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Weekend Estimates: American Sniper Wins Super Bowl Weekend

February 1st, 2015

American Sniper poster

With only some relatively lightweight competition, American Sniper will cruise to another weekend win, with Warner Bros. projecting a $31.85m weekend, down 51% from last weekend thanks to an expected steep decline on Super Bowl Sunday. Without the big football game, the film would most likely be down closer to 40% in its third weekend in limited release.

Paddington rises to a moderately surprising second place this weekend, with its 31% fall in its third weekend enough to keep it above Project Almanac, according to projections, with $8.505 million just topping $8.500 million.

Almanac tops the openers this weekend in absolute dollars, but Black or White will have a better theater average at $3,500 or so. Its relatively limited distribution in 1,823 theaters keeps its projected box office down to $6.456 million.

The most notable theater average this weekend is the $7,300 being enjoyed by Game of Thrones: The IMAX Experience, which will post around $1.5 million from 205 theaters. Putting TV in movie theaters isn't new (Doctor Who had a 50th anniversary special screening last year for example), but the financial success of this experiment will encourage further releases for major series. In fact, this was a big weekend all round for special event screenings, with The Met's latest opera event generating around $1 million and another couple of hundred thousand dollars being earned by UFC 183: Silva vs. Diaz. Digital distribution is changing the market in interesting ways.

The stars in limited release this weekend are Oscar nominee Timbuktu, with around $50,000 expected from four theaters, China Lion's Running Man will also be in the $10,000 club with $205,000 from 20 theaters.

- Weekend Estimates

Bruce Nash bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Project Almanac, Paddington, Black or White, American Sniper, Timbuktu, Game of Thrones: The IMAX Experience