Weekend Predictions: Will the Box Office Warm Up?
January 31st, 2013
February begins with two wide releases, Warm Bodies and Bullet to the Head. Both will have to deal with holdovers, and more importantly, The Super Bowl. Bullet to the Head's target audience is nearly identical to that for the Super Bowl, while at least Warm Bodies has at least some chance of a breakout success. Last year there were three wide releases, two of which opened with more than $20 million. It is going to be almost impossible for 2013 to match that result.
Warm Bodies is the latest zombie film to come out, and there have been a lot of those over the years. This one does have an interesting twist, as it focuses on a zombie, named R, he can't remember his old name, who falls in love with a woman, Teresa Palmer, and this love cures him of being a zombie. It's an interesting premise and the reviews are good. They are not as good as they were earlier in the week, but still good enough to help its word of mouth. It is also the wider of the two new releases and it should have no problem earning first place, mainly because it will likely be the only film to earn more than $10 million over the weekend. It might even make more than $20 million over the weekend, but $19 million is a safer prediction.
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters should hold on well enough to earn second place with $9 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $34 million. This is not good for a film that cost $60 million to make (and likely another $20 million to $30 million to advertise) but it is performing better internationally, so it might still break even in the end.
Bullet to the Head is earning reviews that are neither good nor terrible. A Tomatometer Score of 43% positive is perfectly acceptable for an action film. It stars Sylvester Stallone, who is one of the most famous action stars of all time, and it is directed by Walter Hill, who has made some amazing films over his career. Unfortunately, the buzz just isn't where is needs to be. It might earn second place with just over $9 million, but it could miss the top five with just under $6 million. I'm going with third place and $8 million, but there will be a large group in that area.
Silver Linings Playbook has shown some incredible legs over the past few weeks and should have the best hold in the top five again. This film should add $7 million over the weekend for a running tally of $79 million. It still as a shot at the century mark.
Mama should round out the top five with $6 million over the weekend for a total of $57 million after three weeks of release. This is a solid hit for a January release and the studio should be very happy.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Warm Bodies, Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters, Bullet to the Head, Silver Linings Playbook, Mama