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The Summer is Officially Over

August 9th, 2004

Sometime in August the summer box office season ends, and it pretty easy to see when that happens. Last year it was the fourth weekend when the box office dropped 31.1%. The year before that it was the third weekend with its 22.4% drop. This year summer couldn't even last one weekend in August as it dropped 27.9% from last weekend and 19.9% from last year. The drop in weekend's overall box office was so steep that it took a real bite out of 2004's year to date lead over 2003, which now sits at 4.7%.

It looks like the moviegoers didn't buy Tom Cruise as a bad guy. Collateral, which earned some high praise, wasn't able to match expectations with only a $24.7 million opening. And given the greatly reduced legs the industry has in recent years, it is doubtful the film will hit $100 million, putting an end to his latest streak.

The Village didn't break Hulk's record for biggest second weekend drop-off for a number one movie. But it did come in second. Its sophomore stint was off 67.5% from it opening, landing at just $16.5 million. Even so, $100 million is all but guaranteed at this point as it should at least come close enough for Disney to give it an extra push. However, even if it does cross $100 million, it will be a pyrrhic victory at the total budget is probably out of reach.

The first, and only film in the top five to match expectations is The Bourne Supremacy at $14.4 million. The film took only 3 weeks to top the original at the box office and should finish in the $150 million range.

The Manchurian Candidate's second weekend performance was better than most films, but with only $10.3 million, (a nearly 49% drop) it won't come close to its $80 million production budget.

Rounding out the top five, almost by default, was Little Black Book with $7.1 million. That's not enough to be considered a success, nor will it be considered a critical success. If it has better than expected legs and a stronger international showing, then the film might make a profit on the home market. But that's very unlikely at this stage.


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Filed under: The Bourne Supremacy, Hulk, The Village, Collateral, The Manchurian Candidate, Little Black Book