impressive limited opening of the weekend, as it earned an average of $12,895, while playing in 38 theaters. More...

International Box Office: The Nun is Number One with $79.3 million

September 12th, 2018

The Nun topped the chart with $79.3 million on 15,835 screens in 60 markets for a global opening weekend of $133.1 million. This might be enough to give Warner Bros. a small amount of profit already. It depends on how much the studio will end up spending on advertising. The film’s biggest opening was in Mexico, where it earned $10.5 million on 3,967 screens. It also earned impressive first place debuts in Indonesia ($7.6 million on 1,289 screens); Brazil ($6.6 million on 1,235 screens); and India ($5.2 million on 1,603 screens). It earned first place in the U.K., but with $5.3 million on 593 screens, which is quite a bit weaker than its debut here, relative to the size of the two markets. This is also true of its first place, $2.7 million debut on 326 screens in Australia. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: The Nun Stuns, Box Office Still Falls

September 11th, 2018

The Nun topped expectations with $53.81 million over the weekend. Peppermint was well back in second place with $13.42 million, which is an acceptable debut for this time of year. Crazy Rich Asians was in a close third place and overall the box office was quite strong. The total box office was $121 million, which is 23% better than last weekend. Granted, this is 26% lower than the same weekend last year. Normally a drop this severe would be troubling, but this isn’t a normal situation. Firstly, this weekend last year was the weekend It debuted and rewrote the record book. Secondly, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by 10% or $770 million at $8.36 billion to $7.59 billion. This means 2018’s gains during the weekdays almost made up for its losses over the weekend. More...

Weekend Estimates: The Nun Continues WB’s Dominance of the Box Office

September 9th, 2018

The Nun topped expectations by a sizable margin with $53.5 million during its opening weekend. This is easily the best opening in the franchise so far and the best opening for a Warner Bros. film this year. The film also got off to a fast start internationally with $77.5 million on 15,615 screens in 60 markets. Its best markets were Mexico ($10.7 million on 3,967 screens) and Indonesia ($7.7 million on 1,216). At this point, the film is almost guaranteed a massive profit, despite is awful reviews and its mere C from CinemaScore. Even if it earns less during the rest of its run than it opened with, which is too pessimistic, it will still be a major financial success. There’s no way the franchise will end any time soon. More...

Friday Estimates: The Nun Breaks its Vow of Poverty with $22.37 million

September 8th, 2018

The Nun is crushing expectations with a $22.37 million opening Friday haul. I wasn’t expecting it to top $20 million on Friday, so this is great news. On the other hand, its reviews have continued to fall and are now at just 29% positive. Meanwhile, it only managed a C from CinemaScore, which is the worst in the franchise by far. (The two Conjuring movies both earned A minus, while the two Annabelle movies each earned a B score.) That said, this isn’t terrible for a horror movie and even terrible legs won’t put a damper on this debut, so Warner Bros. must be ecstatic about this result. More...

Thursday Night Previews: The Nun Conjures Up Franchise Best Previews at $5.4 million

September 7th, 2018

The Nun opened with $5.4 million during its previews. The previous best in the franchise was $4 million, earned by Annabelle: Creation. It’s is nearly impossible to compare the two films, as Annabelle: Creation was a summer release and its reviews were much better than The Nun’s reviews were, but even if this film has much shorter legs, it should top our $45 million prediction. It has a good shot at $50 million over the weekend. More...

Weekend Prediction: Will The Nun be Second to None?

September 6th, 2018

It’s the weekend after Labor Day, which is historically one of the worst weekends of the year at the box office. However, that’s not the case this year, as The Nun is expected to be a major hit. In fact, it should have the best opening in the franchise so far. On the other hand, Peppermint will be happy with a second place debut. Finally, God Bless the Broken Road is opening semi-wide, but the box office lacks any real depth, so it could come close to the top five. This weekend last year was the weekend It destroyed the record book. There’s no way 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but 2018 has such a large lead over 2017 that even a few embarrassing losses won’t put a serious dent into it’s advantage. More...

2018 Preview: September

September 1st, 2018

Overall, August was a little better than expected. Granted, there were no monster hits, but Warner Bros. had two $100 million hits in The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin will come close enough to that milestone to be a hit. This allowed 2018 to stretch its lead over 2017 by over $700 million. Will that lead grow in September? Nope. Not even close. There are three major problems that will hurt September’s box office. Firstly, there are a lot of films that may or may not open wide. Secondly, there are no films opening this month that have a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million. Finally... It. It destroyed records last September, earning more during its opening weekend than any film opening this month will earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has such an enormous lead that even with It, 2018 should remain ahead of 2107 by $500 million at the end of the month. More...

The Nun Trailer

August 11th, 2018

Supernatural horror movie opens September 7 ... Full Movie Details. More...