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Weekend Predictions: Will Star Trek Brighten Up the Box Office?

May 16th, 2013

The second big summer release comes out this week, Star Trek into Darkness. The film has already opened internationally and has proven to be a bigger hit than its predecessor was, which is good news for its opening weekend. Iron Man 3 will likely take a pretty big hit due to the direct competition, while The Great Gatsby is a bit of a wild card. This weekend last year there were three wide releases, but the best of them was Battleship, which only made $25.53 million during its opening weekend, while all three new releases made a total of $53 million. Star Trek into Darkness should easily make more than that combined. However, The Avengers still dominated the chart last year and it will be that film that will be the biggest challenge in the year-over-year competition.

Star Trek into Darkness has already opened internationally and has won over a lot of fans overseas. It has also won over a lot of critics. Its reviews are a little lower than Star Trek's reviews were, but still absolutely amazing, especially for a summer blockbuster film. Its box office prospects are stronger than its predecessor's were and there is a chance it will top $100 million over the weekend. It's a slim chance, since the film is opening on Thursday, but there's still a chance. On the low end, the film might earn $20 million on Thursday and $70 million over the weekend. On the high end, the film could earn $40 million on Thursday and just over $100 million over the weekend. I'm a little more bullish than most with predictions of $35 million on Thursday and $95 million over the weekend.

Iron Man 3 will hit $300 million tonight in its 14th day of release. That makes it the 4th fastest film to $300 million, tied with Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. This weekend, its box office will very likely be sliced in half, as it is dealing with direct competition. It should still managed over $30 million over the weekend, maybe even $35 million. This leaves $400 million as a possibility, but not a sure thing.

The Great Gatsby is hard to predict. The film climbed into first place on Wednesday and it doesn't have to deal with direct competition this weekend. On the other hand, the reviews were only mixed and Baz Luhrmann might be one of those directors with a Fanboy presence. Maybe it won't fall more than 50% during its sophomore stint, but I think it will. In fact, it could fall all the way to just $20 million. I'm going with $24 million to be safe.

After the top three films, there's almost nothing to talk about. 42 should land in fourth place with $3 million, while there are a handful of films that should earn between $2 million and $3 million: The Croods, Pain and Gain, Peeples, and Mud.


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Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Croods, Star Trek Into Darkness, The Great Gatsby, Iron Man 3, Pain & Gain, Peeples, 42, Mud, Baz Luhrmann