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While there's no scientific basis for blaming Tryptophan for post-Thanksgiving dinner lethargy, there's ample evidence that the post-Thanksgiving weekend fills moviegoers with apathy. This weekend will be no different and despite there being four films that at least have a shot at placing in the top ten, none really have a shot at first place. That said, three of the four should top last year's number one new film and December should begin on a strong note.

After a surprisingly brisk opening, and a better than expected sophomore stint, it looks like The Blind Side will rise to the top of the chart this weekend. In fact, on Wednesday it was able to grab top spot away from New Moon, albeit by a tiny margin of less than $30,000. With better reviews and a more mature target audience, it should secure first place with just over $20 million over the weekend for a total of close to $130 million after three. At this pace, it should finish with between $175 million and $200 million, depending on how long it can last in theaters and how much of a boost it will get over Christmas.

New Moon will not hold on as well, and will likely fall to $18 million over the weekend, but that will still be enough to lift its running tally to $258 million. This is more than $60 million above the final domestic box office of Twilight, while it has a slim chance of reaching $300 million by the time its run is over.

We finally get to the first of the new releases, but there seems to be divided opinion on which film that will be. On the one hand, Armored is the easiest film to sell to moviegoers. However, Brothers is earning the best reviews. Finally, Everybody's Fine is opening in the most theaters.

Armored could have the best shot at third place, simply because it is targeting males from the mid-teens to mid-20s, which is the group that is most likely to go to the movies. It is also the group that is usually the least concerned with reviews, which is good because there are almost none of them. The movie does have a good cast and it could beat expectations with critics and earn overall positive reviews, but as long as its Tomatometer score is anywhere from 20% to 40% then it should earn just over $10 million over the weekend. Even if it just misses that mark, it could still grab third place, but it could be close.

The best-reviewed wide release of the week is Brothers, but at just 54% positive, it is hard to be too enthusiastic because it is the kind of film that is most dependent on good reviews to draw in moviegoers. And, with a focus on the after effects of war, it might not be the kind of film people want to check out at this time. Worst case scenario has the film missing the top five with under $5 million, but just over $9 million and fourth place is more likely.

Everybody's Fine could grab third place with $11 to $12 million; in fact, that's what I was thinking on Tuesday when we published our monthly preview. However, as some analysts have pointed out, Miramax recently shut down its New York office and its promotional budget has been slashed. This means the advertising campaign has not been as aggressive as it should have been, and many think it will struggle to make the top five with just $6 million over the weekend. I'm still hoping it will earn a spot in the top five with over $8 million, but if it struggles, either Old Dogs or 2012 will be there to take its place.

There is one final wide release of the week, but that's only if you stretch the definition of wide to nearly the breaking point. Transylmania is opening in just over 1,000 theaters, which is a bad sign. That might be a worse sign than its total lack of reviews. After all, the film's target audience is not the type that read reviews, but if this target audience can't find a theater nearby that's playing the movie, then there's no chance they can see it. Then again, this movie could be playing in every theater in North America and I think there would still be very few people who would watch it. Best case scenario has it earning close to $5 million, which would be enough for a spot low in the top ten. Worst case scenario has it missing the top ten, perhaps the top 20, with less than $1 million. I'm going with just under $2 million.

- C.S.Strowbridge Box Office Rush Takes a Holiday - The Numbers

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Box Office Rush Takes a Holiday

December 3rd, 2009

While there's no scientific basis for blaming Tryptophan for post-Thanksgiving dinner lethargy, there's ample evidence that the post-Thanksgiving weekend fills moviegoers with apathy. This weekend will be no different and despite there being four films that at least have a shot at placing in the top ten, none really have a shot at first place. That said, three of the four should top last year's number one new film and December should begin on a strong note.

After a surprisingly brisk opening, and a better than expected sophomore stint, it looks like The Blind Side will rise to the top of the chart this weekend. In fact, on Wednesday it was able to grab top spot away from New Moon, albeit by a tiny margin of less than $30,000. With better reviews and a more mature target audience, it should secure first place with just over $20 million over the weekend for a total of close to $130 million after three. At this pace, it should finish with between $175 million and $200 million, depending on how long it can last in theaters and how much of a boost it will get over Christmas.

New Moon will not hold on as well, and will likely fall to $18 million over the weekend, but that will still be enough to lift its running tally to $258 million. This is more than $60 million above the final domestic box office of Twilight, while it has a slim chance of reaching $300 million by the time its run is over.

We finally get to the first of the new releases, but there seems to be divided opinion on which film that will be. On the one hand, Armored is the easiest film to sell to moviegoers. However, Brothers is earning the best reviews. Finally, Everybody's Fine is opening in the most theaters.

Armored could have the best shot at third place, simply because it is targeting males from the mid-teens to mid-20s, which is the group that is most likely to go to the movies. It is also the group that is usually the least concerned with reviews, which is good because there are almost none of them. The movie does have a good cast and it could beat expectations with critics and earn overall positive reviews, but as long as its Tomatometer score is anywhere from 20% to 40% then it should earn just over $10 million over the weekend. Even if it just misses that mark, it could still grab third place, but it could be close.

The best-reviewed wide release of the week is Brothers, but at just 54% positive, it is hard to be too enthusiastic because it is the kind of film that is most dependent on good reviews to draw in moviegoers. And, with a focus on the after effects of war, it might not be the kind of film people want to check out at this time. Worst case scenario has the film missing the top five with under $5 million, but just over $9 million and fourth place is more likely.

Everybody's Fine could grab third place with $11 to $12 million; in fact, that's what I was thinking on Tuesday when we published our monthly preview. However, as some analysts have pointed out, Miramax recently shut down its New York office and its promotional budget has been slashed. This means the advertising campaign has not been as aggressive as it should have been, and many think it will struggle to make the top five with just $6 million over the weekend. I'm still hoping it will earn a spot in the top five with over $8 million, but if it struggles, either Old Dogs or 2012 will be there to take its place.

There is one final wide release of the week, but that's only if you stretch the definition of wide to nearly the breaking point. Transylmania is opening in just over 1,000 theaters, which is a bad sign. That might be a worse sign than its total lack of reviews. After all, the film's target audience is not the type that read reviews, but if this target audience can't find a theater nearby that's playing the movie, then there's no chance they can see it. Then again, this movie could be playing in every theater in North America and I think there would still be very few people who would watch it. Best case scenario has it earning close to $5 million, which would be enough for a spot low in the top ten. Worst case scenario has it missing the top ten, perhaps the top 20, with less than $1 million. I'm going with just under $2 million.

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Filed under: Everybody's Fine, The Twilight Saga: New Moon, Brothers, The Blind Side, Transylmania, Armored