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Weekend Estimates: Ouija Tops Wick

October 26th, 2014

Ouija poster

Teen horror movie Ouija will win this weekend at the box office with a solid $20 million debut and $7,000 theater average. With a budget reported at just $5 million, the movie is a sure-fire money maker for Universal, even with a shelf life of exactly eight days. By comparison, John Wick, which marks a return to form for Keanu Reeves, should have a longer run, based on its current reviews and word of mouth, but will have some ground to make up after opening with around $14 million.

This weekend sees several films post solid numbers on return. Fury will be off 45% to $13 million in its second weekend in release, which is a respectable figure in this day and age. Gone Girl is set to decline 37% to $11.1 million in its fourth weekend, and The Book of Life will be down 42% to $9.8 million in its sophomore weekend. Those films fill slots three to five on the chart, ahead of indie cross-over St. Vincent, which is projected to earn $8.058 million from 2,282 theaters. That’s a decent performance from a very wide distribution for a film like this (The Grand Budapest Hotel, by way of comparison, topped out in 1,467 theaters), but its average of $3,500 suggests it will go no wider.

St. Vincent got out ahead of the Awards Season crowd a little, and there’s an increasing logjam of specialty releases behind it.

Birdman is clearly the film to watch at this point, and will earn about $1.4 million from 50 theaters this weekend, for an average around $28,700 in its second weekend. Documentary CitizenFour has the next-highest theater average thanks to a projected $115,200 start in five theaters. Making less of a splash, but still pulling in good numbers, Laggies will post around $75,000 from six theaters for a $12,500 average. At this point, Birdman looks a hot favorite for awards nominations, and CitizenFour is an excellent bet for a Best Documentary nod. Laggies, which is getting decent reviews, looks like it will get lost in the crowd as far as awards are concerned, but would make for an amiable night out at the movies nonetheless.

- Weekend Estimates

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, St. Vincent, Ouija, The Book of Life, Fury, Gone Girl, Laggies, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), John Wick, CitizenFour, Keanu Reeves