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Weekend Predictions: Are the New Releases Terrible, Horrible, No Good, and Very Bad?

October 9th, 2014

Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day poster

This weekend there are four new wide releases; however, none of them are expected to be big hits. In fact, Gone Girl is widely expected to repeat in first place, while Annabelle might have a shot at second place. Three of the new releases will likely finish in the midteens with Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day currently on track to become the best of the bad bunch of new films. The Judge has taken a huge tumble as far as analysts are concerned. Dracula Untold is in the mix and might earn second place, but it might also earn fifth. Regardless, it won't do well enough for a film that cost $100 million to make. Then there's Addicted, a movie whose buzz is so quiet I forgot it was opening this week. This weekend last year, Gravity again led the way with $43.19 million, while Captain Phillips opened in second place with $25.72 million. There's no chance any film will match Gravity. In fact, the top film this week will very likely be behind Captain Phillips. On the other hand, last year only one other film earned more than $4 million, so the depth was terrible. I think the depth this week should be enough to eke out a win.

Gone Girl should hold on very well at the box office thanks to its reviews and David Fincher's historical norms. His films rarely open huge and then disappear the next weekend. A sub-50% drop-off is expected, which would give it $19 million during its sophomore stint. While at the high end, it could earn as much as $25 million, which would put it a week away from $100 million. I'm not that bullish, but I do think the higher end is more likely than the lower end and I'm going with a prediction of $23 million.

On the other hand, Annabelle earned terrible reviews and horror movies rarely hold on well. A 60% decline would leave the film with just under $15 million, which might still be enough for second place. I think it will perform just a little bit better earning just over $16 million over the weekend. This will still give the film more than enough money to break even.

Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day should land in third place, but there's some uncertainty here. The reviews have slipped below the overall positive level, but they are still much higher than the other new releases. Additionally, there's not a lot of direct competition, as The Boxtrolls is about to be knocked out of the top five. On the high end, it could earn second place with $17 million. On the low end, it could struggle to earn $13 million. I'm a little on the bullish side, but I don't think third place with just under $16 million is a difficult goal to reach.

We have some international numbers for Dracula Untold and the film earned mixed results. It was a big hit in Mexico, but struggled in the U.K. I think the U.K. numbers are going to be more comparable to its debut here, which would give the film a $15 million opening here. However, some think it will be a surprise hit earning first place with $25 million or more. I just don't see that happening. The buzz isn't great, while the reviews are terrible. Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic, but $15 million seems like a fair prediction.

Critics are praising the cast of The Judge, but are also ripping the film for the sheer number of clichés. Unfortunately for the film, the film's target audience is more mature than the other three wide releases, so they are more likely to read and be swayed by reviews. Additionally, the buzz hasn't grown, which means its box office potential has shrunk. There is a little bit of good news, namely the logjam at the box office. Predictions are as low as $12 million, which would leave it in fifth place. However, if things fall into place just right, it could win second place with just over $17 million. That said, the lower end does seem more likely and I'm predicting $14 million and fifth place.

Addicted is the final wide release of the week, although the number of theaters is estimated at below 1,000. If this is true, then it has no chance at box office success. Even if it is opening in more than 2,000 theaters, there is no buzz and no reviews, so a spot in the top five is really unlikely. If it is opening in just 800 theaters, it might not reach the top ten. I'm going to be a little more optimistic and I'm going with a $4 million opening, but that's hardly a reason to celebrate.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Dracula Untold, The Boxtrolls, Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, The Judge, Addicted, Gone Girl, Annabelle, David Fincher