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This Weekend Looks Anything But Super

February 4th, 2005

Super Bowl weekend is usually a horror story for theaters as most people stay at home to watch the game, or at least soak in the hype surrounding the game. The big game is such a threat to the box office that the Super Bowl Weekend is historically the third worst weekend of the year, (the Post Labor Day and Post Thanksgiving weekends being numbers one and two respectively). This year, two films are being released with two different strategies for success.

Boogeyman is the latest horror flick to hit the screens, and it's a good genre to release on Super Bowl weekend since they tend to be very front-loaded anyway. Compared to last weekend's winner, this film doesn't have the star power, nor the advanced buzz and its reviews are nearly non-existent, which is never a good sign. Add it up and you get a $17 million opening and an easy first place finish.

Combine the horror genre, the weak reviews, the direct competition and the Super Bowl Weekend, and a 50% drop-off is almost guaranteed for Hide & Seek. Even so, a sophomore stint of just over $10 million is strong given the film's budget.

Are We There Yet? barely dropped at the box office last weekend, and while this weekend's drop-off with be huge in comparison it will still be a strong 40% to $10 million. That's enough to put the film's box office north of $50 million.

Coming close behind should be Million Dollar Baby, with just over $9 million for the weekend. Even with strong legs and a serious Oscar bounce, this film will have a hard time living up to Clint Eastwood's previous film.

The Aviator could make its final appearance in the top five with just over $5 million. It all depends on how well the final new release does.

Speaking of which, The Wedding Date is giving Alone in the Dark some serious competition in the worst movie of the year competition. I wasn't expecting the film to be a critical darling; in fact, I was only expecting between 20% and 30% of the reviews to be positive. But right now it only has one positive review out of thirty, and even that review is quite critical of the film. The good news is, this film is aimed at adult females, who are less likely to be interested in the big game. Bad news: unlike some genres, films aimed at adult females are more susceptible to poor reviews, so I'm adjusting my prediction lower to just $5 million for opening weekend and $15 million overall.

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Filed under: The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby, Hide and Seek, Boogeyman, The Wedding Date, Are We There Yet?