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2013 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actor

February 21st, 2013

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Supporting Actor. This category is more competitive than Best Supporting Actress, but even so, it is mostly a two horse race.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting.)

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin for Argo
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: One Golden Globe and Two SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: One SAG
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, Four Golden Globe, Two SAG, and Two Independent Spirit Awards
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, One SAG, and One Independent Spirit Award
Notes: Argo has been cleaning up during Awards season and there is a chance Alan Arkin will be caught up in a wave on Oscar night. It's not a good chance, but one can't dismiss it entirely.

Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Tomatometer Score: 92% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Six Oscars, Eight Golden Globe, and One SAG
Actor's Previous Major Wins: Two Oscars and One Golden Globe
Notes: It has been more than 30 years since Robert De Niro won an Oscar and while that can sometimes help an actor win, the buzz just isn't there. He hasn't won a major award for this performance and he wasn't even nominated for a Golden Globe or an Independent Spirit Award. That makes him a rather big long shot.

Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Tomatometer Score: 86% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: One Golden Globe and One SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, Four Golden Globe, Eight SAG, and Four Independent Spirit Awards
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, One SAG, and Three Independent Spirit Awards
Notes: Like I previously said, The Master hasn't lived up to its pre-release buzz and even though it has earned a large number of award nominations, it hasn't been able to convert many of them into wins. I don't think Philip Seymour Hoffman will buck that trend.

Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Tomatometer Score: 89% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: One Golden Globe and One SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: One SAG
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, Two Golden Globes, Two SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, and One SAG
Notes: Lincoln was thought by many to be the major player for this Awards Season. While it has picked up a huge number of nominations, it has only been able to convert some of these into wins. This includes one for Tommy Lee Jones at the SAGs, which is a good indicator for the Oscars. At the very least, he's even money.

Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained
Tomatometer Score: 89% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: One Golden Globe
Movie's Previous Major Wins: One Golden Globe
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, and Two SAG
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, and Two SAG
Notes: This film earned some of the best buzz during Awards Season; however, it was equal parts critical and box office buzz. Of the five films on this list, Django Unchained had the best shot at earning $100 million. On the other hand, it hasn't been the best at picking up major wins. Christoph Waltz did earn the Golden Globe for his performance, so you can't really call him an underdog. On the other hand, the SAG is a better predictor and he recently won an Oscar, so he's not the favorite either.

Conclusion: This is a two horse race between Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz. If either man wins, I won't be truly surprised, but Tommy Lee Jones has the edge.


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Filed under: Awards Season, Django Unchained, Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, The Master, Saving Lincoln, Robert De Niro, Alan Arkin, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones, Christoph Waltz