Follow us on

Weekend Predictions: Thanksgiving Means Leftovers

November 27th, 2014

The Penguins of Madagascar poster

It's Thanksgiving weekend and there are two films trying to take advantage of the boost to the box office. Penguins of Madagascar looks like it will top Horrible Bosses 2 at the box office, but neither really have a shot at dethroning The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 for top spot. In fact, it is possible both of them combined won't top last year's number one new release, Frozen. Additionally, Mockingjay, Part 1 very likely won't match Catching Fire by a significant margin, so November will end the month on a down note.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 opened with $121.90 million during its opening weekend. This is the best opening of the year, but about $30 million below average expectations.Catching Fire fell 53% during its sophomore stint and the evidence suggests Mockingjay, Part 1 will do the same. Its reviews are weaker, but its internal multiplier and its midweek numbers are nearly as strong. I'm going with $55 million over the three-day weekend and $80 million over five. It will cross $200 million over the weekend and it is on pace for over $300 million.

Penguins of Madagascar is the latest installment of the Madagascar franchise. Its reviews are very good and better than the average for the franchise. On the other hand, they are not as good as Big Hero 6's reviews are, so that might hurt it a little at the box office. Look for a five-day opening of just over $55 million and just under $40 million over the three-day period.

Earlier in the week, Horrible Bosses 2's reviews were at just 11% positive. They have since improved, but sit at just 35%. This is way below its predecessor's reviews were. On the other hand, they are better than Dumb and Dumber To's reviews are, so perhaps that will help it at the box office at least a little bit. Dumb and Dumber To opened with $36.11 million and it looks like Horrible Bosses 2 will top that, but only over the five-day weekend. Look for $25 million over the weekend and $37 million in total. This is probably close to what the film cost to make, so the studio should be happy with the result.

Big Hero 6 will be next with $18 million / $26 million. This is nearly identical to what Wreck-It Ralph managed during the same point in its run, which is good news for Big Hero 6's chances at $200 million.

Interstellar will round out the top five with $12 million / $18 million. It is below expectations at the box office, but will break even before the home market.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Interstellar, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1, Penguins of Madagascar, Big Hero 6, Horrible Bosses 2, Dumb and Dumber To, Madagascar