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Expectations Change Little

July 6th, 2007

With the strange release schedule this week, it seemed a smart plan to give updates just before the weekend starts. This should be the end of the scheduling weirdness as well, at least until the next holiday.

The Transformers got off to a very fast start and was able to maintain that beginning during the July 4th holiday. However, it was the only film in the top ten not to see double-digit increases from the 3rd to the 4th and its reviews have slipped below the overall positive level. That said, it is already a head of schedule and should add $65 million over the weekend and earn a sequel by Sunday.

On the other hand, Ratatouille has been solid as a rock and I see little reason to change my prediction. Look for just over $30 million over the weekend and a running tally of well over $100 million. Another hit for Pixar, despite the slower start.

Also performing up to expectations was Live Free or Die Hard and the $17 million 3-day weekend is still the target here. That will put its total box office in the low to mid $80 million and leave the film about a week away from $100 million.

Evan Almighty might not reach $100 million, but it should finish one place above expectations. But this is not because it is performing any better, (it is still tracking at just above $8 million), but its closest competition is sinking.

I originally expected License to Wed to bomb completely. However, while it has earned terrible reviews, it hasn't died as fast as expected. That said, its weekend numbers are still being downgraded and now it might not reach $8 million from Friday to Sunday. It should still earn more than $25 million in total, but not a whole lot more.

Remember, our latest box office contest ends in just a few hours, so if you were waiting till the last minute to get every piece of box office data you could, now is the time to enter.


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Filed under: Transformers, Ratatouille, Live Free or Die Hard, Evan Almighty, License to Wed