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Three Films in the Hunt for Box Office Treasure

February 7th, 2008

We have two wide releases this week, Fool's Gold and Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins, but we could have a repeat champion atop the box office as Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour has proven strong during the week thus far.

Neither Matthew McConaughey nor Kate Hudson are particularly hot at the moment. In fact, neither has had a $100 million hit since they co-starred in How to Lose a Guy in Ten Days. The studio is obviously hoping Fool's Gold will rekindle the magic of that film. I don't think that is likely for a number of reasons. Firstly, while How to Lose a Guy wasn't a masterpiece, it still managed to earn vastly superior reivews than Fool's Gold has brought in so far. A Tomatometer score below 20% means a movie is worth avoiding, while a score in the single-digits is below acceptable, even on a guilty pleasure level. That said, it is the widest release of the week, it has the most star power, and it has the most aggressive ad campaign, so it could come out on top with just over $20 million this weekend. However, any weakness here and Miley Cyrus will be there to repeat as box office champion.

On the one hand, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour earned the best reviews for a wide release this year so far, scored a record-breaking number one finish, and has shown better than expected legs both over the weekend and during the week. On the other hand, it may have to deal with a powerful Fanboy effect (or should that be Fangirl effect). I think the limited number of theaters could help it here as many who wanted to see it last weekend were turned away because of the number of sellouts and will be eager to see the movie this weekend. And with a limited run, fans of hers won't want to wait until the crowds die down to see the movie. Look for $20 million over the weekend for a total of more than $60 million after 10 days, which puts it on pace for $100 million, depending on how many theaters keep the movie next weekend and the weekend after that.

Martin Lawrence is coming off the biggest hit of his career. Of course, the last time that happened, he made Rebound. I suspect Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins will perform better. In fact, it is tracking to open with more than that previous movie made in total. The film's reviews are not great at just a hair over 40% positive, but that is better than average for the year so far and good enough that it won't hurt its box office chances. The film appears to be tracking for third place with roughly $18 million. However, this is close enough to the two films above that it could easily surprise and score first place, which would make it Martin Lawrence's fourth film in a row to open in first place.

While there are three films battling for first place, there should also be three films battling for the final two spaces in the top five.

The Eye should slide into fourth place, but practically by default. The film has terrible reviews, opened a little below expectations last weekend, and has shown no strength during the week. It could drop more than 60% this weekend, which would give it just under $5 million. However, because the Super Bowl was last weekend, it should avoid a 60% drop-off, but 50% it likely and that would give it just over $6 million this weekend. But again, given its weakness, it could finish a couple of places lower on the charts.

27 Dresses surpassed The Eye on the daily charts this week, but direct competition will hurt it over the weekend leaving it in fifth place with just over $5 million. This will keep it ahead of Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour on the yearly chart, at least for the time being.

Like last week, Juno is tracking just outside the top five. But like last week, it will be close enough that it wouldn't be a shock if it squeezed in there with just over $5 million.

The final release of the week isn't truly wide, but it does have a shot at earning a place in the top ten. Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights - Hollywood to the Heartland is opening tomorrow in 800 theaters across the nation. Part road trip, part stand up concert, the film is earning mixed reviews but a fair amount of buzz. It wouldn't take a huge amount of money to reach the top ten, just over $3 million should do; however, the film is tracking at just under $3 million. Regardless of whether it makes it or not, it should be close.


Filed under: Juno, Fool's Gold, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins, The Eye, Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights - Hollywood to the Heartland, 27 Dresses