May 8th, 2018
It is a terrible week on the home market. Of the new releases getting full mentions, only two of them would be included in an average week, while most of the rest would be relegated to Secondary Blu-ray releases. Why is it so bad this week? Because Black Panther is coming out on Video on Demand and it is scaring away all of the competition. Fortunately, it is the Pick of the Week, but I would wait for the DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack to come out next week to buy it. The next best option is Gun Crazy on Blu-ray.
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February 19th, 2018
Disney posted updated weekend projections for Black Panther this morning, and if your jaw was dropped already, it’s time to pick it up and drop it again. The film’s box office fell just 9% on Sunday to an estimated $60.096 million, giving it the second-best Sunday in box office history, just fractionally behind The Force Awakens’ $60.553 million. That pushes Panther’s three-day opening weekend to an estimated $201.797 million, making it the fifth film in history to top $200 million on opening weekend.
There are a couple of other telling statistics that reveal just how strongly the film is performing…
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February 18th, 2018
Black Panther is riding a waving of positive feedback all the way to record territory this weekend, with Disney projecting a $192 million three-day, and $218 million four-day weekend, as of Sunday morning. That gives the film three outright records right off the bat: biggest weekend in February, biggest three-day Presidents Day weekend, and biggest four-day Presidents Day weekend. In each case, the film is topping the jaw-dropping-at-the-time opening of Deadpool in 2016.
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February 13th, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed topped our prediction by a tiny margin earning first place over the weekend with $38.56 million. Peter Rabbit also beat expectations with $25.01 million. Then there’s The 15:17 to Paris. Overall, the box office rocketed up 49% from last weekend to $140 million. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough to compete with this weekend last year, as 2018 was 26% lower. That sounds devastating, but remember, there is a misalignment in holidays, so next weekend 2018 will bounce back. Likewise, because of the misalignment in holidays, the year-to-date comparison isn’t particularly useful. 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by 5.0% or $65 million at $1.22 billion to $1.28 billion. However, by this time next week, that entire deficit could be erased.
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February 11th, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed caps the Shades franchise this weekend with a solid $38.805 million debut, according to Universal’s weekend estimate. That’s down from Fifty Shades Darker’s $46.6 million opening, but nowhere near the drop between the first and second movies—Fifty Shades of Grey came out the gate with $85 million back in 2015, although it was helped by Valentine’s Day falling on Saturday.
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February 10th, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed dominated the box office on Friday, earning $18.5 million. This is 14% lower than Fifty Shades Darker earned during its opening day. The two films should have similar legs, as they have similar reviews and both films earned B pluses from CinemaScore. Plug the numbers into that equation and we get an opening weekend of a little more than $40 million, enough to put it on pace for $100 million domestically.
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February 9th, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed got off to a fantastic start with $5.6 million from its previews on Thursday. This is nearly identical to the $5.72 million earned by Fifty Shades Darker. Add in the slight improvement in Tomatometer scores and I think we might have been a little pessimistic in our prediction. We will get a better idea where the film is at tomorrow, but for now, I’m bumping our prediction from $38 million to $42 million.
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February 8th, 2018
This weekend the Fifty Shades franchise is expected to surpass $1 billion in total worldwide box office with the release of the final installment, Fifty Shades Freed. All that income comes from films with an estimated combined budget for all three films of $150 million. The last time Hollywood saw this kind of success with an erotic drama/thriller, it created an entire subgenre that ate its way all through the 90s. Yet, after this year, it seems Valentine’s Day weekend will be left without a Fifty Shades replacement. So why the hesitancy from Hollywood to step up to the challenge this time?
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February 8th, 2018
As the weekend approaches, there’s only one film that everyone is talking about: Black Panther. The film’s reviews are nearly 100% positive and Fandango announced its presales are the best for any pre-summer release. Unfortunately, it doesn’t open until next weekend. This week we have to settle for Fifty Shades Freed, Peter Rabbit, and The 15:17 to Paris. Fifty Shades Freed is widely expected to be the biggest hit released in 2018, at least so far. On the other hand, its reviews and the Fangirl Effect strongly suggest very short legs. Peter Rabbit is a family film and even though it has direct competition next weekend, it should have the best legs on this week’s list. Finally there’s The 15:17 to Paris, which is not living up to expectations with critics and this will likely hurt its box office chances. This weekend last year was Presidents Day long Weekend. 2018 is going to get absolutely destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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February 1st, 2018
2018 got off to a good start and January more or less held its ground when compared to 2017. There were some misses, but surprise holdovers made up the difference. Looking forward, February will be dominated by Black Panther. In fact, it will very likely make more during its opening weekend than the second place film, Fifty Shades Freed, will likely make in total. Black Panther likely won’t break records, but it could come close, while Fifty Shade Freed and Peter Rabbit both have a 50/50 shot at $100 million. Last February, The Lego Batman Movie both earned $175 million, while Fifty Shades Darker earned over $100 million. Black Panther will easily beat any film from last February; in fact, it could earn more than the top two films earned combined. As long as the rest of the box office isn’t a complete disaster, February should help 2018 earn a significant edge over 2017 in the year-over-year comparisons.
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May 10th, 2017
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It’s not a good week for top-notch releases. Fifty Shades Darker is the biggest new DVD / Blu-ray release of the week, but it is far from the best. Get Out is clearly the best new release on this week’s list, but while it is the Pick of the Week, it is only coming out on Video on Demand and I would wait for the Blu-ray. Meanwhile we have another Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release. Those are usually rare, but we’ve have a streak of them recently. This week it’s The Void, which is great, but only coming out on DVD.
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February 1st, 2017
January turned out to be a good month. Granted, it didn’t live up to last January, but its box office was one of the top five Januarys of all time, so that’s still a good start to the year. Also, we will have our first $100 million movie released in 2017 and that doesn’t happen this early very often. As for February, there’s potentially the first $200 million hit of the year, The Lego Batman Movie. Fifty Shades Darker and The Great Wall both have a shot at $100 million. That said, it is more likely that both will miss that milestone than both will get there. As for the rest of the films, there are a few that are aiming for solid midlevel hits, like John Wick: Chapter Two and Get Out, while there are very few potential bombs. By comparison, last February there was one monster hit, Deadpool, and a lot of bombs. No other movie besides Deadpool made $50 million. No movie opening this month will match Deadpool, but we won’t have as many bombs either, so hopefully that will balance out and 2017 won’t fall further behind 2016.
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