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Hop Jumps Higher Than Expected

April 4th, 2011

It was mostly a good news start to the month as the top film, Hop, beat expectations with ease and nearly became the fastest opening film of the year. Meanwhile, most of the rest of the top five at least came close to matching expectations. This helped the box office grow 3% from last weekend to $125 million. Unfortunately, this was nearly 30% lower than the same weekend last year. This means 2011 continues to lose ground on 2010 and it is now off last year's pace by just over 20% at $2.34 billion to $2.93 billion. Things need to turn around very soon.

Hop opened with $37.54 million over the weekend, which was about 50% more than a lot of analysts were expecting and within a rounding error of Rango's opening. That film will keep the top spot on the yearly chart in terms of opening weekend and total box office, at least for a while. Its reviews are bad, even for a kids movie, and with direct competition just a couple weeks away, it will need to keep most of its audience next weekend if it wants a shot at $100 million. Given Rango's performance, it shouldn't be too difficult to reach that milestones, but it won't get that much farther.

Despite earning the best reviews for any wide release so far this year, Source Code wasn't able to match Thursday's prediction. It did come relatively close with $14.81 million during its opening and it should top its production costs before too long, especially if its reviews translate into long legs. It won't be the best non-Twilight Summit release, but it will be a solid mid-level hit. On the other hand, that might be the upper limit for Jake Gyllenhaal as a leading man.

With a production budget of just $1 million, Insidious was practically guaranteed to be a financial success. However, its opening weekend of $13.27 million was significantly above expectations and enough to secure third place, whcih is a pleasant surprise. Reviews are good, but not great, and it will likely not have the same legs as Saw and especially not Paranormal Activity. That said, it is well on its way to profitability.

Diary of A Wimpy Kid: Rodick Rules was beaten up by direct competition falling nearly 60% to $10.04 million over the weekend for a total of $38.20 million after two. This is already twice what the film cost to make, so it should break even by its initial run on the home market.

Limitless was within a rounding error of Thursday's prediction with $9.31 million over the weekend and a total of $55.51 million after three. At this pace, it will make original expectations by this time next week.

Moving onto the sophomore class, we find Sucker Punch in seventh place with $6.02 million, which represents a decline of close to 70%. That's high any way you slice it, but the movie did have Fanboy written all over it, so it was not that unexpected.


Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Sucker Punch, Limitless, Insidious, Source Code, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules, Hop