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Wolverine Ready to Slice Up the Competition

May 1st, 2009

Summer is finally here, and everyone wants to know if 2009 can keep up its blazing pace. I'm going to say no, simply because the law of averages says the box office should return to the mean. That could start this weekend and last year's top film will be very tough to beat.

I'm having trouble coming up with anything new to talk about with Wolverine that I didn't mention in the monthly preview, which was just published. Reviews are disappointing, but the buzz is better than some suggested. An opening weekend of $100 million is possible, but just north of $90 million is more likely. It could potentially make more during the next three days than it makes during the rest of its run. However, a total box office of $200 million is the ultimate goal here.

Likewise, there's not much more that needs to be said about Ghosts of Girlfriends Past. Reviews are even worse, and are bad even for a genre that rarely pleases critics. It will live and die on the box office drawing power of its two stars, and while $100 million in total is likely out of the question, $75 million is not. It should start that journey this weekend with a second place, $25 million opening.

The only other film with a shot at $10 million or more is Obsessed, which will place third by default. The reviews are terrible and the competition is strong, which means a 60% drop-off is possible. It should avoid that fate, barely, earning just over $12 million over the weekend for a total of $48 million after two.

There should be quite a logjam for fourth place between 17 Again, Earth, The Soloist, Fighting, State of Play, and Monsters vs. Aliens. All six films should finish within a rounding error of $5 million over the weekend, with 17 Again and Earth having the best shot at repeating in the top five.

The only other new wide release of the week is Battle for Terra, but with a theater count of 1,159, it is hard to call this a truly wide release. Reviews are mixed, and without enough studio support backing it up, many analysts think it will miss the top ten with under $3 million over the weekend. In fact, it might make less than $1 million before quickly vanishing.


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Filed under: Monsters vs. Aliens, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Obsessed, 17 Again, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, State of Play, Earth, The Soloist, Fighting, Battle for Terra