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Weekend Predictions: Black and White

May 31st, 2012

Snow White and the Huntsman is the only new wide release of the weekend and it is looking to overthrow Men in Black 3 on the top of the chart. It should have a pretty easy time winning, if not, the box office is in serious trouble. It is more important to compare its opening to that of X-men: First Class, which opened this weekend last year. Asking Snow White to make $55 million is probably asking too much, while the holdovers won't be able to match last year's crop, so June will likely start off on a low note when compared to last year. After an amazing start to the year, 2012 is starting to really struggle. Hopefully it is just a minor bump in the road.

Snow White and the Huntsman takes the Snow White legend and gives the female lead a Joan of Arc makeover. The combination has the potential to really draw in moviegoers. Women could be interested to see a strong female character. Men could be interested for the medieval war action. Couples on dates could be interested in seeing the romance. It has something for nearly everyone. The film's reviews are exactly 50% positive, which is good enough for a summer blockbuster, but not so good that one would expect strong word-of-mouth. Look for $48 million over the weekend and $130 million in total. I am a little more bullish than most, so keep that in mind.

After a disappointing start, Men in Black 3 hopes to avoid a collapse during its second weekend of release. Its reviews are good, but not great. It has to deal with Sequelitis, which tends to cut a film's legs significantly. Worst case scenario has the film falling about 60% to $22 million, which wouldn't be enough for second place. It would still be enough to lift its running tally to $100 million over the weekend. Best case scenario is still falling close to 50%, which would give it about $28 million over the weekend. Split the difference and you get $25 million over the next three days and $107 million after ten.

The Avengers should add about $23 million over the weekend lifting its running tally to $555 million. That would put it ahead of The Dark Knight and into third place on the All-time chart. It probably won't get to $600 million, but it should get closer than almost everyone expected.

There should be a huge logjam for fourth place. Battleship, The Dictator, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Dark Shadows, What to Expect When Your Expecting, and Chernobyl Diaries should all make $4 million, plus or minus $1 million. I think they will finish in that order, but with so many films that close together, it is too close to call. In fact, studio estimates on Sunday might not clear things up.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Battleship, The Avengers, Dark Shadows, Men in Black 3, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Dictator, Snow White and the Huntsman, What to Expect When You're Expecting, Chernobyl Diaries