Follow us on

Weekend Predictions: How Great Will the New Releases Be?

May 9th, 2013

Summer got off to a fantastic start last weekend, but sadly it is not going to continue this weekend. Neither The Great Gatsby nor Peeples have blockbuster potential. In fact, the pair combined won't match Iron Man 3's sophomore stint. This is similar to what happened last year, as Dark Shadows got crushed by The Avengers, which broke yet another record. Iron Man 3 won't be able to do the same this year, but we could have better depth. I'm not saying 2013 will win the weekend, but it won't as bad as it has been either.

Iron Man 3 has already earned $200 million, getting to that milestone in just six days. Worldwide, it has made enough to break even, and then some. Its sophomore stint could be a little anticlimactic as a result. Best case scenario has it falling roughly 50% to close to $90 million. The worst case scenario has the film plummeting more than 60% to under $70 million. The lower end is probably more likely, despite its good reviews, as the Fanboy Effect will hit it hard. That said, $75 million isn't a small amount and the studio should be more than happy with that figure.

At the beginning of the month, I thought The Great Gatsby was a potential $100 million movie. However, that's before I saw the reviews. Most critics are complaining that Baz Luhrmann's style clashes with F. Scott Fitzgerald's original story, which kills its heart. Not every critic is as harsh as that, but the overall reviews are low enough that even fans of Baz Luhrmann might be put off the opening weekend. It likely will still do relatively well with $34 million and will finish with $75 million or so.

Peeples is a troubling film to predict. On the one hand, it has Tyler Perry's name attached to it, which means something to quite a few people. On the other hand, his non-Madea movies have not done particularly well in the past few years, and he's only the producer here. The reviews are only mixed, but that's inline with expectations. It could surprise and earn just over $20 million, but there are also some who think it will make less than $10 million. I'm a little more bullish that most and I'm going with $18 million.

The rest of the top five is a mere afterthought at this point. Pain and Gain should add close to $4 million to its running tally, which will be pushed past $40 million by the end of the weekend.

42 should finish in fifth place with $3.5 million. However, The Croods could place fifth, as it will be very close behind with just over $3 million.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Croods, The Great Gatsby, Iron Man 3, Pain & Gain, Peeples, 42, Madea, Baz Luhrmann, Tyler Perry, F. Scott Fitzgerald