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Is any Movie Going to set the Box Office on Fire?

April 23rd, 2004

Just the two wide releases this week targeting two entirely different audiences. So we could have two break out hits this week. Then again, probably not. April started out ok, but it has really started to suffer and it doesn't look better next weekend. Summer can't start too soon.

The first staring role for Jennifer Garner is looking likely to top the charts this week. 13 Going On 30 tells a story very reminiscent of Big, ok, maybe reminiscent isn't a strong enough word, it is almost a remake. Reviews are strong but not spectacular and should neither help nor hurt the final box office. What will help its box office is the wide opening; 3,438 theatres is one of the widest openings of all time and the third highest for April. Sony must really have high hopes for this film. Either that or April has been so weak that there're many, many free screens. Look for $22 million this weekend and reasonable legs.

Man on Fire is a difficult move to gage. Despite the weakness in Denzel Washington's latest couple of items, he's still a huge star with two Oscar wins. However, the lack of a strong ad campaign is a source of worry; granted, I haven't been watching a whole lot of TV lately, but I should have been seeing more ads by now. Reviews are also lower than his career average. However, it opened on Wednesday in two theatres, one in New York and the other in Los Angeles and earned a per theatre average of nearly $10,000 in the one day. I expect it to earn barely more than half that over the weekend taking in $15 million.

Since its monster opening on Friday, Kill Bill: Volume 2's run has been very similar to Volume 1's. So look for a sophomore stint that is also very similar at $13 million.

The Punisher is cruising to a $7 million second weekend. That will lead to a total box office less than the previous Marvel Comic movie. Of course, it will have similar box office to production budget.

Surprisingly Johnson Family Vacation should manage one last weekend in the top five with just under $4 million. Last weekend that figure wouldn't have been enough to make it in the top ten.

On last note, Clifford's Really Big Movie is being released on less than 500 theatres to poor reviews. I swear this movie was already released. I remember reading box office results, (roughly $500,000 or just over $1000 per theatre.) But I can't find this information anywhere.

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Filed under: Hulk, Man on Fire, Kill Bill: Volume 1, Kill Bill: Volume 2, The Punisher, Johnson Family Vacation, 13 Going On 30