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It Must be August

August 6th, 2004

The streak of massive hit after massive hit is over as August begins. For the first time in nearly 2 months the number one film at the box office probably won't have a $10,000 per theatre average.

Director Michael Mann has built up quite a reputation, at least critically. At the box office, however, he has yet to have a break out hit with Heat's $86 million being his top draw. And Collateral is keeping up his streak with the reviewers, but will it be able to be his break out hit? Yes and no. An opening of $30 million will be twice as large as his previous best, but $100 million probably be the top of the overall box office hopes. That's still his best, but not quite the break out his deserves.

Since its debut last Friday, The Village has seen its daily numbers take a real hit, a Hulk-like hit. Ok, maybe it's not quite that bad, but it's very close. In its first week of release, Hulk lost 83.2% of its daily box office while The Village lost 82.2%. A 60% drop is almost guaranteed at this point and if it dropped 70% I wouldn't be that surprised. For my prediction, I split the difference and came up with $18 million.

The Bourne Supremacy drops another place this week, but with $14 million this weekend it will top its predecessor. But it won't live up to initial predictions.

The Manchurian Candidate's weekday numbers are not as strong as I had hoped, so the film might not have Denzel Washington's usual long legs. A second weekend drop-off to $12 million is just a 40% drop; that's still good, just not great.

The counter programming film this week is Little Black Book is, to be generous, a little weak. With a Tomatometer reading of just 24% positive, there's little to recommend this film. Even so, with the weak competition the film will easily finish in the top five with $10 million.


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Filed under: The Bourne Supremacy, The Village, Collateral, The Manchurian Candidate, Little Black Book