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Weekend Predictions: Will The Box Office Come Back from the Dead?

April 4th, 2013

There are no truly absolutely new releases this weekend. That's not to say there's nothing sort of new to check out. The Evil Dead remake is coming out and its buzz is growing louder than I was expecting. It could be a surprisingly strong release. Also, Jurassic Park 3D re-release is coming out, and while its buzz is much lower, it should still earn as much as it cost to convert into 3D during its opening weekend, or at least come close. This weekend last year, American Reunion debuted with disappointing numbers earning second place while Titanic's 3D re-release did relatively well placing third. I think the combined opening weekend of the two new releases this year will top those from last year. Unfortunately, last year The Hunger Games led the way and that will be enough to keep 2013 behind 2012 in the year-over-year comparison for yet another weekend.

The original Evil Dead is 30 years old, so most people in the target demographic for Evil Dead were not born when the original came out. That said, the original has been released on the home market an estimated 14 million times, so it is well known among even the new horror fans. The new version is a grittier take on the original, which was probably for the best, as keeping too close in tone to the original would hurt its box office chances. Fortunately, the reviews are good, although they have been slipping, and horror fans looking for violence and gore should be satisfied. (Those looking for more humor should look elsewhere, on the other hand.) On the high end, it could top $30 million over the weekend. Most think it will top $25 million. I'm going with $26 million, which is a great start for a horror film that reportedly cost just $15 million to make.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation started out surprisingly well, but given its reviews and the Sequel Effect, it will likely fall quite far this weekend. It was a Thursday release, which will mitigate some of the decline, but falling just over 50% to just under $20 million seems likely. That will keep it on pace to reach $100 million, although it might drop out of the top five before it does so.

After becoming just the third film of 2013 to reach $100 million, The Croods should earn third place with $18 million. This will push its running tally to just over $120 million, which is enough to assume it will be profitable, eventually. If it can continue to do well domestically for a few more weeks and assuming it does the same internationally, it will break even during its initial push into the home market.

Last year, Titanic's 3D re-release opened with just over $17 million. I think Jurassic Park will be more or less in the same ballpark. 3D re-releases have lost a lot of their box office power in just a few years, which will hurt Jurassic Park. However, Jurassic Park is a much more action oriented film, which would make the 3D adaptation a lot more interesting. It also has at least a little buzz from Jurassic Park IV to work with. I think just over $16 million is a safe bet, which is probably more than it cost to convert to 3D.

Tyler Perry's Temptation should round out the top five with just under $9 million for the weekend and close to $40 million after two. This is likely more than it cost to make, so the film is on its way to profitability.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Jurassic Park, The Croods, Evil Dead, G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Tyler Perry's Temptation, Tyler Perry