Will Audiences Hold a Grudge?

October 22, 2004

It's one week from Halloween, and that can only mean one thing. It's Christmas time! That's right, the first Christmas movie of the year is coming to theatres. Sigh. The only Christmas movie you can legitimately watch at this time of year is The Nightmare Before Christmas.

Coming in first place should be the remake of the Japanese horror film, The Grudge. I was expecting better things from this film, but the reviews are sub par and the marketing campaign has not been as tight as it could be. Industry tracking has it finishing under $20 for the weekend, which would put it at around $50 million total.

Shark Tale will finally drop from the top spot, but it will still earn an impressive $14 million over the weekend. It's already in the top ten for the year and after this weekend it should be ahead of Troy for eighth place.

A large increase in its theatre count won't give Shall We Dance? a boost in at the box office. But it should stop it from dropping as fast as it would otherwise drop. Bringing in another $9 million will look good at first glance, but that still represents a serious drop on a per theatre basis.

Friday Night Lights legs are much better than the yearly average. But with a box office of just $7 million this weekend, it won't have the massive legs that other hits have had.

Despite earning strong reviews, Team America: World Police had a disappointing start last weekend. And now the fanboy effect is going to kill it this weekend. Look for its box office to be cut in half to just $6 million, which could still be enough to finish in the top five.

The last film to open wide this week could be an unmitigated disaster. Why will Surviving Christmas flop? Could it be the hideous reviews? Perhaps it will be the curse of Ben Affleck? Or maybe it's just too damn early for a Christmas movie. Whatever the cause, this movie should take in less than $6 million and miss the top five.

One last note, I ♥ Huckabees expands into nearly 800 theatres this weekend, and it should have a good shot at making it in the top ten.


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Filed under: Shark Tale, The Grudge, Friday Night Lights, Shall We Dance?, Team America: World Police, I Heart Huckabees, Surviving Christmas