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2004 Finally Shows Signs of Life

February 27th, 2004

Thanks to the controversy surrounding The Passions of the Christ, 2004 should finally start making up some ground on 2003. Even with the Oscars on Sunday 2003, Passions alone will boost the box office. But the other three movies probably wouldn't even register on the radar during a normal weekend.

The Passions of the Christ opened on Wednesday and opened huge pulling in $23 million, (about 50% more than predicted.) The drop-off on Thursday was a little deeper than expected, percent wise, but the actual total was still higher than expected. Look for $56 million this weekend.

It looks like 50 First Dates's third weekend drop-off will be the same as its second. An $11 million take will also but the film just one week from breaking $100 million, although Passions may beat it to that milestone.

Ashley Judd moves closer to obscurity with here latest film Twisted. Reviews currently sitting at only 2% positive and 0% for the cream of the crop. The only thing this film has going for it is star power, and its cast is not big of a box office draw. So this movie should open rather poorly with just $7 million before disappearing from theatres shortly.

I don't understand the marketing for Broken Lizard's Club Dread. The first Broken Lizard's movie, Super Troopers could only manage 35% positive reviews and $18.5 million at the box office. So why is the marketing for this one push the connection so strongly? Club Dread is opening in slightly more theatres, and with slightly better reviews and should pull in slightly more during its opening weekend at $6.5 million.

Last weekend Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen was the only new film to beat expectations. And this weekend it should hold onto most of its box office this weekend. Look for $6 million and a soft fifth place finish.

Is it a sequel, a prequel or just the retelling of an old story? Havana Nights is looking like the big disaster this weekend. No star power, very poor reviews, small theatre count, almost non-existent ad campaign. An opening weekend of just $5 million is in store, but $4 million or less wouldn't surprise me.

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Filed under: The Passion of the Christ, 50 First Dates, Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen, Twisted, Havana Nights: Dirty Dancing 2, Club Dread