Follow us on

2013 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Original Screenplay

February 21st, 2013

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, finishing with Best Original Screenplay. There are actually three films that could win that and it wouldn't be a total shock if they did. That said, there is still a favorite to contend with.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for writing and not other categories. Also, for writing teams, they are combined totals with each film counting as one nomination regardless of how many members were part of the previous team.)

Best Original Screenplay

Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom
Tomatometer Score: 94% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, WGA, and Independent Spirit Awards
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None (One Pending)
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar and One WGA
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: I really want this film to win. I really think it is Wes Anderson's best movie. That said, it is still a major long shot. Maybe it isn't the longest of the long shots, but it is close.

Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty
Tomatometer Score: 94% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: WGA
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, and One WGA
Writer's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar and One WGA
Notes: For a long time, Zero Dark Thirty was seen as perhaps the big winner on Oscar night. That seems unlikely know, especially since Kathryn Bigelow was snubbed for Best Director. It still has a chance to win here, but it is not the favorite. If it does win, it won't be a major upset, on the other hand.

John Gatins for Flight
Tomatometer Score: 78% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Writer's Previous Previous Major Nominations: None
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Not to be too blunt, but I'm really surprised this film was even nominated for Best Original Screenplay. I was expecting The Master to get the nod instead. It did pick up a WGA nomination, but 78% positive isn't Oscar-worthy.

Michael Haneke for Amour
Tomatometer Score: 93% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: None
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: None
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This film is a long shot to win this award, but it is a long shot with a shot. If enough Oscar voters think this film deserves more than just the Best Foreign Language Film, then this is the award they are most likely to give it. Its reviews do suggest it deserves more recognition, so it is not outrageous to make this prediction, if you are entering our contest. It is a little riskier than going with the favorite, on the other hand.

Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
Tomatometer Score: 89% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globe
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: Two Oscars, Two Golden Globes, and One Independent Spirit Award
Writer's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, and One Independent Spirit Award
Notes: Most people think that Quentin Tarantino will win his second Oscar this year picking it up for Best Original Screenplay for Django Unchained. There is certainly a lot of evidence to support this, including the Golden Globe win. On the other hand, he wasn't even nominated for a WGA. Then again, he wasn't nominated for a WGA back in 1995, but he still won the Oscar for Pulp Fiction that year. I think precedent is enough to call it the favorite.

Conclusion: I think Quentin Tarantino will win for Django Unchained, while if Mark Boal won for Zero Dark Thirty, it wouldn't be a true upset. If you are looking for an upset that could happen, pick Michael Haneke for Amour.


-

Filed under: Awards Season, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, The Master, Flight, Amour, Wes Anderson, Kathryn Bigelow, John Gatins, Quentin Tarantino, Mark Boal, Michael Haneke